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NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005. NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation— a NASA perspective. Matthew Garcia, Research Associate NASA-GSFC, Hydrological Sciences Branch (614.3) and UMBC GEST Center

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NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation— a NASA perspective


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noaa nws quantitative precipitation estimation a nasa perspective

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation—a NASA perspective

Matthew Garcia, Research Associate

NASA-GSFC, Hydrological Sciences Branch (614.3)

and UMBC GEST Center

with significant assistance from HSB members Christa Peters-Lidard,

David Toll, Matt Rodell, Brian Cosgrove, Charles Alonge, and others…

slide2

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NASA-GSFC Hydrological Sciences Branch Activities

Observations

Applications

Modeling and

Data Assimilation

slide3

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

Water

Management

Energy Forecasting

Aviation Safety

Carbon

Management

Coastal Management

Homeland

Security

Disaster Preparedness

Public Health

Agricultural

Competitiveness

Invasive Species

Community Growth

Air Quality

NASA Applications of National Priority

slide4

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

Scales of Interest

Global (e.g. GLDAS): ~25-km resolution

Continental (e.g. NLDAS): ~5-km resolution

Regional (e.g. LIS): ~1-km resolution

slide5

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NASA/GSFC

GMAO

NOAA NCEP

NASA/GSFC

Huffman

ECMWF

CMAP

Merged

Univ. AZ IR

NOAA

Stage-II

from Gottschalck et al. (2005, J. Hydromet., submitted)

slide6

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NLDAS Precipitation Fields:

Spatial Interpolation and Temporal Disaggregation

from Cosgrove et al. (2003, J. Geophys. Res.)

slide7

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

from Cosgrove et al. (2003, J. Geophys. Res.)

slide8

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NLDAS-E Precipitation Forcing – 15Z Dec 4, 2002

Stage II / CPC Merged (mm/hr)

EDAS (mm/hr)

CMORPH (mm/hr)

CMAP (mm/hr)

slide9

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

Observations

Model output

Assimilated output

GLDAS Snow Updates: DA using MODIS Observations

21Z 17 January 2003

Enh. MODIS Snow Cover (%)

Control Mosaic SWE (mm)

Assim. Mosaic SWE (mm)

SNOTEL/Co-op SWE (mm)

Midwestern U.S.

from Rodell and Houser, 2004

slide10

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

LDAS Collaborations

ECMWF

Surface Soil Moisture Initialization in

Coupled Land–Atmosphere Models

Example 24-Hour Atmospheric

Model Forecasts

Buffalo Creek

Basin

With Realistic Soil Moisture

Without Realistic Soil Moisture

Observed Rainfall for

Colorado Flood Event

0000Z to 0400Z 13 July 1996

(Chen et al., NCAR)

  • "The strong motivation for this land data assimilation and land-monitoring space mission such as Hydros is that the land states of soil moisture, soil ice, snowpack, and vegetation exert a strong control on ...the heating and moistening of the lower atmosphere…forecast of tomorrow's heat index, precipitation, and severe thunderstorm likelihood."
    • Louis Uccellini, NCEP
  • “The experience of the last ten years at ECMWF has shown the importance of soil moisture...Soil moisture is a major player on the quality of weather parameters such as precipitation, screen-level temperature and humidity and low-level clouds."
    • Anthony Hollingworth, ECMWF
slide11

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

Satellite Precipitation Observation: TRMM to GPM

Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM)

Single platform, multiple instruments, tropical coverage

10  85 GHz PMW radiometers (TMI)

13.6 GHz precipitation radar (PR)

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

Many platforms, multiple instruments, expanded coverage

10  109 GHz PMW radiometers (GMI)

Dual-frequency precipitation radar (GPR)

3- to 6-hour temporal sampling

Improved vertical resolution

slide12

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

  • DoD Future Combat System
  • Requirements for Soil Moisture
  • spatial resolution of 10-100 m
  • coverage area of 22,500 km2
  • product delivery within 96 hours of request
  • soil moisture to depths of 15-30 cm
  • thematic accuracies of 80 percent
  • global applicability

NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: USACE, USDA-ARS, UWy

Army Remote Moisture System (ARMS)

slide13

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

EOS-Terra

Terra

D. Boyle/DRI

NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: US Bureau of Reclamation

slide14

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NASA & Partner Research

DST Partnership Opportunity

Value & Benefits

Observation Products & Platforms

Topography: USGS, SRTM, GPS

Vegetation: AVHRR, MODIS

Weather: GOES, NPOESS

Precipitation: TRMM, CMORPH, CMAP, PERSIANN, NEXRAD, NWS & cooperative gauges

Snow Cover: MODIS, SNOTEL

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)

River Forecast System (RFS)

Component Models:

SAC-SMA(rainfall-runoff processes)

SNOW-17(snow physical processes)

Methods:

Multi-sensor precipitation estimation

Numerical integration

Data assimilation & validation

Evaluation Metrics:

Flood stage

Flood event spatial/temporal accuracy

Flood warning skill and false-alarms

Flash flood warning lead time

Critical Processes:

Snowmelt  Runoff conversion

Rainfall  Runoff conversion

Runoff routing

Stream & river routing

Critical Needs for Event Forecasting:

Antecedent & evolving soil moisture

Antecedent & evolving snow states

NOAA Mission Goals & Activities

Stream & river flow forecasting

Agricultural efficiency

Estuarine fisheries management

Mudslide hazard forecasting

Water quality forecasting

NOAA/NWS Operational Products

Flood watches & warnings

Flash flood prediction & warning

Disaster response

Additional & Potential DST Benefits

Model & DST validation

NWS RFC forecaster efficiency

Preparation for future datasets

Distributed model development

Weather Models & Tools

Models: GMAO, NCEP, NCAR, ECMWF, AGRMET, SNODAS

States: Cloud cover, Winds,

Water Vapor, Temperature

Fluxes: Radiation, Precipitation

data assimilation methods

NASA/GSFC Land Information System

Models: CLM, VIC, Noah, Mosaic, SSiB, HySSiB, CLSM, SAC-SMA, SNOW-17

Methods: Numerical integration,

Data assimilation & validation

States: Surface temperature, Snow cover & depth, Soil temperature & moisture

Fluxes: Evaporation, Transpiration, Precipitation, Runoff

models

states

INPUTS & OUTPUTS

OUTPUTS & OUTCOMES

IMPACTS

Figure 1: Proposed LIS-RFS Integrated Systems Solution architecture.

NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: NOAA-NWS Office of Hydrology

slide15

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NASA-GSFC HSB Proposed Partnership:

USGS and NOAA-NWS-NCEP/OH

slide16

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005

NASA’s interest in NOAA-NWS QPE/QPF Activities

  • Validation and application with non-traditional methods
    • LSM simulations
    • Data Assimilation
      • - Snow Cover
      • - Soil Moisture
      • - Surface Temperature
  • CONUS coverage is good, global coverage is better
  • 1-km (or better) gridded spatial resolution
  • 1-hour (or better) temporal resolution
  • Minimal product latency (for real-time applications)
  • Error propagation in land surface modeling
    • QPE process transparency
    • - Contribution sources

- Validation datasets

- Spatial and temporal error estimates

- Bias correction factors

- Adjustments in ZR retrieval

- Objective and subjective products

    • QPF product availability
      • - Convective/stratiform discrimination
      • - Ensemble statistics (or member values)