Data sources for GAINS

1. Data sources for GAINS Janusz Cofala and Stefan Astrom

2. Outline Sources of data on: • activity scenarios (energy, process, agriculture and VOC) • emission factors • emission control technologies (efficiencies and costs) • baseline legislation and MTRF legislation • dispersion of air pollutants • sensitivity of ecosystems and humans to air pollution

3. Activity data EU countries: • PRIMES Baseline 2009 for energy, mobile and processes • CAPRI scenario for agriculture • national activity pathways • VOC national data (bilateral consultations from CAFE Project with updates, submissions of industrial associations)

4. Activity data Non-EU EECCA countries: Data for historic years consistent – to an extent possible - with international statistics (UN, OECD/IEA). Data for some countries verified by national experts

5. Emission factors and control technologies Emission factors • fuel characteristics • results of measurements (international and national studies – if representative enough) • emission models for transport (COPERT IV) Control technologies (reduction efficiencies and costs) • BREF documents • work of Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGEI) • other literature

6. Country-specific cost parameters What is country-specific? • wages • electricity and fuel prices (net of taxes) • costs of waste disposal etc. Data sources • inputs by national experts • international and national statistics (UN, OECD, IEA) • if details not available, correlation with GDP

7. Pollution dispersion • based on EMEP Eulerian model (includes emissions by SNAP 1 sector for 40+ regions, 50*50 km grid) • several runs for different emission levels used for development of linear pollution transfer coefficients (country to grid) • for main scenarios validity of assumptions on linearity checked ex post by full EMEP model runs • for majority of cases linear approximation good enough

8. Current legislation measures - European Union EU legislation on stationary sources plus national legislation (if stricter), e.g.: • S in Liquid Fuels Directive, • Industrial Emissions Directive, • Landfill Directive, • Legislation of agricultural emissions • Legislation on mobile sources: • EURO stages for road transport and equivalents for non-road • directives on fuel quality for mobile sources

9. Current legislation measures – EECCA and Balkan countries • national emission limit values (ELVs) on stationary combustion and process sources • countries of the European Energy Community (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia): • ELVs on stationary sources as in the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (from 2018) • S in Liquid Fuels Directive (from 2012) • mobile sources: • Euro stages for transport sources (source: national data, Diesel Net database) • corresponding fuel quality improvement • includes country-specific assumptions on vehicle turnover and imports of used cars

10. MTFR legislation • BAT for each sector • Includes constraints on applicability • structure and turnover of capital stock, • specificity of applied production technologies • Legislation on mobile sources as in the “current legislation” • no accelerated scrappage • no retrofits (e.g., fitting of particle filters) • MTFR calculated with GAINS optimization routine • Results put back to GAINS online • controls specified only for activity/sector combinations that exist in a given pathway

11. Damage to ecosystems from air pollution • Methodology developed by the CLRTAP Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE). • Ecosystem-specific critical loads and levels for: • forest soils (acidification and eutrophication) • semi-natural vegetation (eutrophication, species richness, acidification) • natura 2000 areas (acidification and eutrophication) • agricultural crops • acidification of surface waters • vegetation damage from ground-level ozone (AOT 40)

12. Damage to human health from air pollution (1) • Assessment consistent with EC4MACS Project methodologies, follows World Health Organization recommendations • Damage caused by PM2.5 concentrations (primary PM and aerosols) • WHO relative risk factors from cardiovascular and lung deseases • impacts expressed as loss of life expectancy • only mortality impacts on adults (>30 years) included in GAINS • uses UN ”life tables” and population forecasts up to 2050 • concentrations for 50*50 km grid cells, for urban areas ”city-delta” correction included • benefits assessment (done by AEA Technology) includes also impacts on morbidity andinfant mortality

13. Damage to human health from air pollution (2) • Risk from ground-level ozone (SOMO35) • premature deaths included in GAINS • benefits assessment includes also morbidity impacts (respiratory hospital admissions, restricted activity days, respiratory medication use)

14. Detailed material • EGTEI work (http://www.citepa.org/forums/egtei/egtei_index.htm) • BREF documents (http://eippcb.jrc.es/reference/ • IIASA reports on methodology and data for individual pollutants (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/publications/reports-n/reports-2) • GAINS online (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/)