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Status and Plans for the ECMWF Forecasting System: Bilateral Meeting 2011 Overview

This report summarizes the 2011 bilateral meeting discussing the ECMWF forecasting system's performance, research highlights, and future plans. Key updates include the release of CY36R2 and CY36R4, featuring enhancements such as GRIB.API, Ensemble Data Assimilation, a new physics package, and snow analysis. Upcoming developments include CY37R2 that focuses on flow-dependent variances, improved observation error reduction for AMSU-A, and GRIB-2 implementation. Comparisons with other forecasting centers and innovative approaches in cloud microphysics are also highlighted.

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Status and Plans for the ECMWF Forecasting System: Bilateral Meeting 2011 Overview

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  1. Status and plans for the ECMWF forecasting System Bilateral meeting 2011

  2. Overview • Performance of the forecasting system • Research highlights: • CY36R2 (22 June 2010): GRIB API and Ensemble Data Assimilation (to initiate the EPS) • CY36R4 (9 November 2010): New physics package, surface EKF, snow analysis,… • CY37R2 (in the pipeline): Ensemble Data Assimilation to provide flow-dependent variances to 4D-Var, reduction of observation error for AMSU-A, GRIB-2 for model level fields Bilateral meeting 2011

  3. Overview • Performance of the forecasting system • Research highlights: • CY36R2 (22 June 2010): GRIB API and Ensemble Data Assimilation (to initiate the EPS) • CY36R4 (9 November 2010): New physics package, surface EKF, snow analysis,… • CY37R2 (in the pipeline): Ensemble Data Assimilation to provide flow-dependent variances to 4D-Var, reduction of observation error for AMSU-A, GRIB-2 for model level fields Bilateral meeting 2011

  4. Deterministic forecast headline score Bilateral meeting 2011

  5. Comparison with other centres:autumn, NH Bilateral meeting 2011

  6. Precipitation skill Europe D+2 D+4 Bilateral meeting 2011

  7. Comparison of TC forecastsfrom HKO, 2008-2009, western North Pacific Bilateral meeting 2011

  8. Russian heat wave Bilateral meeting 2011

  9. Overview • Performance of the forecasting system • Research highlights: • CY36R2 (22 June 2010): GRIB API and Ensemble Data Assimilation (to initiate the EPS) • CY36R4 (9 November 2010): New physics package, surface EKF, snow analysis… • CY37R2 (in the pipeline): Ensemble Data Assimilation to provide flow-dependent variances to 4D-Var, reduction of observation error for AMSU-A, GRIB-2 for model level fields • others Bilateral meeting 2011

  10. Selected contents Prognostic rain and snow with more comprehensive cloud microphysics EKF for soil moisture analysis New snow analysis (O-I) Enhancement of all-sky radiance assimilation November 2010 IFS cycle 36r4

  11. New prognostic cloud microphysics scheme WATER VAPOUR Evaporation Condensation CLOUD FRACTION CLOUD Liquid/Ice Evaporation CLOUD FRACTION Autoconversion PRECIP Rain/Snow Current Cloud Scheme New Cloud Scheme • 5 prognostic cloud variables + water vapour • Ice and water now independent • More physically based, greater realism • Significant change to degrees of freedom • Change to water cycle balances in the model • More than double the lines of “cloud” code! • 2 prognostic cloud variables + w.v. • Ice/water diagnostic Fn(T) • Diagnostic precipitation

  12. New prognostic cloud microphysicsRepresentation of mixed phase • The most significant change in the new scheme is the improved physical representation of the mixed phase. • Current scheme: diagnostic fn(T) split between ice and liquid cloud(a crude approximation of the wide range of values observed in reality). • New scheme: wide range of supercooled liquid water for a given T. PDF of liquid water fraction of cloud for the diagnostic mixed phase scheme (dashed line) and the prognostic ice/liquid scheme (shading)

  13. For snow SYNOP reports an satellite based snow cover are assimilated A new snow analysis (I) A new 4 km IMS snow cover is assimilated into a new OI analysis replacing Cressmaninterpolation Here shown isthe analysedsnow cover Cressman and IMS_24km OI and IMS 4km

  14. Impact of Cycle 36r4 Bilateral meeting 2011

  15. SEEPS: impact of 36r4 Bilateral meeting 2011

  16. Overview • Performance of the forecasting system • Research highlights: • CY36R2 (22 June 2010): GRIB API and Ensemble Data Assimilation (to initiate the EPS) • CY36R4 (9 November 2010): New physics package, surface EKF, snow analysis… • CY37R2 (in the pipeline): Ensemble Data Assimilation to provide flow-dependent variances to 4D-Var, reduction of observation error for AMSU-A, GRIB-2 for model level fields • others Bilateral meeting 2011

  17. Selected contents Increased weight to AMSU-A data Direct use of EDA in 4D-Var Retuning of new physics GRIB-2 for model level fields In the pipeline: IFS cycle 37R2

  18. Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) • Perturbed observations • Perturbed SSTs • Stochastic physics Δx2 Δx1 Ensemble initial perturbations → Δx3 Δx4 X0 4DVAR X+12h

  19. EDA – flow dependent variances 9h forecasts 23/1 2009 21 UTC Standard deviation of zonal wind component at ~850hPa and pmsl ms-1 24/1 2009 21 UTC

  20. Impact of Cycle 37R2 NH SH Z VW Bilateral meeting 2011

  21. Overview • Performance of the forecasting system • Research highlights: • CY36R2 (22 June 2010): GRIB API and Ensemble Data Assimilation (to initiate the EPS) • CY36R4 (9 November 2010): New physics package, surface EKF, snow analysis… • CY37R2 (in the pipeline): Ensemble Data Assimilation to provide flow-dependent variances to 4D-Var, reduction of observation error for AMSU-A, GRIB-2 for model level fields • Others (small selection) Bilateral meeting 2011

  22. Main research/development topics 2011: • Ensemble data assimilation methods (EDA, EKF) • Weak constraint, long window 4D-Var • Vertical resolution increase • Numerical experimentation into the “grey zone” • Improved physical parameterizations • Implement NEMO ocean model and NEMOVAR in EPS • Seasonal forecasting system 4 • ERA-CLIM • MACC in Near-Real-Time • IFS maintenance and optimisation (cycles, code, scripts) • Object Oriented Prediction System Research Department Annual Plan 2011

  23. One concern: Speed-up of 4D-Var Nodes

  24. Ensemble Kalman filter development Bilateral meeting 2011

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