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Florida in the Future: Competing as a Megaregion. presented to Leadership Polk presented by John Kaliski Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 19, 2009. Presentation Outline. Megatrends shaping the global economy Florida’s changing economic geography Implications for Polk County.

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florida in the future competing as a megaregion

Florida in the Future:Competing as a Megaregion

presented to

Leadership Polk

presented by

John Kaliski

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

November 19, 2009

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • Megatrends shaping the global economy
  • Florida’s changing economic geography
  • Implications for Polk County
the world is flat
The World Is Flat

Source: The Path to 2050, Goldman Sachs.

the world is flat1
The World Is Flat

Travel time to major cities (in hours and days) and shipping lane density

Source: European Communities, 2008

the world is also spiky
The World Is Also Spiky

Light Emissions ~ Economic Activity

Population Density

Source: Richard Florida, The Atlantic, 2005

the world also is getting crowded 1 in 6 new americans could be floridians
The World Also Is Getting Crowded1 in 6 New Americans Could Be Floridians

FLORIDA 12.7%

450 million

California 12.6%

300 million

Texas 12.5%

Rest of U.S. 44.4%

200 million

2008

100 million

1850

1900

1800

1950

2000

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

and our geography is becoming more complex from metro regions to super regions
And Our Geography Is Becoming More ComplexFrom Metro Regions to Super Regions

Seattle-Tacoma (25m)

Minneapolis-St.Paul (8m)

Orlando - Tampa (80m)

D.C. - Baltimore (35m)

Dallas-Ft. Worth (30m)

Miami - West Palm Beach (65m)

Phoenix - Tucson (110m)

birth of a super region tampa bay polk county and central florida
Birth of a Super RegionTampa Bay, Polk County, and Central Florida

1970 – 2.5 million

1990–4.9 million

2000–6.0 million

2007–7.1 million

Source: Florida Geographic Data Library

7 th largest region in the united states population 2007
7th Largest Region in the United StatesPopulation 2007

1. New York-Northern NJ-SW CT

2. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty

3. Chicago-Gary-Kenosha

4. Washington-Baltimore

5. Boston-Providence-Manchester

6. San Francisco Bay Area

7.1 million

7.Tampa Bay- Central Florida

8. Dallas- Fort Worth

9. Philadelphia

0

5

10

15

20

Population (in Millions)

Source: US Census Bureau

15th largest economy in the world 2005 gross regional product
15th Largest Economy in the World2005 Gross Regional Product

1. New York-Northern NJ-Southwest CT

2. Tokyo

3. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty

10. Osaka-Kobe

11. Mexico City

12. Houston

13. Philadelphia

14. Dallas-Fort Worth

15. Tampa Bay-Central Florida

16. Atlanta

17. Buenos Aires

18. Hong Kong

19. Miami-Fort Lauderdale

20. Detroit

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dollars (in Billions)

$256 billion

Source: Citymayors.com with PriceWaterhouse Coopers

emerging megaregions
Emerging Megaregions

Source: America 2050

what ties us together commuting patterns
What Ties Us Together?Commuting Patterns

Residence Density

Employment Density

Employment Density

  • 99 percent of employees live and work within region
  • 3.1 million private sector jobs
  • 2.1 million, or 68 percent of jobs are within 5 miles of Interstate corridors

Source: US Census, Local Employment Dynamics

what ties us together b2b relationships
What Ties Us Together? B2B Relationships
  • 23-county High Tech Corridor
    • 21,454 companies
    • 263,000 high tech workers
    • 70 percent of Florida's high-tech jobs
    • 3 of nation’s 10 largest universities
what ties us together
What Ties Us Together?

MetroJacksonville.com

  • Visitors
  • Military
  • History and culture
  • Agriculture
  • Water
  • Habitat and wildlife corridors
  • Recreation areas
socio cultural identity is still emerging
Socio-Cultural Identity Is Still Emerging

Pensacola

Tallahassee

Jacksonville

Orlando Magic

Gainesville

Orlando

Miami Heat

Tampa

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Miami

Tampa BayBuccaneers

Florida Marlins

Tampa Bay Lightning

MiamiDolphins

Florida Panthers

Source: CommonCensus.org

can the super region compete globally key issues
Can the Super Region Compete Globally? Key Issues

Connectivity

Education &economy

Regional cooperation

Quality growth

education percent of adult population with 4 year degree 2007
EducationPercent of Adult Population with 4-year degree, 2007

43%

35%

33%

30%

27%

25%

27.5%

25.8%

CentralFlorida

TampaBay

San Francisco Bay

Dallas- Ft Worth

Florida

Seattle-Tacoma

DC-Baltimore

US

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

economic diversification percent of employment in high tech industries 2007
Economic DiversificationPercent of Employment in High-Tech Industries, 2007

13%

12%

7%

7%

4%

4%

4%

3%

CentralFlorida

TampaBay

Seattle-Tacoma

Dallas- Ft Worth

DC – Baltimore

San Francisco Bay

Florida

US

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

connectivity percent of commuters using public transportation 2007
ConnectivityPercent of Commuters using Public Transportation, 2007

11%

11%

8%

5%

1.3%

1.2%

2%

2%

DC – Baltimore

San Francisco Bay

Dallas- Ft Worth

Seattle-Tacoma

Florida

CentralFlorida

US

TampaBay

Source: US Census Bureau, 2007

future development choices
Future Development Choices

Urbanized Area

1970 – 2.5 million

1990 – 4.9 million

2000 – 6.0 million

2020 – 8.8 million

2040 – 11.3 million

2060 – 13.9 million

Source: USGS, Florida Geographic Data Library and 1000 Friends of Florida.

barriers to regional cooperation differences in planning perspectives
Barriers to Regional CooperationDifferences in Planning Perspectives

Private Sector

Global

National

Regional

Local

Public Sector

barriers to regional cooperation differences in regional boundaries
Barriers to Regional CooperationDifferences in Regional Boundaries

Regional Planning Councils

Water Management Districts

FDOT Districts

Metropolitan/Transportation Planning Organizations

Enterprise Florida Regions

florida regional visioning processes
Florida Regional Visioning Processes

Our Region Tomorrow

First Coast Vision

How Shall We Grow?

Southeast Florida 2060

Committee for a Sustainable Emerald Coast

One Bay

Heartland 2060

Committee for a Sustainable Treasure Coast

Southwest Florida 2060

choices for polk county
Choices for Polk County
  • Blend into surrounding regions?
  • Become an island?
  • Position to be the connector of 3 regions?
how do we compete
How Do We Compete?

Think…

Think Also…

High skilled workers

Global connectivity

Livable communities

Sustainable environment

Regions, super regions and megaregions

Low cost labor

Location

Low cost of living

Natural resources

Individual communities