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Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”

Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”. Sultan Salim AL-Yahyai Fauzi Bader Al-Busaidi Khalid Khamis Al-Jahwari Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Sultanate of Oman. Location of Oman. Try To TUNE THE MODEL. HIGHLIGHTS THE

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Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”

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  1. Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF” Sultan Salim AL-YahyaiFauzi Bader Al-BusaidiKhalid Khamis Al-Jahwari Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Sultanate of Oman WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  2. Location of Oman WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  3. Try To TUNE THE MODEL HIGHLIGHTS THE STRENTHS & WEAKMESSES OF THE MODELS MONITORING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS Aim of the Project • TO EVALUATE THE FORECASTS OF OMAN REGIONAL MODEL (ORM). WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  4. Verification Scheme • Most representative Grid Point. • Interpolation of the surrounding Grid Points Design Issues • Stations Grouping • Station with similar topographical features • Costal Station • Actual Station height – model grid point height <= X m WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  5. T 2m ( C ) Max temp. 2m ( C ) Min Temp. 2m ( C ) TD 2m ( C ) MSL Pressure (hPa) FF 10m ( knots ) DD 10m (degrees). Total Presp. Amount of low clouds DPD Design Issues • Elements to be verified Continuous Elements Categorical Elements WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  6. 72h fct 60h fct 48h fct 36h fct 24h fct 12h fct 0h fct Model run utc 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 day A-3 A-3 A-2 A-2 A-1 A-1 A Design Issues • Forecast Range to be verified OBS WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  7. Design Issues • OBS Quality Control 1) Elements value thresholds 2) Comparing OBS with model first guess WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  8. Design Issues • Hit rate with a margin of error • Bias • Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): • Statistics to be used Categorical Elements Continuous Elements • Hit rate • Probability of detection(POD) • False Alarm Rate (FAR) • Threat Score (TS) • Frequecy bias(FB) • Heidke Skill Score ( HSS ) WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  9. MSS ormverif Windows based NWP machine Implementation OBS MOS My SQL ODBC DMO (FCT) WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  10. Main Menu WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  11. Averaging Data Plotter WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  12. Table Viewer WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  13. Future Work • Implementing the Interpolation verif. Schema • Superimposing the Results of the verif. For more than one model • Verifying the upper levels data • Verifying the Wave Model WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  14. ORMVERIF Availability • Package available on request for WMO members: • Brazilian navy, UAE Met., Vietnam met., malaysia met. • User Manual • Tech. Documentation WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  15. Thank You WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

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