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Regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme

41th Session of TC. approved WGM recommendation to authorize WGM/RSMC Tokyo to conduct a survey on the present status of Members in using storm surge models and to develop future plan for the establishment of a regional storm surge watch scheme suitable for the TC region. RSMC Tokyo.

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Regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme

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  1. 41th Session of TC approved WGM recommendation to authorize WGM/RSMC Tokyo to conduct a survey on the present status of Members in using storm surge models and to develop future plan for the establishment of a regional storm surge watch scheme suitable for the TC region. • RSMC Tokyo conducted a questionnaire survey on the present status of TC Members in using storm surge models in June 2009. Eleven Members replied to the questionnaire. Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam (Inland country: Lao PDR) Regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme

  2. Storm surge forecast:issuing operationally? Yes 8 (Method) Model 6 , Statistical 0 , Both 2 No 2 (Intention) Yes 1, No 1 • Storm surge warning: issuing operationally? Yes 9 (Method) Model 7 , Statistical 0 , Both 2 No 2 (Intention) Yes 1, No 0 • Tidal observations: conducting operationally? Yes 10 (by NMHSs) 5 , (by others) 5 No 1 (providing data) Yes 6 , No 1 • Needs of storm surge information provided by RSMC etc. Yes 8 (distribution map) Yes 8 , No 0 No 2 (time series chart) Yes 7 , No 0 Results of Questionnaire Survey

  3. ：moving direction of TC ：wind direction around TC Occurrence of Storm Surges • Moving direction relative to the coastline Storm surges are likely to occur around bays open southward when an intense typhoon moving northward is passing west of them. Occurrence of storm surges critically depends on TC tracks.

  4. Storm Surge Model (1.9km 1km-resolution) JMA Storm Surge Model Input • 5 possible TC tracks (position & intensity) 1. Center 2. Fastest 3. Rightmost 4. Slowest 5. Leftmost • bathymetry(Ocean Depths) • NWP model track In May 2009 6. wind & pressure • 6 model runs for 6 possible tracks • 8 times a day up to 33 hours ahead In Sep 2007

  5. FITOW (0709) Tokyo Bay JMA Storm Surge Model Products (1) - Storm Surge Distribution Map - Track Forecast for FITOW (0709)03UTC 6 Sep 2007 (leftmost path) (center path) (rightmost path) FT=18 03UTC 6 Sep 2007 initial

  6. 24-hour Track Forecast FITOW (0709) 9/6 00UTC 9/6 12UTC 9/7 00UTC 9/7 12UTC JMA Storm Surge Model Products (2) - Storm Surge Time Series Chart - Predicted storm surges at Tokyo point about 290 points along the coast of Japan

  7. Storm Surges Predictions 9/6 00UTC 9/6 12UTC 9/7 00UTC 9/7 12UTC Sea Level Predictions Astronomical tide 9/6 00UTC 9/6 12UTC 9/7 00UTC 9/7 12UTC JMA Storm Surge Model Products (3) - Sea Level Prediction - Storm surge + Astronomical tide Astronomical tides at a stationare calculated using tidal data archive at the station.

  8. Regional Storm Surge Watch SchemePossible Concept Storm Surge Prediction Center(s) (RSMC Tokyo) • Operate a storm surge model for TC area • Provide NMHSs of TC Members with storm surge guidance - storm surge distribution maps- storm surge & sea level time series charts Bathymetry & tidal data archive Storm surge guidance ( at a national level) NMHSs of TC Members DPP authorities • Issue storm surge forecasts and warnings • take appropriate action - evacuation order etc. • consider possible scenarios based on: • develop risk knowledge - tropical cyclone information & products- guidance by own & Center’s storm surge models - high risk areas- vulnerabilities of people Storm Surge Warnings End-Users (public, media etc.)

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