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MANPRINT . Soldier Survivabilty. For MANPRINT Workshop 4-6 February 2003. By Frank Woo U.S. Army Research Laboratory Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate Air and Missile Defense White Sands, New Mexico 88002 Voice: 505-678-7989 E-Mail: fwoo@ARL.ARMY.MIL.

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slide1

MANPRINT

Soldier Survivabilty

For

MANPRINT Workshop

4-6 February 2003

By Frank Woo

U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate

Air and Missile Defense

White Sands, New Mexico 88002

Voice: 505-678-7989

E-Mail: fwoo@ARL.ARMY.MIL

slide2

Soldier Survivability (SSv) Domain

Methodology

Tools:

Parameter Assessment List (PAL)

Risk Assessment

TOPIC COVERAGE

slide3

Why?

Defined

7th Domain of MANPRINT

Soldier Survivability (SSv) Domain

slide4

Why Soldier Survivability?

VISIBILITY

NATURE OF

BATTLE

TECHNOLOGY

LIMITED

VIS OPS

INCREASED

RANGES

SOLDIER

SURVIVABILITY

MULTI-NAT’L

EQUIPMENT

BATTLE

INJURIES

SPEED OF

BATTLE

DETECTION

LETHALITY

JOINT OPS

MANEUVERABILITY

FRATRICIDE

slide5

SOLDIER SURVIVABILITY

THE 7TH DOMAIN OF MANPRINT

SS

HH

M,P,T

HFE

SSv

  • SSv officially began 1 Oct 94 per AR 602-2
  • DCSPER initiative
  • Prevent casualties through RDA rather than
  • adding survivability enhancements after fielding
  • Combat and peacetime incidents verify need
  • SLAD designated the domain assessor
  • HRED designated to provide methodology for
  • domain assessments
slide6

SOLDIER SURVIVABILITY

DEFINED

  • Reduce Fratricide
  • Reduce Detectability of the Soldier
  • Reduce Probability of Being Attacked
  • Prevent Damage
  • Minimize Injury
  • Reduce Physical and Mental Fatigue

ARL-SLAD

ARL-HRED

slide8

SURVIVABILITY ANALYSIS

CONSIDERATIONS

MISSION

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

PEACE KEEPING

COUNTER TERRORIST

GROUND

AIRBORNE

AMPHIBIOUS

LONG RANGE RECON

SPECIAL FORCES

MOBILITY

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

WEATHER

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

WIND SPEED

SOLAR RADIATION

VISIBILITY

NIGHT/ILLUMINATION

TERRAIN

GRADE

SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS

VEGETATION

ALTITUDE

FLORA AND FAUNA

WATER

ENDEMIC DISEASES

MILITARY ENVIRONMENT

BLAST/OVERPRESSURE

PROJECTILES

FLAME/INCENDIARY

DIRECTED ENERGY

ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS

OBSCURANTS

NUCLEAR RADIATION

BIOLOGICAL

CHEMICAL

SOUND

VIBRATION

SURVIVABILITY

ANALYSIS

CONSIDERATIONS

PROTECTION

CLOTHING

EQUIPMENT

WEAPONS*

INTERCHANGEABILITY

INTELLIGENCE

MEDICAL ASSISTANCE

LOGISTIC SUPPORT

ADEQUATE FORCES

MAN/MACHINE INTERFACING

PHYSIOLOGICAL

FITNESS STATE

HYDRATION STATE

NUTRITIONAL STATE

SLEEP DEBT STATUS

THERMAL STATE

FATIGUE STATE

DEGRADATION FACTORS

HUMAN FACTORS

VISION

PSYCHOLOGICAL

MENTAL STATE

MOTIVATION

VIGILANCE

PSYCHOMOTOR

ISOLATION

COMMUNICATION

TRAINING

CLAUSTROPHOBIA

slide9

SYSTEM/SOLDIER SURVIVABILITY

DON’T BE SEEN

DON’T BE HIT

DON’T BE ACQUIRED

VISUAL SIGNATURE REDUCTION

THERMAL SIGNATURE REDUCTION

RADAR SIGNATURE REDUCTION

ACOUSTIC SIGNATURE REDUCTION

MULTI-SPECTRAL SMOKE

MATERIALS

OPTICS JAMMER

IR JAMMER

LASER JAMMER

IR DECOY (FLARE)

MULTI-SPECTRAL JAMMER

RADAR JAMMER

SHAPING

COATINGS

OPTICS JAMMER

NBC SENSOR

COUNTER-FIRE

IR JAMMER

PASSIVE ARMOR

RADAR JAMMER

LASER JAMMER

REACTIVE ARMOR

ACTIVE ARMOR

SPALL- LINERS

FIRE-SUPPRESSION

COMPARTMENTS

DON’T BE PENETRATED

DON’T BE KILLED

NBC

slide10

SSv METHODOLOGY - 1

A Rating Tool Was Needed Because:

New Domain Is Complex and Interdisciplinary.

Multiple Agency Involvement Requires a Common Guidance and Consistency in Approach.

Listing of Issues for Assessment Would Operationally Define the Domain, and Show its Differences from the Other Domains.

slide11

SSv METHODOLOGY - 2

The Parameter Assessment List (PAL):

6 Components.

21 Subcomponents.

170 Issues for Rating.

Ratings are Assigned Based Upon:

- Probability of the Deficiency Occurring.

- Magnitude of the Impact on the Soldier or

the System.

Report Sent to PM & HQDA MANPRINT

slide12

Severity of Deficiency

ISSUE

To be Assessed By

Required System

Actual System

Performance

Does Not

Apply

Performance

Critical

Major

Minor

None

System likely to be detected by

threat forces because of its:

i. Radio Frequency Signature? S 3 2 1 0 ( )

ii. Millimeter Wave Signature? S 3 2 1 0 ( )

iii. Combined Signature? S 3 2 1 0 ( )

iv. Optical Cross Section? S 3 2 1 0 ( )

SOLDIER SURVIVABILITY PARAMETER

ASSESSMENT LIST COMPONENT II:

REDUCE DETECTABILITY

1. Assess the system’s signature detectability

parameter assessment list rating process
PARAMETER ASSESSMENT LIST RATING PROCESS
  • Magnitude of Impact on Soldier or System.
  • Probability of Occurrence.

Severity Rating Assigned Based On:

parameter assessment list rating parameters
PARAMETER ASSESSMENT LIST RATING PARAMETERS

Bodily Injury:

  • Death: Self-Explanatory.
  • Life-Threatening: May Result in Loss of Life or Major Limb if Not Medically Treated Within 1 Hr.
  • Serious: May Result in Loss of Life or Major Limb if Not Medically Treated Within 24 Hrs.
  • Mild: May Result in Some Loss of Performance Capability if Not Medically Treated Within 24-72 Hrs.
  • Negligible: Medical Treatment is Optional, and is For Comfort and to Prevent Infection.
parameter assessment list rating parameters15
PARAMETER ASSESSMENT LIST RATING PARAMETERS

System Damage: (Damage to System Which May Cause Soldiers to be Injured Directly or Indirectly.)

  • Loss of System: Self-Explanatory.
  • Heavy: Considerable Loss of Capability.
  • Light: Reduced Capability.
  • Negligible: No Loss of Capability.
parameter assessment list rating parameters16
PARAMETER ASSESSMENT LIST RATING PARAMETERS

Probability of Occurrence:

  • Frequent: Likely to Occur Frequently.
  • Occasional: Likely to Occur Sometime in the Life of the System.
  • Remote: Unlikely But Possible to Occur in the Life of the System.
  • Improbable: So Unlikely, It Can Be Assumed It May Not Be Experienced.

Note: This Category is Adapted From AR 40-10, Health Hazard Assessment Program in Support of the Army Materiel Acquisition Decision Process, 1 Oct 1991.

parameter assessment list rating process17
PARAMETER ASSESSMENT LIST RATING PROCESS

Severity Index

Criteria

Loss of System

Major

Minor

slide19

RISK ASSESSEMENT METHODOLOGY

  • Provide a measure of expected system/soldier survivability.
  • Probability of Encounter (threat).
  • Confidence Level (method of analysis: theoretical, simulation, live fire tests).
  • Note: Adapted from ARL-TR 1045, Vulnerability Risk Assessment, US Army Research Laboratory/Survivability Lethality Analysis Directorate, June 2000.
system soldier survivability lethality analysis structure

LETHALITY

SURVIVABILITY

System

vs

Natural

Opn Env

System

vs

EM (E3)

Opn Env

System

vs

DS Threat

Spectrum

System

vs

Spec Opns

Forces

System

vs

Info Wfr

CMs

Interceptor

vs

Target

System

vs

Convention

Weapons

System

vs

Nuclear

Weapons

System

vs

Chem/Bio

Weapons

System

vs

Penaid

CMs

System

vs

Elct Wfr

CMs

Radar

vs

DS Threat

Spectrum

Radar

vs

Convention

Weapons

Radar

vs

Nuclear

Weapons

Radar

vs

Chem/Bio

Weapons

Radar

vs

Penaid

CMs

Radar

vs

Elct Wfr

CMs

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

DS Threat

Spectrum

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

Convention

Weapons

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

Nuclear

Weapons

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

Chem/Bio

Weapons

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

Penaid

CMs

Intcptr/Lchr

vs

Elct Wfr

CMs

BMC3

vs

DS Threat

Spectrum

BMC3

vs

Convention

Weapons

BMC3

vs

Nuclear

Weapons

BMC3

vs

Chem/Bio

Weapons

BMC3

vs

Penaid

CMs

BMC3

vs

Elct Wfr

CMs

Soldier

System/SoldierSurvivability/Lethality Analysis Structure

classical system analysis methodology

System Description/

Definition

Technical Design

- Critical Functions

- Critical Components

Tactical Operation

- Critical Operations/TTPs

Susceptibility

Analysis

[ Threat Effects ]

Vulnerability Risk

Assessment

ORD:

system rqmts

Timeframe:

- IOC

- IOC + 10

Critical

Issues

PSUSCEPTIBLE:

Magnitude

/ Severity of

Effect Impact

PSURVIVABLE = 1 - PVULNERABLE

= 1 - PENCOUNTERPSUSCEPTIBLE

Theoretical

Analysis

- Math Models

Simulation

Analysis

- Digital (SW)

- HWIL (HW)

Test Data

Analysis

- Lab Test

- Field Test

STAR:

threat capabilities

Threat

Description/

Definition

Technical Design

- Techniques/Effects

- Devices/Sources

Tactical Operation

- Tactics/Feasibility

PENCOUNTER:

Likelihood of

Effect Encounter

Technical

Parameters

Tactical

Probabilities

- Offensive Threat

- Def Sup Threat: Weapons & CMs

- Operational Environments:

Natural & Man-Made; Friend & Foe

- Baseline (Existing) & Reactive (Projected)

PENCOUNTER= PTARGET PATTACK PHIT (APPLICATION)

PSUSCEPTIBLE= PKILL / HIT (APPLICATION)

ClassicalSystem AnalysisMethodology

risk analysis matrix health safety hazards mil std 882c

Hazard Risk Assessment Code Risk Level Decision Authority

I A-D II A-C III A High Army Acquisition Executive (AAE)

I E II D III B-C IV A Medium Program Executive Officer (PEO)

II E III D-E IV B-E Low Program Manager (PM)

S

e

v

e

r

i

t

y

Catastrophic

I

H

a

z

a

r

d

Critical

II

Marginal

III

Negligible

IV

E

D

C

B

A

Reasonably

Probable

Improbable

Remote

Occasional

Frequent

Hazard Probability

Risk Analysis MatrixHealth & Safety Hazards> MIL-STD-882C <

vulnerability risk assessment matrix sample

Threat Vulnerability Risk [Near-Term]

Threat Effect

Susceptibility

[ Magnitude / Severity

of Threat Effect Impact ]

Very Low

No Concern

[Accept Risk]

Low

Minimal Concern

[Investigate Options]

Medium

Minor Issue

[Provide Options]

High

Major Issue

[Remedy ASAP]

Very High

Critical Issue

[Remedy Immediately]

Confidence:

Vuln Risk

L

M

H

100

Very High

Catastrophic / Extreme

CRITICAL

H

Conf:

Susc

M

90

L

High

Extensive / Significant

MAJOR

L

M

H

Confidence:

Probability

60

[ Confidence ]:

H: adequate

analysis/data

M: marginal

analysis/data

L: inadequate

analysis/data

Medium

Moderate

MARGINAL

40

Low

Limited / Insignificant

MINOR

10

Very Low

Minimal / None

NEGLIGIBLE

0

0

10

40

60

90

100

Very Low

VERY UNLIKELY

or Improbable

Low

UNLIKELY

but Possible

Medium

UNCERTAIN

but Possible

High

LIKELY

and Probable

Very High

VERY LIKELY

or Certain

Threat Probability

[ Likelihood of Occurrence / Encounter / Attack ]

Vulnerability RiskAssessment Matrix(SAMPLE)

slide24

Threat Vulnerability Risk [Near-Term]

Threat Effect

Susceptibility

[ Magnitude / Severity

of Threat Effect Impact ]

Confidence:

Vuln Risk

Very Low

No Concern

[Accept Risk]

Low

Minimal Concern

[Investigate Options]

Medium

Minor Issue

[Provide Options]

High

Major Issue

[Remedy ASAP]

Very High

Critical Issue

[Remedy Immediately]

L

M

H

100

5,12

1-4

H

Very High

Catastrophic / Extreme

CRITICAL

Conf:

Susc

[12] GBE,S: SOF

[15] GBE,S: Mult

Thrt Atk (Sim/Seq)

[1] R: Radar ARM

11,15

6-10

13,14

M

90

L

[2] GBE,S:ConvWpn

[4] IFI: Nuc Wpn

[8] R,I,B: PCMComb

High

Extensive / Significant

MAJOR

L

M

H

[7] R,I: PCM (Dec)

[11] BM: IW CM

Confidence:

Prob of Encounter

60

[ Confidence ]:

H: adequate

analysis/data

M: marginal

analysis/data

L: inadequate

analysis/data

Medium

Moderate

MARGINAL

[5] GBE,S: C/B Wpn

[10] R: EW CM (SL)

[3] GBE,S: NucWpn

[6] R,I: PCM (Den)

[9] R: EW CM (ML)

40

Low

Limited / Insignificant

MINOR

[13] GBE,S:EM Env

[14] GBE,S:Nat Env

10

Very Low

Minimal / None

NEGLIGIBLE

0

0

10

40

60

80

100

Very Low

VERY UNLIKELY

or Improbable

Low

UNLIKELY

but Possible

Medium

UNCERTAIN

but Possible

High

LIKELY

and Probable

Very High

VERY LIKELY

or Certain

Threat Probability

[ Likelihood of Occurrence / Encounter / Attack ]

System/Soldier SurvivabilityDefense Suppression Threat Spectrum(SAMPLE)

summary
SUMMARY
  • SSv Domain Now 9 Years in Existence.
  • SSv is About Successful Operation of Equipment and an Individual’s Continued Ability to Live in a Battlefield Environment.
  • SSv Domain Now Recognized Within U.S. Army Acquisition, and by Outside Organizations.
definition
Definition

Survivability - the capability of a system and crew to avoid or withstand a man-made hostile environment without suffering an abortive impairment of its ability to accomplish its designated mission.

{DoD Regulation 5000.2-R}

habitability hab
Habitability (HAB)
  • Defined as the acceptability of conditions on-board a ship or vessel in terms of vibration, noise, indoor climate, lighting conditions, physical and spatial characteristics.
  • Affects human performance by increasing physical and mental fatigue.
  • Increase in human errors.