Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 8 Mar 2011 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: A surge of tropical moisture brought heavy rainfall to portions of interior central Australia, while generally above average rainfall continued across the northern monsoon regions. The GFS forecasts continued well above-average rainfall across northern Australia. Southern Africa:Dry weather overspread much of South Africa’s maize triangle region. The GFS forecasts continued below-average rainfall across the corn growing regions of southern Africa. South America: Heavy rainfall across south central and southeastern Brazil contrasted with dry weather in the far south. In Argentina, mostly dry weather was observed across central and eastern farmlands. The GFS forecasts a continuation of the pattern, with heavy rain persisting across southeastern Brazil, and dryness persisting in the south. Increased rainfall is forecast for Buenos Aires and the lower Parana River Valley region of Argentina.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • A mature La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies have begun to weaken in parts of the Pacific Ocean. • ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May – June 2011. During the last 4-weeks SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 170°E and 110°W, while small regions of above average temperatures have emerged in the far eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO increased slightly during the past few days. A weak MJO event is predicted for the next two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C C Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, a surge of tropical moisture brought heavy rainfall to portions of the interior, while generally above average rainfall continued across the northern monsoon regions.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

13. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

14. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

16. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

17. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Drier weather overspread South Africa’s maize triangle region during the previous week.

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

20. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days Decreased rainfall was observed across corn croplands of southern Africa during the previous 30 days.

21. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

22. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

24. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

25. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Very heavy rainfall extended from Mato Grosso do Sul eastward into southern Minas Gerais, northern Sao Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro. In contrast, dry weather overspread Brazil’s far southern states. • Dry weather overspread central and eastern croplands of Argentina during the previous week. Brazil Argentina

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

28. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days Recent rainfall deficits across portions of southeastern Brazil were erased by a week of copious rainfall (top right panel).

29. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

30. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

31. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

32. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

33. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information