1 / 22

COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400 001  15 th Naval Higher Command Course December 2 nd 2002

COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400 001  15 th Naval Higher Command Course December 2 nd 2002 CHINA’S STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION : AN ANALYSIS OF ITS GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPACT Dr. W.LAWRENCE S.PRABHAKAR, Ph.D., ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

duena
Download Presentation

COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400 001  15 th Naval Higher Command Course December 2 nd 2002

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. COLLEGE OF NAVAL WARFARE, MUMBAI - 400 001  15th Naval Higher Command Course December 2nd 2002 CHINA’S STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION : AN ANALYSIS OF ITS GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPACT Dr. W.LAWRENCE S.PRABHAKAR, Ph.D., ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE MADRAS CHRISTIAN COLLEGE CHENNAI.

  2. Influences of SunZi, Confucius, Menicus on Chinese Strategic Thought: Strategic Culture – The most viable method to understand Chinese Strategic Thought. - Civilizational Antiquity - Unique Historical Dynamics - Unique Geo-Strategic Location - Unique Lingual Cultural Heritage Sustenance of Strategic Culture over 5000 years - SunZi, The Art of War - Confucius, The Analects - Predominant Strategic Paradigm of China: Confucius – Menicus Pragamatism Concept of Absolute Flexibility Concept of The Three Heavens Concept of The Middle Kingdom

  3. Salient Principles of Chinese Strategic Thought: - Deception – The Essence of all Warfare Subtlety, Sophistication, Maneuver, Covert Operations and the Indirect Approach - Centrality of Armed Forces Political and Praetorian Purposes Political Power Flows from the Barrel of the Gun - Human Dimensions of Conflict Primacy of Man Over Material Primacy of Spirit and Life Energy Over Matter - Essence of Counter Strategy Significance of Winning Over the Adversary by negation of his Strategy Primacy of Spirit and Life Energy Over Matter - People’s War – Total War (MaoTseTung) People’s War Under Hi-Tech Conditions (Limited War: Conventional and Nuclear Forces) - Primacy of Human Force Over Technology Motivation, Resilience, Élan Vital

  4. China’s Changing Strategic Doctrines - Dominant Elite in the Post 1949 Era: MaoTseTung; DengXiaoPing; Jiang Zemin MaoTseTung – Revolutionary & Radical Militarism; People’s War; Nuclear Weapons – Paper Tigers DengXiaoPing: Pragmatic Flexibility; Four Modernizations; Primacy of Economy and Technology Five Changing Paradigms: - Debate of Ideologue Vs the Technocrat (MaoTseTung) - Integration of Defence and Development (DengXiaoPing) - Struggle against Nuclear Hegemony (US and Soviet/Russian Domination) - Shift from Disarmament to Nonproliferation - New Paradigms of Chinese Nuclear Activism

  5. Strategic Determinants of Chinese Behaviour in the Modernization Period - Pursuit of Comprehensive National Power Economic Technological Strength: Basis for Strategic Power - Sovereignty Concerns Taiwan Reunification; Disputes in the South China Sea; Conflict over Resources in the Region Zealous preservation of vital National Interest - Regime Maintenance: Preservation of Political Power; Monopoly of Communist Party: Consolidation of Economic Strength under Authoritarian Regimes - Dissatisfaction with Current International Order China – Dissatisfied Power; Penchant for Power Expansion; Anti-Hegemonic Defiance of US Hegemonic Power Quest for Multi-Polarity or Align with US as peer Partner - Sino – US condonmium

  6. Factors Affecting Chinese Strategic Behaviour - Acculturation to International Order Assumption that China would reform to International Order; Induction of China into WTO would “soften” their aggressive behaviour - Democratization: Spread of Liberal Democracy – Hub for Political Reform; Rule of Law, Economic Liberalization, Free Markets, Structural Reform - Future of the PLA – Vanguard of the Regime; Bolster the Regime in event of Crisis of Governance Dynamics of PLA Modernization - PLA Strategic Strengths Sizeable Conventional Forces 2.8 million compared to 1.4 million US; 1.2 million Russia Man power Reduction and Technological modernization Induction of New Weapon Systems: Technology intensive drive - Strategic Nuclear Capability: ICBMs DF-31 (10-20) IRBMs & MRBMs (DF-4, DF-5, DF-3) - MIRV capability – GPS/GLONASS/Twin Star

  7. Nuclear Naval Arsenal - Xia Class SSBNs; Han Class; Ming Class; Song Class Nuclear SSNs Julang Class SLBMs; JL-1; JL-2, Modified Xia Class tipped with JL-2 - Chemical & Biological Weapons China signatory of 1972 Chemical & Biological Conventions; Clandestine C&B Warfare Capabilities Creation of Anti-C&B Warfare Units - Surface to Surface Missiles Substantial Chinese Inventory of SSMs: Missiles – Weapons of Quick Resort; Intimidation Tactics; Icons of Chinese Commercial Military Sales Missile Modernization; Improved Payloads; Increased Accuracy; GPS Guidance; Variable NBC Payloads Geographical Terrain - China’s Geographical Terrain suited for Guerilla Warfare – People’s War High Levels of Attrition against Invading force - Causality Tolerance; Willingness to absorb High Causality; Korean War – 300,000 to 1 million

  8. PLA – Strategic Weakness - Obsolete Equipment; Ex-Soviet Vintage Mig19’s (J-6), Mig21’s (J-7), T-54,T-55, Ex-Soviet MBT – Chinese Type 59, Type 62 MBTs PLA Navy Warships, Ex-Soviet Riga Type frigate - Jianghu Class Frigate: Ex-Soviet Whiskey, Romeo Class SS adapted in Chinese Models - Poor Logistics Obsolescent Air and Naval Logistical Capabilities; Defensive Nature of Military Campaign; Improvements in the anvil; Procurement and Buildup of Logistical Air & Naval Craft - Command, Control & Communications Deficiencies Lack of Hi-speed, Hi-bandwidth redundant communication system; Geographical Spread – Infrastructure weakness, Obsolescent Equipment Advancement in C4I2SR Capabilities as a result of RMA Chinese RMA – Quantum Leap in this Sector - Poor Quality of Personnel & Training: Less Premium on Personnel training, Less Time on Simulated Combat Operations; Lack of Joint Service Training

  9. Pathways in China’s Military Modernization - Two Pathways of Military Modernizations – Procurement from Foreign sources – Various Technologies; Limited Means; Divergent Operating Platforms Operational Difficulties; Problems of Maintenance & Training; Complications of Hardware Induction; Problems in License Production – Attempts to Reverse Engineering - Home Grown Technologies – Mass Production of Licensed Technologies, Mixed Results, Problems of Quality Control; Technological Lag; Attempts to Hybridize Technology - Nuclear Weapons: Initial Soviet Assistance; Self-reliance & Indigenous Technological Innovation - Ballistic Missiles: Range of Chinese Ballistic Missiles; Chinese Specialization in IRBM & MRBM production and Mass Export DF-11 (SRBM) to DF-51(ICBM); Development of Solid propellants; MIRV Capabilities; - Cruise Missiles primarily antiship variety Ex-Soviet

  10. - HY-1 First Chinese Cruise Missile based on SS-N2A STYX YJ-1 or C-801 Solid Propellant Booster, 40 Km Range based on French Exocet – Similar Design YJ-2 or C-802 Solid Propellant Sustainer, 120 Km Range YJ-2 Land Attack Version/GPS equipped 180 Km with TERCOM capabilities; Induction of SS-N-22/23 M80 SUNBURN/MOSKIT equipped on Russian supplied Sovremenny Class destroyers - Nuclear Submarines: 5 Han-Class SSNs; 1 Xia-Class SSBN; Type 093 SSN modeled after Ex-Soviet Victor III SSN & Type 094 SSN - SAMS: HQ-2 Medium to High Altitude, Radar Guided Ex-Soviet SA-2; HQ-7 Low to Medium Altitude Radar Guided; Ex-French Crotale; HN-5 Shoulder Portable Infra-Red Ex-Soviet SA-7; QW1 Advanced Shoulder Portable Infra Red Ex-US FIM-92 Stinger; HQ-61 Low to Medium Altitude; LY-60 Low to Medium Altitude; HQ-9 Advanced All Altitude – SA-10; PAC Patriot - New Fighter Attack Air Craft: Current PLAAF J-10 High Performance Single Engine FGA produced with Israeli & Russian Assistance; High-Low Mix Preference

  11. - Future Generation FGA-XXJ of SU27 and F-15 Class IOY – 2015 Others Strategic Programs - Chinese Space Launch Capabilities: Wide Variety of Space Payloads: Meteorological, Communications, Surveillance; New Generation of Photo Reconnaissance FSW-3 Series with 1 m Resolution; Linkages with US Landsat; French SPOT; Israeli EROS and Russian Remote Sensing Satellites; Chinese Participation in Iridium, Globalstar Satellite Communication Systems; Partnership in US GPS/ Russian GLONASS System - Directed Energy Weapons: New R&D into High- Powered Micro Wave Weapons and Lasers; Advance Research into Electronic Counter Measures - Information Warfare: Secret Chinese Efforts in Offensive & Defensive Strategies in IW

  12. SEA POWER PERSPECTIVES OF CHINA: SPECIFIC CONTEXT TO IOR, INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA • PLA Naval Modernization and expansion: • Brown water to Green water capability: Future Projections to Blue Water Capability: Offshore Defense Concept. • Sino-South Asian Maritime links : Provides China’s link to East Africa and Straits of Hormuz • Port Calls; Karachi, Colombo, Chittagong. • Economic aid, technical assistance,military hardware supplies for low budget South Asian States/allies on concessional terms • Sustained covert transfer of WMD technologies to Pakistan • Pakistan Myanmar anchors for China in the South Asian Region - striving to neutralize India • Karachi, Gawadar in Pakistan ; Hainggyi Katan islands Great Cocos in Myanmar. • Role of COSCO in PLAN activities • Future potential to base PLAN nuclear subs in the Arabian Sea SSN/SSGN access to Pakistan

  13. PLA NAVAL STRATEGY: SPECIFIC CONTEXTS TO IOR, INDIA & SOUTH ASIA • Naval diplomacy: Port calls, joint naval exercises in the region • Naval basing facilities: Access to Gawadar in Pakistan, Yangon Hainggyi Akyab Mergui, Great Coco islands off Andaman Sea. SIGINT/ELINT facilities. • Chinese arms transfers : Massive military hardware supplies to Myanmar and Pakistan. • China is comfortable with the authoritarian regimes in Pakistan and Myanmar: • Bolsters them with arms transfers for political security reasons • Objective: Tilt regional balance against India with tactical alliances and gain naval access in the region / Regional Naval alliance • Control of Seagates: Beijing’s objective is to control the critical sea straits: Taiwan straits, Straits of Malacca, Singapore Straits and possibly uninterrupted access to the Straits of Hormuz. • Apparent intent; Rapid surge into the Indian Ocean via Straits of Malacca access to Myanmar and Pakistan. • Integrated Sea Control Strategy Offshore Defense Concept: Limited Sea control and Sea Denial capability through assortment of limited numbers of high performance surface combatants and submarines. • Possible deployment of SSNs and SSGNs in the region.

  14. SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL NAVAL DEVELOPMENTS: IN BEIJING’S INTEREST • April 2001 Pakistan-Bangladesh joint naval exercises followed by a Pakistan naval squadron visiting Yangon • Pakistan’s naval flotilla the first ever foreign naval flotilla to visit Yangon precedes Gen.Pervez Musharaff’s visit to Yangon • Implications of the new Pakistan - Bangladesh naval ties: • Recent sour in India-Bangladesh relations/ Border skirmishes. Bangladesh military’s traditional hostility to India. • Future possibilities: Pakistan’s naval ships could dock in Myanmar waters during a possible conflict with India. • Pakistani naval surveillance of Indian Naval activities in the Eastern / Far Eastern Naval Command • Sino-Pakistani monitoring of telemetry data of Indian missile tests from Balasore Chandipur Missile test ranges.

  15. Source: Reported Chinese Arms Purchases: RAND Research Report MR-1082-AF

  16. THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: THE FUTURE SUPER POWER - Multi-Dimensional Regional Competitor - Regional Aerospace Dominance - Regional and Off-Shore Naval Power Projection - Increased Defense Spending - Emphasis on Quality Vs Quantity - Mature Defense Industrial Base Rationalization of Defense - Industrial Production Selective Integration of Foreign High Technology Development of Technology Work Force Long Range Strategic R&D Vision - Regional Hegemony; Enhanced Global Status - Enhanced Chinese WMD Warfare Capabilities - Ambitious Space Faring Power - Determined Long Range Power Projection

  17. CHINA’S GRAND STRATEGIES: CHINA AND US: >Chinese perceptions of its emergent power status. >Emphasis on the development of Comprehensive National Power(CNP) >Emphasis on development of RMA technologies. >Chinese strategies of Cooptation and Prevention: Dual policies vis-à-vis US. >Economic engagement with US: China’s constant endeavor to weaken US Bilateral relations >China’s entry to WTO: facilitation by US >Post 9/11 developments: US-China convergence. >New US Strategic perceptions of China in post-Quadrennial Review Report 2001

  18. CHINA and INDIA: • Sino-Indian relations: A contest of the Asian Balance of Power. • China’s Strategic domain has overwhelming influence on India: domestic & external realms. • Strategies of Engagement: CSBMs; Trade;Counter terrorism. • Indian Deterrence & Power: Response to Chinese renewed aggrandizement.Nuclear and Missile postures.:Limitations are inherent. • Multilateral Grand Strategic Alliances: US, EU, Russia, Japan. • India‘ Expanded ties with ASEAN: Counter balance PRC’s influence.

  19. China & Russia: Bilateral Issues: Contentious, overspill could aggravate tensions. Military-Technological Cooperation: Positive signs; Sino-Russian Strategic alliance counter to US NMD, unilateralism. Scenarios of Change: I China succeeds Reforms; Transforms into hegemonistic power.Russian interests affected. II.China’s reforms collapse: instability/ local wars. III Sino-Russian alliance against a hegemonistic US. Sino-Russian Strategic Understanding 2001.

  20. China & ASEAN: Economics & Security:forces of unity and divergence. Pragmatism and Realism: Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations ASEAN concerns of PLA Modernization and Regional security. Local wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force postures: Missile reality ASEAN Engagement of PRC in regional peace stakes Good Regional Atmospherics. ASEAN & PRC Multilateral security framework.

  21. China & ASEAN: Economics & Security:forces of unity and divergence. Pragmatism and Realism: Hallmarks of ASEAN-PRC relations ASEAN concerns of PLA Modernization and Regional security. Local wars and Strategic Symbolism of PLA force postures: Missile reality ASEAN Engagement of PRC in regional peace stakes Good Regional Atmospherics. ASEAN & PRC Multilateral security framework.

  22. CHINA & RMA. Asymmetric Warfare;CNP, Economic-Technological quantum leaps; New Technologies and Weapons systems: smart weaponry and nano-technology Space combat;Radiational combat;Paralysis combat; Cyber warfare;Robot combat Intelligent warfare: Assassins Mace

More Related