Do UNEB results predict competencies required to excel academically in law school?

1. Do UNEB results predict competencies required to excel academically in law school? By Robert Wamala (Ph.D) School of Statistics and Planning, CoBAMs; Email - rwamala@isae.mak.ac.ug

2. PRESS RELEASE: Pre-Entry Exams for LL.B Entrants The dean, school of law writes: “There has been a mismatch between entry grades and the performance during the LL.B program and the legal profession” (Makerere University, 2011, p.1) Students are admitted with triple or even quadruple “As”, which unfortunately is in many cases, not reflected in their performance in law school.

3. Relevance of prior studies • There is overwhelming evidence in support of successful performance of enrollees who have excelled academically in the past. This evidence is supported by studies across: • Disciplines • Accounting and business economics (Duff, 2004; Alan & Othman, 2005) • Business management and national statistics (Halpern, 2007; Hoskins, Newstead & Denni, 1997) • Nursing (Navarro, Vitamog, Tierra, & Gonzalez, 2011) and Actuarial Science (Wamala, 2013) • Education Levels • Undergraduate (Alan & Othman, 2005 ; Halpern, 2007 ; Wamala et al, 2013) • Graduate (e.g., Navarro et al., 2011; Gregory, 2004 )

4. Competencies for undertaking Law

5. Competencies for undertaking Law [Cont.’]

6. Objective of the study To investigate the relevance of prior studies in predicting competencies required to excel academically in law school. Focus was made on A-Level grades obtained in disciplines, namely, History, Divinity, Literature, Economics and Geography. Data and Methods • Administrative records of 629 graduates in the enrollment cohorts 2005 to 2007 – over the four stipulated period of study – were adopted [N = 2485] • Academic achievement [dependent] was assessed by CGPA obtained in the first, second, third and fourth year of study • Investigations were made by: grades obtained in the A-level subjects and/or weighted score; students characteristics namely, sex, cohort, entry scheme and Nationality

7. Characteristics of enrollees [2005-2007 Cohorts]

8. Weighted Score [on Admission] Table 4: Summary statistics of the combined weighted score Note. The maximum possible score is 60 Mean weighted score suggests that the enrollees were highly competent in undertaking a bachelor’s study. The questionable aspect is the whether enrollees were competent for law school? With regards to subjects done at A-Level

9. Academic Achievement Table 1: Descriptive summary of academic achievement Note. Estimates are based on CGPA A“Lower second” class of degree obtained by a considerable number of graduates on the program

10. Predictors of academic achievement Note. Assessment based on panel data approach – Random Effects Model (RE) using MLE

11. Predictors of academic achievement [Cont.’] Note. Assessment based on panel data approach – Random Effects Model (RE) using MLE

12. Summary of the Findings [Student’s characteristics] Significant variations in academic achievement (CGPA) were noted by enrollees characteristics namely,nationality, enrollment cohort, and entry scheme (p < 0.05). Students on government entry scheme had a higher CGPA compared to those on the private evening arrangement Enrollees in the 2006 and 2007 cohorts had a lower CGPA compared to those in 2005 Could it be that students in the recent cohorts are increasingly taking on A-Level subjects they can easily pass rather than those they require to excel academically in law school ?

13. Summary of the Findings [A – Level subjects] Significant variations in academic achievement were noted by performance in disciplines namely literature, divinity, economics and history (p < 0.05). Students who obtained grade A in literature had higher CGPA compared to their counterparts who did not take the subject at A-Level Students who obtained grade A in divinity had higher CGPA compared to their counterparts who did not take the subject at A-Level Students who obtained grades A and B in history had a higher CGPA compared to those who did not take the subject at A-Level Students who obtained grade B and below in economics had a lower CGPA compared to those who did not take the subject at A-Level

14. Summary of the Findings [Weighted score] Significant variation in academic achievement was noted by the weighted score adopted on admission to law school(p < 0.01). Line of best fit is not steep enough – weighted score weakly predicts CGPA

15. Implications Performance in A-level subjects namely History, Divinity and Literature predicts competencies required to excel academically in law school Questionable aspects • Using ANY best done of all A-Level subjects as “Essential subjects” (MoES, 2005; 2006; 2007) to determine competence of candidates to law school • The most competent candidates are the ones with the highest weighted score adopted on admission to law school (MoES, 2005; 2006; 2007) Is the issue A-Level results or guidelines adopted on admission to law school ?

16. What about the pre-entry test to law school ? Is performance in the test predicted by grades obtained in History, Divinity and Divinity ?

17. Enrollees admitted on the basis of the test [2012-2013 Cohort]

18. Enrollees admitted on the basis of the test [Grades Obtained] Note. N/A denotes student who did not do a subject at A-Level

19. Enrollees admitted on the basis of the test [Grades Obtained] Contrary to enrollees admitted on the basis of their performance in A-Level, the highest proportion of students obtained Grade B in the subjects.

20. Performance in the Test Table 3: Descriptive summary of performance in the test Academic Achievement Table 4: Descriptive summary of academic achievement [2012 Cohort] Note. Estimates are based on First Year CGPA Figure is lower than FYCGPA of enrollees admitted using grades obtained in A-Level Combination of admission test and Undergraduate GPApredicts first-year GPA in law school (Anthony, Harris & Pashley 1999; Dalessandro, Stilwell, & Reese 2005; Evans, 1984; Norton, Suto, & Reese, 2006; Wightman 1993)

21. Predictors of performance in the Test Note. Assessment is based on a quantile (median) regression

22. Predictors of performance in the Test [Cont.’]

23. Summary of the Findings [Characteristics] • Performance in the test was HIGHER among: • Males (p < 0.01) • Ugandan nationals (p < 0.01) • Bachelor’s degree holders at enrollment compared to those with A-Level (p < 0.01) • Performance in the test was LOWER among: • Privately sponsored day and evening students compared to government scheme (p < 0.01) • Students admitted on the basis of diploma and mature entry compared to those with A-Level (p<0.01).

24. Summary of the Findings [A-Level Subjects] • Performance in the test was HIGHER among: • Enrollees who did not do Literature compared to those with grade A (p < 0.05). • Enrollees who did not do Geography compared to those with grade A (p < 0.05). • Enrollees who obtained grade A in Economics compared to other grades (p < 0.01) • Performance in the Test was LOWER among: • Enrollees who obtained grade C in history compared to those with grade A (p < 0.01). Grades obtained in History, Divinity and Literature do not predict performance in the pre-entry test.

25. Implications Aptitude tests predict inherent mental rather than educational or academic ability as applied to law (LNAT Consortium, 2010; Law School Admission Council, 2013; 2001) Questionable aspects • Relying heavily on the outcome of the test to admit students under the government entry scheme (Makerere University, 2011) • Relying heavily on the outcome of the test to admit students to law school Although candidates for the test are determined by a pooled index of attainment in A-Level (any subjects), admission to law school is mainly determined by the outcome of the test

26. Conclusions The outcome of the admission test does not predict competencies required to excel academically in law school Performance in A-Levels subjects namely, History, Divinity and Literature predicts competencies required to excel academically in law school A pooled index of attainment in prior studies - using ANY subjects done at A-level - should not be used as a basis for determining candidates to sit the pre-entry test

27. Recommendations • To obtain the most academically competent candidates to law school, admission requirements should focus on performance in the A-Level subjects namely History, Divinity and Literature • Requirements to sit the admission test should be based on performance in the subjects rather than a pooled index of attainment in prior studies i.e. A-Level

28. Problem is NOT UNEB results but the guidelines for admission to law school