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LLOYD GEORGE MANAGEMENT The East-West Pendulum Revisited The Outlook for Asian and Emerging Markets Robert Lloyd George. January 2005. The East-West Pendulum. The East-West Pendulum Updated. CHINA 2005 vs CHINA 1990 GNP/Trade/Per Capita Income/Stock Market CHINA’s Impact on the World

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January 2005

LLOYD GEORGE MANAGEMENTThe East-West Pendulum RevisitedThe Outlook for Asian and Emerging MarketsRobert Lloyd George

January 2005



The east west pendulum updated
The East-West Pendulum Updated

  • CHINA 2005 vs CHINA 1990

    GNP/Trade/Per Capita Income/Stock Market

  • CHINA’s Impact on the World

    Manufacturing, Exports, Deflation/Inflation, Commodities

  • CHINA Investment opportunities and Risks


Indirect investment in china
Indirect Investment in China

  • Australian mining shares

  • Brazil iron ore/ Chilean copper

  • Hong Kong Real Estate

  • Japanese Machine Tools

  • Travel and Tourism (HK, Thailand, Malaysia)


China s impact on the world like japan 1980s 2005 2010
CHINA’s Impact on the World (like JAPAN 1980s) 2005-2010

  • Deflation or Inflation?

  • Chinese (like Japanese), buying Art treasures and property

  • CNOOC’s bid for UNOCAL and - LENOVO/IBM important pointers for the future


Investment outlook 2005
Investment Outlook 2005

  • US dollar recovery

  • Liquidity Squeeze

  • Steady growth in Asian economies

  • The key is the Asian Consumer (China, India)


Reits a new asian asset class
REITS - a new Asian Asset Class

  • US: and Australian / examples in past 20 years -

  • Japan, Singapore

  • Hong Kong

  • Cashflow - High Dividend Yield

  • Asian preference for property ownership


Lloyd george management
Lloyd George Management

  • US$5.5 Billion Assets Under Management

  • Largest Independent Investment “Boutique” in Asia

  • Founded 1992 - our vision is that CHINA and INDIA are 2 key Emerging Markets

  • Offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Bombay and London

  • 60 staff (20 investment professionals) worldwide


Investment philosophy
Investment Philosophy

  • Conservative, long term, stock-picking

  • Small cap and Mid cap (Find the “Microsoft of China 2015”)

  • High ROE, strong balance sheet and committed management with same interests as shareholders

  • Concentrated Asian Portfolio of 40 stocks - make “bets outside the benchmark”


Natural resources key investment theme
Natural Resources - Key Investment Theme

  • “BRIC” - Brazil / Russia / India / China

  • Food, oil and minerals

  • Risks are legal, political and corporate governance

  • Watch the Middle East - where will the oil price be in 2010?


Three geopolitical blocs
Three Geopolitical Blocs

  • USA, EU, and Asia

  • US-DEBT, THE DOLLAR, and “EMPIRE”

  • EU-EXPANDS FROM 15 To 33 nations (including TURKEY)

  • ASIA-CHINA/ASEAN FREE TRADE accord, and possible NEW ASIAN CURRENCY BLOC - China is the Regional Leader



Conclusion
Conclusion

  • The East West Pendulum has bounced back

  • Hong Kong still the place to be

  • LGM a reliable partner for Asian investment