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Historical Perspectives on Climate Change

Historical Perspectives on Climate Change. Some highlights. James Rodger Fleming STS Program, Colby College. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED?. Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory Models. Svante Arrhenius Philosophical Magazine, 1896.

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Historical Perspectives on Climate Change

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  1. Historical Perspectives on Climate Change Some highlights James Rodger Fleming STS Program, Colby College

  2. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? • Authority / Prestige • Data • Experiment / Theory • Models

  3. Svante ArrheniusPhilosophical Magazine, 1896 • Model of CO2 controlling ice ages and interglacials. • Geometric decline in CO2 causes a linear decrease in temperature. • Industrial emissions not yet of concern to him. • His climate model is often cited, but it is not continuous with modern results or concerns.

  4. Eclipse of the CO2 theory of climate change. 1900-1950

  5. Guy Stewart Callendar • The Callendar Effect -- Climatic change brought about by anthropogenic increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion. AGW in 1938! Rising temperaturesRising fossil fuel consumptionRising CO2 concentrations Detailed understanding of IR

  6. Rising temperatures ca. 1858-1939

  7. Rising CO2 Levels (1958)

  8. IR Spectrum (1941)

  9. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? • Authority / Prestige • Data • Experiment / Theory • Models • Technology

  10. Bumper V-2 Cape Canaveral 24 July 1950

  11. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? • Authority / Prestige • Data • Experiment / Theory • Models • Technology • Consensus

  12. Roger RevelleReport of The Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee, 1965 – Appendix Y. • By the year 2000 there will be about 25% more CO2 in our atmosphere than at present. This will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.

  13. Jule CharneyNational Academy of Sciences,Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment (1979) • The consensus has been that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to a warmer earth with a different distribution of climatic regimes. • Doubling CO2 in models results in 1.5 to 4.5 C warming. • Positive feedbacks will increase the warming.

  14. Establishing the IPCC • 1979 First World Climate Conference, WMO. • 1985 Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts (UNEP, WMO, ICSU). • 1988 IPCC established by WMO and UNEP.

  15. Original IPCC Charge (1988) • Science of climate and climatic change • Social and economic impacts • Possible response strategies • International legal instruments • International convention on climate

  16. If our understanding of climate is based on authority, prestige, data, experiments, theory, modeling, technology, and consensus…

  17. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHAT DO WE FEAR? WHAT SHOULD WE DO? • —Immanuel Kant, Critique of Pure Reason

  18. WHAT ROLE FOR HISTORY?

  19. Students of climate dynamics would be well-served to study science dynamics (history). • History matters – it shapes identity and behavior; it is not just a celebratory record of inevitable progress. Our species emerged during an ice age. All of history has occurred in an interglacial era. In facing unprecedented challenges, it is good to seek historical precedents.

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