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Structural shift: the effect of a factor changes over time

Structural shift: the effect of a factor changes over time. Economy – h ealth Economy – thefts Economy - emigration. Are Recessions Good For Your Health?. Past times: No! Now: Yes? Economic indicators: - GDP/capita - Unemployment H ealth indicators: - Infant mortality

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Structural shift: the effect of a factor changes over time

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  1. Structural shift: the effect of a factor changes over time • Economy – health • Economy – thefts • Economy - emigration

  2. Are Recessions Good For Your Health? Past times: No! Now: Yes? Economic indicators: - GDP/capita - Unemployment Health indicators: - Infant mortality - Mortality 15-59 years

  3. Past times (18th and 19th century): people lived close to subsistence level, small margins bad timesstarvation, malnutrition, increased mortality • Economic growth improved sanitary conditionsand nutrition reduced mortality

  4. Sweden, 1751-1899

  5. Sweden, 1751-1899

  6. Sweden, 1751-1899

  7. Time series analysis of differenced data  significant (p<0.05) effect of GDP: increased GDP  reduced infant (and total) mortality

  8. But: analyses of Swedish data 1861-1913decreasing effect of the economy on mortality (Norström, Eur J Population 1988)

  9. Elasticity wages – mortality 1861-1913

  10. Preston (Population Studies 1975)

  11. Sweden 1751-2004, life expectancy and GDP

  12. Received wisdom: - Pritchett & L. Summers (1996) “Wealthier is Healthier” Journal of Human Resources Doubts: - Ruhm, C. (2000), “Are Recessions Good For Your Health?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics No doubts: - Ruhm, C. (2003), “Good Times Make You Sick”, Journal of Health Economics - Tapia Granados, J.A. (2005) “Increasing Mortality during the Expansions of the US economy, 1900-1996.” International Journal of Epidemiology

  13. . Health of unemployed - Population health Recessions + Health of employed +

  14. How could recessions be good for your health? • Less overtime and stress • Less smoking and alcohol • Less air pollutions • Less driving fewer accidents

  15. Male mortality 15-39 years and unemployment, Finland 1950-2000

  16. More rigorious test of the link between unemployment and mortality: ARIMA-analyses of differenced data 1950-2000 for a larger numer of countries. Outcome= male mortality 15-34 and 15-59 Explanatory variable: unemployment

  17. Result: increase in unemployment by 1 percentage point  reduced male mortality by 1% (not significant for women) Same as Tapia Granados found for the US

  18. Mechanism via reduced alcohol consumption (Finland) Unemployment +1%-point -0.3% Mortality -0.9% -0.6% Alcohol Consn -0.2 liter

  19. Conclusions • Recessions  worse health among unemployed(?), but better health among the rest • Common design (micro data comparing health of unemployed with the rest) has an inbuilt bias that masks positive health effects among the rest

  20. Recessions  worse health among unemployed? . Health of unemployed -? Population health Recessions + Health of employed +

  21. Unemploymentsuicide? • Micro data: Unemployed have an elevated suicide risk (RR=3). Selection effect? • Several TSA report significant relationships • Structural shift? • Focus 2 time periods with marked changes in unemployment in Sweden: • 1925-1938 • 1980-2002

  22. Sweden 1925-1938

  23. Sweden 1980-2002

  24. 4 model estimations: % change in suicide of a 1-unit increase in the predictor. Differenced data*** p<0.001 ** p<0.01 * p<0.05 (*) p<0.10

  25. Structural shift Exemple 2: Economy – thefts

  26. 2 hypotheses on the link economy - thefts • Improved economy reduced theft rate (poverty related crimes) • Improved economy increased theft rate (opportunity structure)

  27. Thefts (dotted) and real wages (solid). Sweden 1841-1984

  28. Theft rate (Y-axis) and real wages (X-axis) Negative relationship confirmed by ARIMA-analyses of differenced data

  29. Theft rate (above) and thefts not explained by real wages=noise (below)

  30. Indicators 1950-1985, cf Merton Durable goods Job vacancies

  31. Results ARIMA 1950-1984, elasticities (SE)

  32. Observed Vacanciesfixed Durable goodsfixed Noise

  33. Conclusion • Support for both hypotheses on the link between economy - thefts

  34. Parenthesis: suicide

  35. Suicide rate per 100 000 25 Other causes 10 5 Cause: alcohol 1915 1955 1925 Cause: unemployment What’s an important cause? May change

  36. Example 3: Emigration from Sweden 1861-1913

  37. Questions • Most important: pull- or push factors? • Wages or business climate?

  38. Determinants of emigration: Swedish and US economic indicators1861-1913 Importance Decreasing Small Increasing Small Increasing

  39. TriangulationHas economic growth effect also after 1850? Test with multiple indicators on life chancesstronger evidence TSA 1860-1914 Emigration - - Economic growth Mortality - Thefts

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