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Icosystem Corporation and Predictive Analytics

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  1. Icosystem Corporation and Predictive Analytics IOP 2006 January 18, 2006

  2. Who knows what the future holds? Predicting the future requires more than looking at the past…

  3. Who knows what the future holds?

  4. Predictive Analytics Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques that don’t just extrapolate the past into the future. • Agent Based Modeling • Interactive Search “History shows you don't know what the future brings.” -Rick Wagoner, GM CEO

  5. Who uses our models? Government: • Air Force Research Lab • U.S. Army • DARPA • DISA • IDA • NUWC • OFT • ONR Corporate: • Aventis • BP • DuPont • Eli Lilly • Humana • La Poste • PepsiCo • Schlumberger • Unilever

  6. What is Agent Based Modeling? • Bottom-up simulations from the perspective of an individual person/company/market • Interactions between individuals change behaviors during course of simulation • Global trends emerge, rather than being determined up front

  7. Emergent behavior: the Icosystem game

  8. Computer simulation of the Icosystem game See demo at http://www.icosystem.com/game.htm

  9. Why is this interesting? The Icosystem Game:a deceptively simple complex system • Knowing the behavior of every individual is not enough to predict system behavior • Slight changes in rules or interactions can lead to dramatic changes in system behavior • The traditional reductionist (i.e., divide-and-conquer) does not work!

  10. Supermarket Shopper Behavior Parking lot Deli target Frozen food CSD Produce entrance Entrance Registers • Client:Fortune 500 consumer goods company • Challenge:Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket • How do they navigate? • What do they purchase? • Where to place products? • Complexities: • Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior • Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome:Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q2’05.

  11. Predictive Analytics Technique #2: Interactive Search “I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what I am in search of.” -Michel de Montaigne

  12. Drug Discovery • Client:Fortune 100 pharma company • Challenge:Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development • Complexities: • Vast search space • Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified • Huge expense for each failure • Outcome:Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback

  13. Interactive Search applied to Open Source information biathlon bronze elections success brave engineer skiing explosion defend uniforms ceremony gold checkpoint Army What if we could easily monitor communication volume AND content? Marines skating national truck barricade save United States bus car olympic liberty pins transit winter Torino bobsled rings build Iraq road bridge war bomb pride guns pedestrian security torch destroy helicopter kill goat Baby Noor Festival of Eid English pencil lentil storage mosque school preparation Shi’a Sunni bike learn pastry prayer Muslim cafe eggplant safety laugh peace food religion forgive children rice lamb burghal buying save freedom train toys doll shortage defend friend spices fundamental play Xbox 360 US troops safety saffron war Al Qaeda jihad

  14. Interactive Search applied to Open Source information seeds drought labor farmers water rice irrigation burghal shortage Oil-for-food US troops heat giant hamsters safety starvation refrigeration destroy rations destroy starvation US troops unleash giant hamsters hamster plague airdrop hamsters of mass destruction biathlon bronze success brave engineer skiing explosion defend uniforms ceremony gold checkpoint Army Marines skating national truck barricade save United States bus car olympic liberty pins transit winter Torino bobsled rings build Iraq road bridge war bomb pedestrian destroy helicopter kill goat Baby Noor Festival of Eid English pencil lentil storage mosque school preparation Shi’a Sunni bike learn pastry prayer Muslim cafe eggplant safety laugh peace food religion forgive children rice lamb burghal buying save freedom train toys doll shortage defend friend spices fundamental play Xbox 360 US troops safety saffron war Al Qaeda jihad

  15. Come see us at our table! “My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far today, I have finished 2 bags of M and M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already.” - Dave Barry

  16. Online Shopping

  17. Online Shopping

  18. Online Shopping

  19. Online Shopping

  20. Online Shopping