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2015 Missouri Economic Forecast

This report presents the economic forecast for Missouri in 2015, focusing on key indicators such as business loans, real estate loans, bank loans, personal income, wages, and unemployment rates. It also examines the employment trends, sales taxes, and consumer sentiment in the state.

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2015 Missouri Economic Forecast

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  1. 2015 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Professor of Economics

  2. Missouri Business LoansThds of 2014 SA dollars

  3. Missouri Real Estate LoansThds of 2014 SA dollars

  4. Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 30-89 days (thds of dollars)

  5. Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 90+ days (thds of dollars)

  6. Missouri Real Personal Income(2014 Constant $ SAAR)

  7. Growth in Personal Income (Year over year)

  8. Growth in Personal Income (Year over year) 0.78%

  9. Change in Real Weekly Wages Year over Year

  10. Change in Real Weekly Wages Since Recession Start

  11. Missouri Unemployment Rate 9.6% 6.3%

  12. Major City Unemployment Rates 6.4%

  13. Other Unemployment Rates 6.0% 4.9%

  14. Labor Force in Missouri

  15. Labor Force in Missouri + 55,800 over 27 months

  16. Labor Force in Missouri

  17. Labor Force in Missouri

  18. Missouri Employment *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006]

  19. Missouri Employment 2,754K Dec 99 *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006]

  20. Index of Missouri and US Employment(Jan 2000 = 100)

  21. Change in Missouri Employment (thds)(Sep 2013 to Sep 2014)

  22. Change in Missouri Employment (thds)(Jun 2009 to Present)

  23. Change in Missouri Employment (Pct growth - Jun 2009 to Present)

  24. Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)

  25. Change in Missouri Employment (SA Establishment Survey with 100 = 1stmonth of recovery)

  26. Employment Growth in Missouri (Jan 2000=100)

  27. Employment Growth in Missouri (1st month of recovery =100)

  28. Missouri Employment Breakdown

  29. Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  30. Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  31. Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  32. Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  33. Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  34. Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

  35. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey • Interviewed 400 people in MoKan, Arkansas, and Oklahoma • Identical questions to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey so that the results can be compared directly • This is used to create an index which tracks consumer sentiment relative to a past date

  36. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey

  37. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey

  38. Missouri Compared to the US

  39. Arvest Consumer Sentiment SurveyExpected Change in Financial Situation in a Year

  40. Arvest Consumer Sentiment SurveyExpected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

  41. Arvest Consumer Sentiment SurveyExpected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

  42. 2015/2016 Missouri Forecast

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