Dr. Paul V. Desanker Penn State University, USA & Miombo Network (Malawi) desanker@psu

1. Need for National Integrated Assessment Models for Adaptation and Emphasis on Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies Dr. Paul V. Desanker Penn State University, USA & Miombo Network (Malawi) desanker@psu.edu

2. Self Introduction • Assoc Prof of Geography, Penn State University, USA • Founding member and Coordinator, IGBP/LUCC/START Miombo Network since 1994 • CLA IPCC TAR WGII Africa Chapter • LDC NAPA Technical Development Team • Member of IPCC TGCIA • Research on integrated assessment of climate change, in particular, extremes, in southern African Miombo region (Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique) • Tool development for rapid assessment of vulnerability and adaptation (PRIVA) in LDCs under NAPA or at any level • Research on Land use/land cover change and impacts, and role in adaptation COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

3. Integrated Assessment • Past models mostly global, and emphasize impacts conditional on emission pathways – adaptations not explicit • Global nature require that developing regions be aggregated, into one or very few subregions for Africa despite large size and great diversity in factors controlling vulnerability • Global integrated assessment models have been very useful in framing the climate change issue, such as the comprehensive assessments of the IPCC such as under SRES (IPCC 2000) • Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional and national conclusions COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

4. Global Versus National or Local • Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional and national conclusions • For example, take Food Security, globally can conclude that the world will produce enough food to feed its population HOWEVER, the conclusions are very different for national and local levels. • And for water, modeling studies that look at major river flows are not applicable to major water requirements where reliance is on underground water or non-river based sources • In any case, Africa short-changed by studies that can not resolve national levels; as well as due consideration of other problems facing Africa: health, poverty, globalization, subsidies, etc COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

5. Needs for Integrated Assessments in Africa • Assessment of impacts needed at local to national level, including explicit representation of costs and benefits to guide decision making • This is not the same as re-framing global to continental assessments at the national and local level • Important decisions are made at global (in relation to the UNFCCC process) or at the national level for national planning and local implementation • This requires that information be produced for each country in relation to local, regional and global linkages as appropriate COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

6. What is the Miombo Network doing about this? • Case studies of local coping to floods and droughts – documenting experiences and results • Developing participatory rapid integrated V&A (PRIVA) for use in NAPA COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

7. Linking impacts to vulnerability in PRIVA • V(climatic hazard) = F{Risk (climatic hazard) ; Impact Potential (Sensitivity (hazard)Coping Range(system_f(climate)); Coping Ability (determinants|hazard))} COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

8. Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2 Define adaptation to minimize vulnerability through any of the following: • By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating components of risk • (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of analysis for the LDCs) • Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance) • By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as poverty, access to financial resources, etc) COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

9. NAPA Process (from NAPA Primer, Desanker et al. 2003) COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

10. ClimateChange Extremes and Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate Climatic Attribute (X) Time(years) Current Coping Range Transition period – NAPA domain COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

11. Cascading or nested spatial scales • Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations • For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”) • Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions • Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are easily implementable and address specific communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc) COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

12. Adaptation – a local level process • Makes sense when localized in implementation, while ideally taking into account (unknown) global forcing of climate hazards • Inherent uncertainty in climate projections implies decision making in adaptation not trivial: need application of appropriate decision frameworks • For the short term, expect transient changes, so enhance coping as one strategy • major improvements in predictions/projects to identify general direction of hazard and risk COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

13. Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies • Our studies in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique under AIACC, indicate • Diversity of local coping to immediate problems associated with erratic rains, persistent droughts, increased flooding, etc. • Examples include staggered planting of main food crops to improve likelihood of a good harvest; change in crop species planted; shift to buying food versus local production; water harvesting techniques • Most of these decisions made at community level without comprehensive assessments of costs and benefits, or explicit consideration of what future changes might be • Danger that climate will continue to change, and may results in total breakdown of local production systems. NEED MORE CASE STUDIES TO INTEGRATED CONVENTIONAL AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE • Elsewhere, indigenous technologies exist to cope with persistent adverse climatic conditions. COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

14. Qanat:(Kariz/ Surangam/ Foggara/ Falaj) Centre for Sustainable Development CENESTA, Iran M.R HAERI

15. COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC Tausug house with rainwater collection system, Philipines

16. Priorities for improving the stateof knowledge & information exchange in Integrated Assessment • Need data on costs and benefits of specific adaptation activities including EIAs to evaluate long-term sustainability • Need more implementations of national integrated models to address adaptation planning, to include due consideration of policy issues, synergies with other MEAs, multiple stresses, etc • Need regional balance in discussion and development of these tools and analyses COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

17. Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 1/3. • Encourage targeted research in the development of regional integrated models that emphasize vulnerability, risk assessment and local community needs. • Encourage sharing of knowledge and experiences with integrated assessment for the developing countries, especially at the regional level through regional workshops • Regional networks are invaluable in reaching national and regional decision makers, managers and scientists, there is need to encourage work of these networks and encourage development of new networks where none exist. COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

18. Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 2/3. • Facilitate exchange of experiences on local coping and indigenous technologies especially between countries/regions along a path of possible future change: e.g. historically flooded areas with new areas subject to repeated floods; also for droughts • Facilitate EIA of technologies and activities especially for adaptation to safeguard against mal-adaptation and to build sustainable adaptation solutions COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

19. Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 3/3. • While no one-size-fits all, there are a small set of adaptations to floods and droughts – such as changing crop types and planting; there is need to thoroughly assess how this can be done effectively taking into account uncertainties in climate predictions (seasonal and long-term); risks in decision making at local and national levels, strategies to minimize risk of failure, research needed to ensure proper hybrids and provenances of species are available (do this beyond spatial assessments of crop suitability that are easily done using GIS), and go beyond generic prescriptions such as “change crops” as an adaptation. COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC