V. Wenzel Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research Dept. Integrated Systems Analysis

1. An Epistemic ApproachApplied for Integrated Water Quantity and Quality Problems:Case Study Berlin_________________________________ V. Wenzel Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research Dept. Integrated Systems Analysis

2. Content 1. The Integrated Approach 2. Case Study Berlin: Waters Quantity & Quality • An integrated model of the Greater Berlin river-network • Embedding into a Framework for integrated regional problem solving • An actual problem and Alternative Strategies for its potential solution • Evaluating the results of impact analyses • Integrating evaluation criteria • NAIADE: Multicriteria- & Equity-analyses • Ranking & Decision Support

3. Pattern for an integrated approach The ‚miracle of life‘ Epistemic structure Conception: Genome Proteome Organs‘ Growth Saturation Organs‘ Functions Integration Organism: Viability Question, Problem, Conflict Selective Cumulation Saturation Epistemic Aggregation Answer, Solution

4. Epistemology in general Investigation of complex systems Problem definition and analysis Stakeholder, Common values Conceptualisation for problem solving Actions, Criteria, Model set-up Definition of scenarios External Drivers, Alternatives Impact-Analysis Evaluation of Alternatives Index-variables, Multi-criteria analysis Negotiation for Compromise Conflict analysis Optimal & Compromise Ranking Question, Problem Selective Cumulation Saturation Epistemic Aggregation Answer, Solution

5. Basic Integration Scheme ‚Leitbilder‘ Global Change Question Problem Conflict Interdisciplinary Studies Integrated Assessment Transdisciplinary Participation Answer Solution Compromise

6. # Category Symbol 1 Regions: REGGeographical objects of investigation 2 Time Range: TIRSimulation interval for scenarios 3 Time Units: TIU Time steps of models 4 Master Scenarios: MSC Regional problems, conflicts & tasks 5 Stakeholders: STAInterest groups & institutions 6 Exogeneous drivers: EXO Components of Global Change or other drivers 7 Alternatives: ALT Management strategies as bundles of options 8 Management Fields: MTF Fields for management activities 9 Management Options: MTO Activities as quantitative measures 10 Models: MOD Methods, instruments for impact analyses Language Categories

7. # category symbol 11 Single Indicators: IND Variables, states 12 IndexVariables: IDX Aggregated indicators 13 Criteria: CRI for integrated evaluation 14 Alternatives vs. Criteria: AvC Impact matrix for multicriteria analysis 15 Alternatives vs. Stakeholders: AvS Equity matrix for conflict analysis 16Leitbilder: LBD Generally accepted values 17 Integrated Impact Analysis: IIA 18Multicriteria Analysis: MCA 19Equity Analysis: EQA 20Negotiations:NEG Language Categories cont.

8. Research object:River system of Greater Berlin

9. Episodic Fish Mortality Greater Berlin: Integrated waters model LUSIM Soil Sealing geogr. explicit Demography Social Dyn. Urbanization Waters Quality Classes QSIM Waters Quality Canal Overflow ArcEGMO Rain Water run-off Climate Change Precipitation Patterns Trophy Saproby Pollution HYDRAX Hydrodynamics Management quantity- sensitive ArcGRM Long Range Rationing Demands EMMO Aquatic Ecosystem Matter Charges Bathing Site Water Quality Supply Risks Management quality- sensitive Index for Supply Security

10. Framework for Problem Solving Master Scenario Participation Stakeholders of Interest groups & Decision makers Management options Exogenous drivings Indicators Alternative strategies Evaluation criteria Development scenarios Impact analysis Impact matrix Data Models Expert- knowledge Literature Multicriteria analysis Ranking Equity matrix Coalition dendrogram Equity analysis Policy recommendations

11. Problems in the focus of research: Master-Scenarios • Security for demanded water availability and expected waters quality in Berlinunder the conditions of Global change • Facility and security of navigation on Lower Spree and Havel rivers under consideration of the demands with respect to environmental protection

12. Components of Global Change: 100 Realizations of A1-Climate Urbanization scenario A1U geographically explicit by LUSIM • Present state A1 • Present state B2 • -Demographic dynamics as part of urbanization • - Technology and behavioural changes mapped through MAS-models • to be realized later in GLOWA II 100 Realizations of B2-Climate Urbanization scenario B2U geographically explicit by LUSIM

13. Interest groups and Institutions:Stakeholders • Regional development authorities • Environmental policy authorities • Health authorities • Water suppliers • Energy suppliers • Navigation agencies • Environmental protectionists • Bathers • Fishermen and angler

14. Senate‘s water policy WP0: SenStadt scenario 2025A • WP1: SenStadt scenario 2025B • Pur. Plant performance KAL0: b.a.u. - operation with present equipmentKAL1: P-elimination PP Münchehofe,Waßmannsdorf,Ruhleben • KAL2: membrane filtering in PP Ruhleben • Rain water management RWB0: b.a.u. - sealing grows with urbanization RWB1: partial unsealing / detain more rain water • Energy policy EP0: b.a.u. - present EP-capacities • EP1: EP-capacity reduction, better cooling technology • Flow regulation FR0: b.a.u. - usual adaptive Berlin - control • FR1: transfer of 3.5 m3/s water Oder Spree basin • Environm. protection UMW0: b.a.u. - no further actions • UMW1: 1 / 2 outflow PP MünchehofeWuhletal • UMW2: stop water transfer PP RuhlebenTeltowkanal 6 Management fields - with 2 or 3 options:

15. 4 Strategies in Berlin ALT1: WP0,KAL0,RWB0,EP0,FR0,UMW0 -Business as usual ALT2: WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP1,FR0,UMW1 -Moderate Options ALT3: WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP0,FR0,UMW2 -Redistribution forBiotopes ALT4: WP1,KAL2,RWB1,EP0,FR0,UMW2 -Improved purific. & Biotopes ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ALT5 – ALT8: as ALT1 – ALT4 but with FR1 instead of FR0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 * 4 Alternatives 4 Scenarios in the Spree region 1.Basic-Scenario ALT1 – ALT4 2. Oder-water transfer ALT5 – ALT8 3. Flooding of abandoned holes ALT9 – ALT12 4. Reduced affluxes ALT13 – ALT16

16. Multicriteria Evaluation: NAIADE Structures for Evaluation of Alternatives CRI1 CRI2 CRIn Integrating Criteria : . . . . IDX1 IDX2 IDXn Aggregated Index Variables : . . . . Modelling : IND11 IND12 IND13 IND21 IND22 IND23 INDn1 INDn2 INDn3 Single Indicators: . . . . MOD1 MOD2 MOD3 MODm Approved Models: Selection & Adaptation vs. Modelling & Validation :

17. Water Supply Security Index • Waters Quality Class Index • Bathing Site Water Quality • Episodic Fish Mortality • Urban Climate • Monetary Index Evaluation criteria Derived from following Aggregated Index Variables:

18. The Index-ModelsBase for Evaluation criteria Aggregated Index VariableCombined Single indicators • Water Supply Security IndexDeficit probabilities for minimal discharges • and the demands of PPs, WPs and lockage • Waters Quality Class Index LAWA-threshold values for • matter compounds and trophy • Bathing Site Water Quality TP, Chlorophyll-a, Blue-green algae, Secchi depth, • Pathogenic bacteria, Potential Bathing frequency • Episodic Fish Mortality O2-provisions, pH-value, NH4 through • exceptional loads by Canal overflows • after Heavy rain events • Urban Climate Temperature distribution, Air moisture and • circulation in the urban area • Monetary Index Balances for costs and benefits • of the alternative strategies

19. Criterion of Supply SecurityLevels of aggregation • Demand facilities: Water plants, Power plants, Minimal discharge Aggregates a are the single WPs, PPs and gauges • ArcGRM: Counts the deficit probabilities W(a,monat) • A time integration yields W(a,jahr) = W(a,pentade) • Integration over the aggregates with individual weights:V(p) = (S q(a) * W(a,p)) / Q with Q = S q(a) • Weight for a gauge – is the demanded local discharge Qmin(a) ... for a PP or WP – is the demanded quantity to be used • For PP the deficit probability corresponds to those of needed multiple use of the available water quantity

20. Waters quality index • Components: Matter compounds and Trophy • Compounds considered: O2, TOC, NO3, NO2, NH4, totP, solP with given LAWA-threshold values for the assignment of one of the 7 quality classes I, I-II, II, II-III, III, III-IV, IV • Projection of the entire intervals for all compounds onto interval (0,1) • Assignment of weight values qi so that O2, TOC and the remaining compounds together take by one third; it follows additive combination of the single indicators Gi coming up with quality index GGS for matter compounds: • GGS = Sqi * Gi; i= 1,...,7 • As measure for the trophic state serves the Chlorophyll-a content • The trophic quality index GGT we receive by assigning one of the 7 classes I to IV guided by the given LAWA-threshold values

21. Criterion of Bathing site Waters quality • Aspects of an Integrating Evaluation: • Ecological:States according to phosphorus concentration, algae blooming and secchi depth: CHLa, • in particular, the share of Blue-green algae BA • Social: Health threatening by Blue-green algae toxin • and pathogenic bacteria EC • Economic: Potential vs. actual bathing frequency • Normative: Standardization of the Index by EU-orders: • G-values (guiding) for warning • I-values (imperative) for bathing prohibition • IndexBQafter processing of all threshold values: • BQ = (1-BQ1) / 3 + (1-BQ2) / 3 + (1-BQ3) / 3 • with BQ1 = CHLa / 150 ; BQ2 = 0.113*BA ; BQ3 = log(EC)/4

22. Index for Bathing site water qualityTrajectories of 3 Scenarios: Basic, Oder-water transfer, Flooding for one bathing season

23. NAIADE: Multi-criteria und Equity Analyses • Developped with respect to applications in Ecological Economy • Allows Fuzzy-linguistic ratings as much as • numeric or probabilistic ones • Provides an Equity Analysis parallel • to MCA NAIADE is the quintessence of a monograph to MCA by G. Munda (JRC EC, Ispra, Italy): „Multicriteria Evaluation in a Fuzzy Environment: Theory and Applications in Ecological Economics“

24. Analyses with NAIADE • Definition/Identification ofAlternatives, Evaluation criteria, Interest groups • Establish Matrices:Impact-MatrixEquity-Matrix ... only fuzzy-linguistic Element: numeric, stochastic or fuzzy k. Criterion k. Interest group n. Alternative n. Alternative • Analyses and Results • Impact-MatrixRanking of Alternatives • Equity-MatrixCoalitions dendrogram for Interest groups

25. Ranking of the Berlin-Alternatives by water quantity criteria

26. Ranking of all Berlin/Spree-Alternativesby water quantity criteria

27. Ranking of the 4 Berlin Alternativesby criteria for both quality and quantity Pentade 1 (2003-2007) Pentade 10 (2048-2052)

28. Fuzzy-linguistic Scale 0 Extremely Bad Very Bad 0.08 Bad 0.24 More or Less Bad 0.41 Moderate 0.59 More or Less Good 0.76 Good 0.92 Very Good 1 Perfect Based on the interval (0,1), a Fuzzy-set is defined for each of the 9 introduced linguistic variables. The scale marks the points of overlapping for neighboring functions.

29. Equity-Matrix and Coalitions dendrogram

30. Resume • The presented method of integrative, participative analysis and evaluation has been applied and demonstrated with all its steps from problem definition to decision supportfor the case study Berlin. The instrument is prepared for further investigations. • Following the hierarchical structure for the method‘s categories in top-down direction, coming investigations may also concern - other research objects - new problems - additional drivers (other components of Global change) - changed structures for the characteristic concepts (Stakeholders, Alternatives, Evaluation criteria) - new models to be applied or - the change of certain assumptions or model parameters.

31. Thank you for attention!