What’s a RISA and why do fish care? August 28, 2006 Boulder, CO

1. What’s a RISA and why do fish care? August 28, 2006Boulder, CO Robert S. WebbPhysical Science DivisionEarth System Research LaboratoryNOAA OAR

2. RISA = Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments • Funded by NOAA Climate Program Office (formerly Office of Global Programs ) • Created mid 1990s to connect regional decision making with newly available climate information • Enable NOAA to learn about how to create a National Climate Service • Operate at all time scales: past, present, future • Generally ‘climate’, not ‘weather’, centric • At universities with strong climate programs • Interact with NOAA Climate Offices and Laboratories • Interdisciplinary Teams

3. RISA Mission, Tools, Techniques • Typical Mission: Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change • Tools and Techniques • Sustained stakeholder interaction • Usable applied research • Outreach and Education • Synthesis Studies • Clearinghouse for Contacts, Information • Decision Support Tools • Forecasts • Reconstructions and Projections of Climate • Ecosystem Management • Regional Climate Summaries

4. 8 NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (“RISA”) Programs http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/ 4 Programs in the West • ‘Building Bridges Between Climate Science and Society’ • Regional Focused, All Time Scales • Not normal science! – ‘co-production of knowledge’ • RISAs want and need stakeholder involvement 6 of the 8 RISAs deal with climate and coastal issues

5. FISHY RISA Projects • CIG: Climate Change, Salmon Recovery • CAP: Snowpack, runoff, CALFED Bay-Delta • WWA: Natural Peal Flow Hydrograph, Colorado EIS • ACCAP: Sea Ice and Marine Ecosystems • SECC: Water quality, Everglades Agricultural Area • CISA: Coastal Climate Extension, sustainability • Pacific: Climate impacts on fisheries coastal resource management, coral reefs, agriculture and tourism

6. CIG case study: evolution of climate information for salmon management A fishery oceanography study identifies a climate impact • Climate variability explains a large fraction of the space-time variations in 20th Century Pacific salmon catches (and presumably abundance) CIG (Hare, Mantua, Francis) promote the use of climate information for salmon management by describing the research results at meetings and workshops … yet no managers want to use our results! • The response from fishery management staff: “Your work is interesting, but it doesn’t suit our needs” CIG partners with a NOAA fisheries scientist involved in salmon management to develop a forecast tool they can use • In the process, we learn how to match the space-time scales of climate information with those of salmon management

7. A North-South see-saw in salmon production Spring chinook returns to the Columbia River mouth (1000s) Alaska pink and sockeye catch (millions) Cool PDO Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO ???

8. Scale of research vs. scale of decisions • PDO impacts on salmon across the North Pacific: large regional scales, multi-year fluctuations • Annual stock specific management decisions Research identifies the links between climate and North-South pattern of salmon production Annual management decisions made on a stock by stock (river by river) basis

9. Forecasting Oregon Coho Salmon Returns using climate observations and SST forecasts Fall Winter Spring Summer Jack returns Plankton surveys Harvest & allocation decisions(February) Fishery Run-size forecast (using SST forecast) Run-size forecast -using obs’d conditions Oregon coho salmon survival Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds

10. Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Decreasing Spawning Flows Habitat restoration can mitigate the negative impacts of Climate Change on salmon habitat Increasing Winter Flows • However, Climate Change will make • salmon restoration more difficult: • Decreasing Summer Low Flows • Increasing Winter Peak Flows • Increasing water temperatures in critical periods

11. WWA Case study: Critical water problem in the Colorado River • Ecosystems • Federal reserved rights for the Black Canyon of the Gunnison • Upper Colorado Recovery Implementation Program for Endangered Fish • Other instream flow requirements • Salinity/Water quality • Salinity Control Act implementation and mitigation of water quality problems from agricultural return flows   • Equity • Indian Water Rights, reserved when reservations were established • Livelihoods and cultures of ranching and farming on the west slope • Competition among uses • Transmountain water diversions • Agriculture vs. urban uses • Recreation and amenity instream uses vs consumptive uses, including rafting industry, hiking and hunting tourism

12. Problem and User: Reservoir Management Pitlick and Van Steeter (1997) Colorado Pike Minnow • A climate-sensitive issue is how to provide spring peak flows and late summer minimum in stream flows to support the recovery of of endangered fish. • This changing policy environment is forcing a “release” of past constraints on reservoir management, and a “reorganization” phase that is in progress • Opportunity: Reservoir managers are seeking new tools to help in a more complicated job, and thus open to using climate information; as well as other types of information and tools

13. Spring Peak Flow Scenarios x1000 x1000 Natural Average(pre 1950) Empounded Average(post 1950) Single Subthreshold Peak Double Subthreshold Peaks Practically No Peak Habitat Threshold

14. Their Challenge Our Problem Orientation reservoir capacity spill and flood miss fillingto capacity bypass flow Reservoir Hydrograph(volume in acre/feet)

15. Entry Points for Climate Information The NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into a Fall forecast of winter snowpack accumulation and with implications for subsequent April-June runoff An improved understanding of ENSO influences on seasonal evolution of snowpack that can lead to more accurately planned “start of fill” target By late Spring, the NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into summer season forecast irrigation demands Throughout the Spring -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts can be used to provide improved estimates of of volume and timing of spring peak flows needed to augment peak flows for habitat restoration as well as to enhance flood mitigation operations Throughout the Summer -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts to improve both hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and low flow mitigation

16. Decision Calendar Framework Planning Planning Planning Planning Planning Hydropower Decision Calendars Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars data data data data data Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars decisions decisions decisions decisions decisions Agriculture Production Decision Calendars tion planning tion planning tion planning tion planning tion planning gmentation gmentation gmentation gmentation gmentation releases releases releases releases releases Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

17. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Science Research in Decision making