Innovations 2010 Teaching Dynamic Skills for Renewable Energy and HealthcareCareers Jeffrey Strauss Northwestern University BCICS NSF I/UCRCTIM
AGENDA • The Proposal (1) • 2. The Context and Problem • 3. The Tools • 4. The Exercise • 5. The Proposal (2); The Resources • 6. The Wrap-Up, Invitation and Where from Here
PLANNED FIPSE PROPOSAL/PROJECT (1) • TARGETED DOMAINS: Health, Renewable Energy - augment, complement curricula • RATIONALE: • High national priority, job potential but also significant challenge to traditional career planning, teaching and curricula • High complexity, volatility and uncertainty along multiple dimensions (many competing stakeholders; evolving technologies with disparate characteristics; significant political, economic, demographic, cultural, regulatory and industry structure factors; international competition and global developments also impact along with constraining change-resistant legacy systems and mindsets) • A moving target for education • May be extreme example of issues increasingly facing course and curricula planners • Available materials are inadequate; enhanced coordination, alignment within and across schools and with industry is needed • Hard to measure progress and impact (new metrics needed)
PLANNED FIPSE PROPOSAL/PROJECT (2) • EVOLVING ADVISORY GROUP • Representatives from Intel (Digital Health), IBM (Global University Relations and Innovation, also National Research Council Workforce Committee and Women in Science), Rockwell Automation, 2 start-ups • NU faculty from engineering (materials science, chemistry, Argonne, Northwestern Solar Energy Research), management (heath industry, organization behavior, technology management), Initiative for Sustainability and Energy at Northwestern, Searle Center for Teaching Excellence, political science, education, global heath • National Network for Health Career Programs in Two-Year Schools, Illinois Community College Sustainability Network, Devry, Inc • Global Advanced Technology Innovation (GATIC) industry-academic consortium
BROAD CONTEXT The following 9 slides are extracted from Shift Happens posted to slide share.net by Jeff Brenman adapted from a presentation by Karl Fisch
ANOTHER VIEW OF THE CHANGING CONTEXTUAL CHALLENGE More science than engineering-driven • Globalization • Technologies • Markets • Finance • Competition • Operations • Standards • Risks Convergences • Emergence • Technologies • Markets • Competition • Legacy • Org structure • Processes • Procedures • Disciplines • Infrastructure • Assumptions Org / ecosystem transformation Varying Meaning and Impact; Changing Stakeholders and Futures; Disruptive innovation • Local, Regional, Global • Social and • Environmental Pressures Sustainability Traditional corporate functions and academic disciplines Apply industry-derived tools New skills 15
THE HISTORICAL S, T & A CO-EVOLUTION PROCESS Specialization Convergence/Divergence SCIENCE • Rapid Change • New Competencies • Co-evolution • New Value Basis • Service • Extended Enterprises • New Players • Globalization TECHNOLOGY NBIC Knowledge Knowledge and Telecom Industries Energy APPLICATIONS Manufacturing and Transportation Industries Materials Commerce & Crafts Population Land Agriculture Future? Time Now Early History 17th Century Industrial Revolution 1900‘s 16
Resulting conditions and challenge • VUCA • Volatile • Uncertain • Complex • Ambiguous • Wicked problems of change & innovation 17
WICKED PROBLEMS Distinguishing characteristics: No unique “correct” view of the problem or single solution. Solutions not right or wrong but better or worse or “good enough” Solutions inform problem definition; problems and solutions must be assessed simultaneously or iteratively Most problems are interwoven with other problems; a solution to one may reveal, exacerbate or create another Many possible starting (intervention) points No clear “stopping” point where problem is solved – but decisions must be made Resistant to change Multiple competing stakeholders Data often uncertain or misleading; prior experience and “rules of thumb” may not apply Mistakes can be disastrous, but most wicked problems are urgent 18
As the University of Michigan Millennium Project noted in 2008, • “Entirely new paradigms for [engineering] education are needed: • Among drivers cited: • “To respond to the incredible pace of intellectual change (e.g., from reductionism to complexity, from analysis to synthesis, from disciplinary to multidisciplinary, from local to global.” • “To provide engineering students with the ability to adapt to new technologies (e.g., from the microscopic level of info-bio-nano to the macroscopic level of megacities and global systems). • “To accommodate a far more holistic approach to addressing social needs and priorities, linking social, economic, environmental, legal, and political considerations with technological design and innovation.”
Needed skills and teaching / learning challenges • Tolerate ambiguity and adjust to continual change • Quickly assess underlying drivers and roots • Deep sensitivity to critical contexts • Bridge, benefit from, and integrate disparate disciplines and perspectives; recognize new and evolving interrelationships and assess implications • Recognize and assess full range of stakeholders – current and potential • Recognize and evaluate legacies and personal, organizational and national • biases • Identify and challenge assumptions • Specify critical tasks and requirements • Operate and innovate under VUCA / wicked conditions
How can we teach this and what does it mean for curricula planning? Can they be taught with current text books, cases, pedagogy and by currently trained instructors? In which teaching contexts and at what levels can these best be taught? What are long term but also interim measures/indicators that they are being conveyed? How can we ensure alignment with dynamic and uncertain industry needs?
Turning to the target domains of renewable energy and health care:A Future Job Ad “Automotive Hybrid and Fuel-Cell-Vehicle Research Engineer Major auto manufacturer seeks renaissance engineer with the ability to innovate and solve complex development problems for hybrid-electric, battery-electric, and fuel-cell-electric (hydrogen) vehicles. Must be able to leverage the commonality in electrical and hydrogen environments and coordinate the interfaces between various technological subsystems. Advanced degree in electrical engineering required. Experience in high-volume electronics manufacturing with some knowledge of electrochemistry and fuel-cell systems desired. Candidate should have some ability to work with high-voltage electric motors, lithium-ion batteries, regenerative braking systems, and wireless communication, plus proficiency with computer-aided design and modeling toolsets. “ from Jobs of Tomorrow: Classifieds Our Students Should Get Prepared to Read Amy Zuckerman http://www.edutopia.org/collaboration-age-technology-job-descriptions
Necessary steps for successful PV installation (from Career Road Map for the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Heat Spring Learning Institute Cambridge, MA 2009) “1. Articulate the benefits and sell the technology to a potential customer 2. Scope the proposed project: conduct a site evaluation and preliminary design 3. Understand the financing and act on behalf of the building owner to build a compelling financial proposal 4. Provide financing or incentives 5. Manufacture and distribute solar PV equipment and components 6. Understand and manage the installation process 7. Install the PV equipment and components 8. Pull permits and complete all electrical wiring, including a connection to the grid 9. Provide ongoing service and technical support “ But what if the available technologies and their trade-offs are undetermined or fundamentally shift? What if organic PV with very different properties and manufacturing methods becomes viable and preferred? What if government subsidies or other incentives allowing cost competitiveness of solar change? What if alternative energy sources become more viable?
Physicians (general and specialists) • Patients and families, caregivers • Pharmacies • Insurance companies • Managed Care companies (HMO’s, PPO’s • Drug companies • Hospitals; long-term care facilities (public and private) • Clinics, including retail clinics • Government regulators • Government funding (Medicare, Medicaid, VA) • Laboratories • Medical device developers (from a growing number of sectors) • Technology developers' and investors • Medical schools and training programs • Society; others? Complexity: Healthcare Stakeholders – how many can you name? How are they interrelated?
So what can we do? • To prepare for such a complex, dynamic and uncertain future either as a student or as a course/curricula planner requires (in addition to current curricula): • envisaging possibilities and assessing their implications • This, in turn, requires: • understanding, even embracing the complexity • systematically identifying and evaluating key underlying drivers and conditions, how they interrelate and could play out and • recognizing and challenging what you don’t know and what you are assuming • developing mechanisms to monitor evolving conditions • ….. And then translating insights into robust strategy (and skills responsive to change AND • ensuring reasonable short -term decisions that align (dynamically) with evolving industry recognized needs! • Luckily, there are tools (if not apps) for that.
INDUSTRY DERIVED INTEGRATED TOOLS Scenario planning to expose assumptions, suggest possible futures, build and challenge the robustness of strategies under varying possible conditions; Corporate product/technology roadmappingto lay out tasks, potential obstacles and resources requirements over time to reach a goal. Multi-scenario task mapping highlights variations across scenarios to ensure strategic robustness and agility in highly complex and volatile contexts. Inputs Underlying requirements, cascading impact, critical points/root cause (UCCP) analysis applied to observed conditions and strategic options to assess key underlying issues, downstream effects and trade-offs; Mind mapping to encourage identification of new options and potential threats, highlight evolving interrelationships and capture and assess disparate views Domain mapping to consolidate multiple domain-defining decision factors, define intermediate and ultimate goals, stimulate broadened assessment of required and available competitive priorities
An Integrated Analytic/Planning Process Drivers Contextual issues Interrelationships timing Assumptions Tasks Requirements Stakeholder analysis Mindmapping UCCP Analysis Backcasting Domain Mapping Scenario Planning Roadmapping Scenario variations Multi-scenario Task Mapping 27
TOOLS ILLUSTRATION Destruction of cultivated land Many farms chose to cultivate marginal fields increasing effect of winds Dust Bowl Consecutive years of very dry weather Mass migrations Dust loading in atmosphere reduces rainfall exacerbating conditions Plants, crops die increasing spread of bare soil Past Now Future Vision Economic, social strain on other regions String winds erode soil Cascading Underlying Central Scenario 4 Scenario B TIME Mindmapping Scenario planning UCCP Analysis Roadmapping Multi-scenario task mapping Domain mapping
Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis: • Shows what life might be like in a changed operating environment (not forecasting) • Facilitates identifying and challenging assumptions and shows how they are important • Demonstrates how factors are related and the complex impact of changes where one change leads to another • Reveals comparative strengths and weaknesses of competitors under different conditions and identifies possible new threats and opportunities • Tests the viability of strategic options.
Scenarios help answer: • What could happen? • What would happen if it did (cascading • impact)? • How would we notice it beginning? • What would we do differently? • What can we make happen? What can we • avoid? • What options do we have? • What action should we take?
1930’s (US) Dust Bowl UCCP Example Many farms chose to cultivate marginal fields increasing effect of winds Destruction of cultivated land Dust Bowl Consecutive years of very dry weather Mass migrations Dust loading in atmosphere reduces rainfall exacerbating conditions Plants, crops die increasing spread of bare soil Strong winds erode soil Economic, social strain on other regions Cascading Underlying
UCCP Hydrogen auto fuel example Hydrogen fuel requires Hydrogen source (usually water catalysis) - requires Storage, equipment and distribution (in cars and stations) - requires Car redesign - assumes Distribution stations - requires Transformation of current gas stations or new stations - assumes Consumer demand (but chicken and egg)
Global Warming Issues (US corporate perspective) • Risks • Regulatory risk • US (federal, state, local) • Global • Product and technology risk • Costs of converting • Technology commercialization • Emergence of new technology; reliability • Litigation risk • Organizational risk • Transformation, new skills, timing of investment • Pressure on suppliers; sources of new approaches • Reputation risk • Risks to customers • Physical risk (draughts, floods, etc. – damage, insurance) • Financial risk – who will pay, how much for developing world • Other uncertainties • Causes of warming • Timing, unevenness of impact • Competitor actions • Unforeseen, cascading impacts • C. Opportunities • Complex drivers • Other?
Time to Exercise • Implications of a healthcare scenario for skills, education and curricula • Assessing factors impacting success of an alternative energy product/service
Healthcare Scenario Assessment Exercise from What have We Learned about Healthcare in the Last Decade? (byJim Carol (futurist)(http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/04/healthcare-2020html.html What would the following mean for education and curricula (and skills)? • Focus has shifted to preventative care to the extent patients are treated for the conditions we know they are likely to develop, rather than principally for those that they already have. • Focus on “customer service” as job #2 (#1 remains efficient and effective delivery of care) reshapes healthcare delivery and the philosophical underpinning of the system, so that “customer focused, friendly, fast, subject to expectation metrics makes it more consistent with other industries.” • “When Silicon Valley got involved in a big way, everything changed” launching “new products, new business models, scientific discovery tools, bio-informatics platforms that provided the foundation for diagnostic medicine, and many other incredible items.” • “Bio-connected devices — home health care medical monitoring, diagnosis and treatment devices [lead to] a renaissance” in the modality of care. “A good proportion of both critical and non-critical care patients [will] receive …at home… [causing a] transition to a virtual community oriented caregiving strategy which has resulted in cost reductions and a refocus of critical health care spending” away from inpatient services. • Medical packaging transitions from a “passive protector of the product, to becoming an active component of the overall effectiveness of the particular medication” — prescription bottles will have internet enabled RFID tags with bio-sensors, providing specific information to patient’s provider and general information to pharmaceutical clinical trials about patient’s current condition and the efficacy and interactions of the drug. • Knowledge and innovation will be so dynamic and fast-changing that “the average doctor and nurse [must] refresh their entire knowledge base every 18 months.”
Energy analysis exercise assignment “Map” critical factors, and how they may change, affecting success of a renewable energy product/service. How do they interrelate? Highlight uncertainties. How might this impact assumptions in current curricula? Consider: different renewable as well as traditional energy technologies, economic, regulatory and other potential drivers and constraints.
Defined Tasks and Sequence Time 1 2 3 4 5 • Resources required • in place • process to acquire • Obstacles to overcome • strategies and associated • requirements Roles and responsibilities Related to each task Drivers - Context - Change Simplified Roadmapping Process Where you are Where you want to be
Targets/Priorities Position/Strategy New Technologies Applications Customer Drivers Drivers/Challenges Technology Push MarketPull Industry Capability and Technology Roadmap Build an Action Plan and Investment Strategy Summary and Action Plan (To-do) Define the TechnologyInfrastructure and Envision Technology Advances Capability/Technology Roadmap (Know-how) Risk Roadmap Identify R&DChallenges and Research Objectives Direction(Know-what) Understand Customer Markets and Stakeholders’ Needs Map to Investments Definitionand Scope(Know-why) Map to Elements Action Summary Technology/Capability Roadmap Industry Architecture Industry Direction (Know-when) © 2010 The Albright Strategy Group, LLC
Corporate Capability/Technology Roadmap © 2010 The Albright Strategy Group, LLC
Industry Roadmapping • An industry-wide, Futures Oriented, Strategic • and Tactical Consensus Process: • Defines major categories and goals • Baseline of “best” current thinking and practice • Help set industry directions and standards • Identify critical gaps • Stimulate new concepts • Time-based milestones • Enough detail to enable implementation actions • Foster industry collaboration • Inform and coalesce suppliers and customers • Influence national policies
Some Healthcare Roadmaps (with limits) © 2010 The Albright Strategy Group, LLC
Energy Roadmaps • There are many energy industry roadmaps including a growing number directly related to renewable energy. These can be found at the state, regional, international (Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia) and national US level. A lot stem directly or indirectly from the US Dept. of Energy are regularly updated and include: • Industrial Technologies Program (ITP) supported roadmaps in • renewable energy targeted maps: • US Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap (2002) • National Algal Biofuel Technology Roadmap • US Small Wind Turbine Industry Roadmap
PLANNED FIPSE PROPOSAL/PROJECT (3) • PROPOSED ELEMENTS • Develop broadly inter-disciplinary, learning/development academic-industry community • Enhance alignment with industry through assessment of industry roadmaps and collaboration on evolution of related curricula/skills dynamic mapping • Evolve self-driven, instructor modifiable model course modules/materials; Approaches will be demonstrated in selected school test sites; Small awards will stimulate others to develop materials • Conduct electronically accessible faculty and administrator/curricula planner/career counselor training conferences and discussion forums • Adapt introduce and apply industry-derived tools • Define and apply evidence-based and real-time metrics
PLANNED FIPSE PROPOSAL/PROJECT (4) • PROGRAMS ALREADY IN PLACE (see www. • Industry-academic discussion forums: • Foundation for Innovation and Change in Health (FICH) – over 40 participants from a dozen disciplines • FICH focuses on needs, contexts, facts and issues of next generation innovation in the changing worlds of health service, in both developed and developing nations. Healthcare exemplifies the class of “wicked innovation problems” requiring decision-making under very complex, uncertain and ambiguous conditions. The Forum stimulates discussion among participants from a wide range of disciplines and sectors, including academia and industry, which might not normally be involved or focused on the medical domain but could have important insights. A key initiative of the Forum is exploration/adaptation of industry innovation roadmapping. • Foundation for Innovation in New Energy(FINE – in formation) • FINE focuses on needs, contexts, facts and issues of next generation innovation in the changing worlds of renewable energy including attention to the interplay with critical issues in water and health management.
FORUM FOR INNOVATION & CHANGE IN HEALTH (FICH) WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 17, 2010 MINI-CONFERENCE INVITATION Industry - University Health Innovation Roadmapping Noon - 4:00pm (lunch provided) Kellogg (2001 N. Sheridan, Evanston, IL)) Industry Roadmapping, carried out on a regular basis in a growing number of sectors, establishes a baseline of “best” current thinking and practice. It helps build consensus on industry directions and standards, highlights critical gaps and potential paths to address them, establishes future milestones, and stimulates collaboration across key industry stakeholders and suppliers. Resulting roadmaps influence local, national and even global policies. Although some specialized healthcare roadmaps have evolved, healthcare is different from other industries. This can be recognized in the level of complexity and uncertainty along multiple dimensions - from regulatory, safety, political, financial (including pay models and who makes related decision), social, technology change (including impacting technologies from other industries such as IT and nanoscience) and more. These conditions challenge traditional approaches to defining a field and engaging the desired range of stakeholders and advancing to practical solutions. Thus there are multiple silos of effort to address healthcare issues with insufficient productive cross-communication and key gaps and useful insights may be missed. Building on what could be NU’s “neutral” position and multi-disciplinary expertise, as well as CTIM’s relevant global experience and contacts, we will select target focus/gap areas that can benefit from the addition of non-traditional perspectives. Participation from faculty and students in social sciences, management, engineering, and medicine along with industry and community representation will be invited. Speakers at Roadmapping Tools Introduction Session: Dr. Richard Albrightbrings more than 25 years of experience in technology planning, strategy development, systems engineering and product development, with particular emphasis on corporate and industry roadmapping with industry and government clients including medical technology, pharma, and diagnostic companies and programs. He was Director, Technology Strategy and Assessment at Bell Labs. Celeste Fralickis Director of Biomedical Engineering in the Digital Health Group at Intel Corporation. She was a key developer of Intel’s initial biotechnology strategies, product qualification and product life cycle programs and was active in refining the firm’s risk management strategies. Previously, Celeste was with Medtronic Corporation, Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation, and Texas Instruments. Her response will include discussion of product and modeling initiatives responding to evolving industry conditions Ravi Nemana is Special Advisor for Health Care at the Center for Information Technology in the Interest of Society (CITRIS), a four-campus, University of California program that applies fundamental advances in science and technology to societal-scale problems such as water, energy, education, and health care. With 18 years of health care and technology experience, he architected the nationally recognized UC Davis Telemedicine Program. Ravi guides policy makers and nonprofit organizations regarding emerging health technologies and service innovation.