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Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change Innovation Drivers. by Kevin Fay Executive Director International Climate Change Partnership November 20, 2004 Villa Vigoni, Loveno di Menaggio.

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Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change

Innovation Drivers

by

Kevin Fay

Executive Director

International Climate Change Partnership

November 20, 2004

Villa Vigoni, Loveno di Menaggio

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Principle Industrial Drivers for Innovation

  • Governmental Policy

  • Market Response to Supply and Demand

  • Consumer Demand

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

U.S. Federal Legislative Policy

  • Comprehensive Energy legislation

  • Energy tax initiatives

  • Clear Skies legislation

  • Carbon cap and trade legislation

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Federal Regulatory Policy

  • Registry issues 1605b

  • Mercury rules

  • New Source Review rules

  • Methane to markets

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Individual State Actions

  • Northeast (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative)

  • California: Hydrogen Highway and Carbon reduction on autos

  • Southwest Gov’s Coalition and renewable mandates at the state level

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

The global energy picture

  • Increased prices for oil, gas

  • Increased demand

  • Secure supplies?

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Projected U.S. Growth Rates

Source: U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Projected U.S. Electric Growth

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2002, Department of Energy

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Significant Improvements in Existing and Development of New Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes. 2004. “Launching a Technology Revolution,” in Climate Policy for the 21st Century: Meeting the Long-Term Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Industrial Response Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • Coal vs. Gas

  • Nuclear comeback

  • LNG

  • Technology vs. fuel switch

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Access and Supply Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • NIMBY (Pipelines and Terminals)

  • New exploration horizons and regions

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Consumer Demands Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • Clean vs. Dirty

  • Cost of operation

  • Reliability

  • Availability

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Future Business Issues for Attention Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • Be engaged in all various global efforts

  • Maintain ability to capture early actions regardless of regime

  • Enhance the opportunities for global trading system

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Macro Points to Monitor Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • Assure that changes in demand will be supported by supplies and infrastructure

  • That regulatory actions provide certainty and clarity for investment returns

  • Flexibility in the ability to meet future targets

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Where’s the Big Bang? Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

  • Utilities

  • Transportation

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Global GHG Emissions - 2000 Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

Source: www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

U.S. Carbon Emissions by Sector Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations

Source: U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Technological Breakthroughs Will Save Trillions of Dollars While Stabilizing Concentrations

Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes. 2004. “Launching a Technology Revolution,” in Climate Policy for the 21st Century: Meeting the Long-Term

Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Developing Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Can Save Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes. 2004. “Launching a Technology Revolution,” in Climate Policy for the 21st Century: Meeting the Long-Term Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Improvements in Energy Intensity Achieve Significant Emission Reductions

Source: Edmonds, Jae, 2004. Presentation to the Annual Meeting of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Project.

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net


Transatlantic dialogue on climate change innovation drivers

Conclusion Emission Reductions

  • We need a quantum leap vs. an incremental gain

  • We need to provide markets to step forward and provide most of these developments

  • We need business and government to work across all of the political time zones

2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net