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Improvements of the Netherlands’ Greenhouse Gas Inventory & resulting (lower) uncertainties ?. Uncertainty Workshop, Helsinki 5-6 September 2005 H.H.J. Vreuls, SenterNovem. Dutch GHG emissions Recalculations of GHG emissions Uncertainty analysis TIER 1 uncertainty assessment

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improvements of the netherlands greenhouse gas inventory resulting lower uncertainties

Improvements of the Netherlands’ Greenhouse Gas Inventory & resulting (lower) uncertainties ?

Uncertainty Workshop,

Helsinki 5-6 September 2005

H.H.J. Vreuls, SenterNovem

outline
Dutch GHG emissions

Recalculations of GHG emissions

Uncertainty analysis

TIER 1 uncertainty assessment

TIER 2 uncertainty assessment

Conclusions

Outline
ghg emissions netherlands
GHG Emissions Netherlands

1990: 211,7 Tg

2003: 214,8 Tg

reasons for recalculation 2005
Reasons for recalculation 2005
  • IPCC reporting requirements
    • Transparency
    • Completeness
    • Consistency in time series
    • Compliance with the IPCC guidelines
    • Accuracy
  • Results from improvement programme
  • Input from uncertainty analysis
recalculations and emission data in the base year 1990
Recalculations and emission data in the base year 1990

CO2: - 2,6 Tg (excluding LUCF)

+ 1,7 Tg (including LUCF)

CH4: - 1,5 Tg CO2-eq

N20: + 3,8 Tg CO2-eq

F-gases – 0,04 Tg CO2-eq

(1995)

tier 1 methodology uncertainties assumptions
All individual emissions sources are independent from each other

The emission probability shows normal (Gaussian) distributions

Uncertainties are smaller than + 60%

TIER 1 Methodology uncertainties; assumptions
no decrease of uncertainties after recalculations
No decrease of uncertainties after recalculations
  • Application of new methods
  • Uncertainties of newly identified key sources
    • CO2 emissions from LUCF
    • Indirect N2O emissions from agricultural soils
  • For F-gases higher quality activity data and more accurate emission data
tier 2 uncertainty analysis
Tier 2 uncertainty analysis
  • Correlations between emission sources
  • Specific probability density functions

Conducted in the Netherlands using 1990 and 1999 data

    • Using Monte Carlo method
    • Also qualitative uncertainty
qualitative uncertainty typology of uncertainties
Qualitative uncertainty:Typology of uncertainties
  • Uncertainty due to variability
    • Natural randomness
    • Value diversity
    • Behavioral variability
    • Social randomness
    • Technological surprise
  • Uncertainty due to limited knowledge
    • Measurable uncertainty
    • Structural uncertainty
uncertainty due to limited knowledge
Uncertainty due to limited knowledge
  • Measurable uncertainty
    • Inexactness
    • Lack of observation/measurements
    • Practical immeasurable
    • Conflicting information
  • Structural uncertainty
    • Reducible ignorance
    • Indeterminacy
    • Irreducible ignorance
elements in the update tier 2 about to start october 2005
Elements in the update TIER 2; about to start October 2005
  • Updated and new information on expert judgment
  • Key areas of interest for research
  • Sensibility analysis using min/max values from EU member states
  • Research on PDF and sources of uncertainty for selected areas
  • TIER 2 uncertainty analysis 1990-2003
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Uncertainty assessments (TIER1 and 2) are used as a tool to prioritise improvements for GHG emission inventory
  • More complex uncertainty assessments (TIER2) did not result in surprising, other insights
  • Changes in methods resulting in recalculation did not result in ‘ better’ uncertainty values
conclusions continue
Conclusions (continue)
  • Possible impact of methodological changes seems not to be included in uncertainty assessments
  • Update TIER 2 based on recalculated data and to justify no follow up of new TIER 2 for the next five years