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The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 July 2011. Outline. Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Summary Climatology. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days.

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The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 July 2011

  2. Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Summary • Climatology

  3. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days Above-normal rainfall has been observed over southern and eastern Mexico during the past week.

  4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days Below-normal rainfall has been observed over almost the entire northern Mexico during the past 30 days.

  5. Recent Evolution: Rainfall

  6. Atmospheric Circulation & OLR Last 7 days During the past week, OLR anomalies were negative across the southern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, consistent with the presence of TS Arlene and wetter-than-average condition in the area. Lower-level cyclone was evident over northeastern Mexico during last 7 days.

  7. NCEP/GFS Week 1&2 Forecast Near-normal precipitations for Southwestern U.S. during the July 05 - July 18, 2011 period.

  8. Summary • During the last 7 days, northeastern Mexico received above-normal precipitation due to T.S. Arlene. Meanwhile, with the northward progression of the NAMS, southwestern US started to receive monsoon rainfall around July 03, 2011. • NCEP GFS week 1 and 2 bias-corrected forecasts show near-normal rainfall over southwestern US during the July 05-July 18, 2011 period. The NAME Forecast Forum 2011 web page is up. For details, please visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons/NAME/index.shtml

  9. ClimatologyMONSOON ONSET July 14 July 13 July 9 July 13 July 8 July 7 July 11 July 6 July 3 June 29 June 25 June 27 June 21 June 22 June 23 June 16 June 17 June 14 June 14 June 11 June 10 June 7 June 8 Higgins, R. W., Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1999: Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime. J. Clim, 17, 653-680 June 6 June 6 June 5

  10. Precipitation Climatology

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