Toward a coordinated global carbon observation and analysis system A. Bombelli

1. Toward a coordinated global carbon observation and analysis system A. Bombelli GEOCARBON Project Manager CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Italy GEO CARBON

2. Outline • Why GEOCARBON? • Short history (just 1 slide!) of “EU-Carbon” Project • Link between GEOCARBON and GEO • GEOCARBON overview + some first result

3. The Global Carbon Cycle What’s missing?

4. The Global Carbon Cycle coordination needed for global integration

5. The EU contribution to a global GEO carbon observing system past Present Future • FP5/FP6, CARBOEUROPE cluster, CarboAfrica, CarboOcean, others: put in place and/or enhance the EU carbon monitoring system; improved knowledge of the European (and African) C-cycle. • FP7, COCOS: coordinated European and global carbon relevant initiatives; defined the GEO C-Strategy. • FP7, ICOS: set up the infrastructure for a integrated and standardized monitoring of C-cycle at global level, starting from Europe. • FP7, GEOCARBON: global coordination toward the design and development of an Operational Global Integrated Carbon • Observation and Analysis System (built on EU projects’ experience). • ? Experience Strategy Infrastructure Coordination Operation (beyond research projects) Priority: sustain operational infrastructures for earth observation (particularly in situ)

6. GEOCARBON European Commission (EC) / Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) Starting date: 01/10/2011 Duration: 36 months Total funds: 8.6 M€ (6.6 M€ from EC) Project Coordinator: Prof. Riccardo Valentini Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change CMCC, Italy European project but global contribution! To develop a coordinated Global Carbon Observation and Analysis System, supporting the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) toward building a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for carbon (last 3 years of the GEO WP).

7. & • Conceived in response to a FP7 call for proposals to support one EU project specifically contributing to GEO at global level in the area of C-cycle. • Shaped around the GEO Work Plan + task CL-02, ‘Global Carbon Observations and Analysis’, to meet the “carbon side of the GEO 2015 Target on Climate: • better understanding of the global carbon cycle • development and facilitation of a comprehensive (atmosphere, ocean, land) global carbon observation and analysis system in support of monitoring based decision-making and related environmental treaty obligations. • Activities embedded in the task CL-02 and coordinated with the GEO Secretariat and GEO global community monitoring C-cycle. • Different from previous EC “Carbon” projects: not just independent research but a contribution to GEO!

8. GEO Task CL-02 • GEOCARBON linkages to GEO – in practice: • work aligned to the GEO Work Plan • regular update of the GEO Work Plan (2012-2015) • update the GEO task sheet on carbon (task CL-02) • update the GEO C-strategy • participate in relevant GEO meetings • involve (and collaborate with) the global GEO community on C-cycle • Task CL-02, Global Carbon Observation and Analysis • Antonio Bombelli (Task Coordinator & PoC) • Leading partners (open and volunteer partnership): • Australia (CSIRO), EC (GEOCARBON), France (LSCE), Italy (CMCC, University of Tuscia), Japan (AIST, JAXA), Netherlands (University of Amsterdam), Norway (Bergen), UK (University of Sheffield), USA (NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS), CEOS, GTOS, WMO (GAW) • Planned activities • Improve information and products, Outreach, Carbon Portal • Improve global observation networks measuring carbon pools and fluxes, considering both CO2 and CH4 • Improve (resolution and accuracy) carbon budgets at different scales • Develop an integrated Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) ingesting data from multiple data sources at different scale • Validate space-based GHG observations and consolidate data requirements for the next-generation GHG monitoring missions

9. GEO Task CL-02 partnership

10. GEO Task CL-02 partnership

11. GEOCARBON – the Partnership 1 Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy 2 University of East Anglia, United Kingdom 3 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETHZ), Switzerland 4 University of Wageningen, The Netherlands 5 University of Oxford, United Kingdom 6 VU University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 7 University of Leeds, United Kingdom 8 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany 9 University of Versailles, LSCE France 10 Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), The Netherlands 11 Second University of Naples, Italy 12 University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom 13 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC), Norway 14 University of Tuscia, Italy 15 University of Bergen, Norway 16 GAMMA Remote Sensing Research and Consulting AG, Switzerland 17 Cameroon Biodiversity Conservation Society, Cameroon 18 FastOpt, Germany 19 University of Bristol, United Kingdom 20 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria 21 Research Institute of Nuclear Energy (IPEN), Brazil 22 Food and Agriculture Organisation of The United Nations (FAO) 23 Free University of Brussels, Belgium 24 National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), France 25 University of Hamburg, Germany

12. Components Project Management 1- Observation data streams 3- Specifications and Network Design 7- Cost benefit analysis 2- Data assimilation system (CCDAS) 6- CH4 8- Outreach and GEO Interface 5- Global and regional synthesis 4- Tropical hotspots Data exchange Coordination links

13. Component 1 - Observations data streams Provide an aggregated set of harmonized global carbon data. WP1: Land stocks & change WP2: Land-atmfluxes WP3: Lateral fluxes GEOCARBON as DATA PROVIDER to GEO community WP6: Atmospheric & other WP4: Oceaninv. & fluxes WP5: Anthropogenicfluxes WP7: Integration & synthesis Carbonoffice Component 2 Component 4

14. Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas V2 • SOCAT: world largest surface CO2 database: >9 million CO2 data (+ sea characteristics, i.e. temperature, salinity, etc.) • Time frame: 1968-2011 • Second version (blue lines) • supported by GEOCARBON: • 60% data more than previous vs (red) • Uniform format • Transparent, fully documented • Open accessible by Spring 2013 • Supported by UNESCO/SCOR’s IOCCP, SOLAS and IMBER CMP1 (example) www.socat.info

15. Global land stocks and changes CMP1 (example) www.rainfor.org M. Herold, Geocarbon WP1

16. Global Forest Biomass CMP1 (example) • Derive a global abovegroundforestbiomassdataset • (end of 2013) • Strategy: • Combine existingdatasets (weightedaverageapproach) • Regional validation (independent field data and local maps) • Specifications: • Spatial resolution: 1 Km • Variable: Aboveground live biomass of trees with dbh >10 cm • (expansion for 0 – 10 cm may be also performed) • Reference period: circa 2005 – 2010 • (depending on the reference years of the input maps) •  Validation: Discrepancy map & Error statistics COORDINATION WITH GFOI ENSURED: GEOCARBON WP1 leader, Martin Herold, member of advisory board for methods and guidance for GFOI GSV - Santoro, 2012

17. GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL http://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/geocarbon/Home.php

18. GEOCARBON DATA POLICY • Data Policy • Promoting easy data access and data sharing in compliance with the GEOSS data sharing principles. • Sharing data: mutual benefits between data providers and users • GEOCARBON database will include data also from external providers, according to their respective data policy; providers will be involved in scientific activities and data use. • Tracked record of data downloaders: data providers receive a notification when a userdownload their data; use of data should be authorized. • Data will be made available after a minimum time delay (6-12 months). Data directly available without authorization after 2 ysfrom the end of the project.  • Identification of the data generated by GEOCARBON will be guaranteed by the Digital Object Identifier (DOI). Data treatment • Standardization, harmonization, storage and distribution of the products • Check: data format, time and space resolution, land/ocean mask etc. • QA/QC for all products to be delivered to the other components. • netCDF formats with tools and consultancy provided to partners who are not familiar with this. • Transparent web interface with user registration for file download according to GEOSS data sharing principles.

19. GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL Data owner perspetive: Functioning of the the data-portal Registration get username and password Data upload Decide if data should be publicly available Define owners and co-owners Provide additional information on the dataset, e.g. Title, description, version ... (optional) Data consistency check Done by data manager at MPI-BGC check of data format and meta-information, Units, method description, etc Dataset is visible on the geocarbon data portal Title, description and metainformation of the file are visible and Searchable for everyone Maybe added to GEOSS search index in the future

20. GEOCARBON DATA PORTAL Data user perspective: Functioning of the the data-portal Is the dataset flagged as publicly available? yes no yes Is the downloader a member of the GEOCARBON project? Accept data policy no grant download You are asked to write a request message, which is sent to the data owner, he can ... Notification email to data owner Not grant No download

21. Component 2 Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System Ocean & terrestrialin situ data Land imager (SAR: Biomass) Land use & forest data Ocean model ecosystem model Remote sensing atmospheric data Anthropogenic emissions Atmospheric model CO2 conc. (GOSAT, OCO2,…) Wind & Temp. profile 5 global data assimilation systems (simultaneously integrating models and observations of the land, ocean and atmosphere carbon cycle) + 2 ocean-only process models. Natural & Human GHG emission map

22. Component 3 - Global Carbon Observing System accuracy requirements and network design Define the detailed requirements for an operational integrated global carbon observing system. Considering: different (ground and space based) networks sampling the ocean, the land and the atmospheric carbon reservoirs. Including: accuracy requirements, network performance, gap analysis, and feasibility.

23. EOS land use Atmospheric concentrations Biomass inventories Ecosystem fluxes River carbon GEOCARBON Component 4 C- cycle in the tropics Combining: Case study: the observing system in the tropics: Amazon and Africa Reduce the uncertainty of the net carbon balance and trends of tropical South America and Africa in order to improve regional C-budgets. GEO IX PLENARY – European Commission side event. Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 21-23 November

24. RAINFOR monitoring in S. America www.rainfor.orgwww.afritron.orgwww.forestplots.net RAINFOR: more than 200 partners & 30 nations. Global collaborative measurements of >800 plots since 2000. Common protocols, for field monitoring of forests’ biomass, biodiversity and long-term carbon balance + data analysis RAINFOR in South America: > 350 field plots, of which 139 in Brazil 1985 – now! Now coordinated with GEOCARBON! RAINFOR Moore funded plots         Intensive plots       Collaborators' plots        Pre 2008 plots

25. RAINFOR includes O. Phillips1, Y. Malhi2, J. Lloyd1, T. Baker1, G. Lopez Gonzalez1,L. Arroyo3,4, N. Higuchi5, T. Killeen3,6, W. Laurance7,8, S. Lewis1,9, A. Monteagudo10,11, F. Ramirez, D. Neill4, P. Núñez Vargas10, N. Silva12,13, J. Terborgh14, R. Vásquez Martínez11, S. Almeida16, R. Brienen1, J. Chave18, J. A. Comiskey19, C. Czimczik, A. Di Fiore20, T. Erwin19, T. Feldpausch1, E. Jimenez, S. Patiño1, 22, J. Peacock1, N. Pitman15, A. Prieto, C.A. Quesada23,1, M. Saldias3, M. Silveira, A. Torres Lezama24, B. Vinceti25, E. Alvarez26, M.C. Peñuela, A. Rudas-Ll27, L. Anderson2, L. Aragao2, S. Brown17, N.D. Cardozo, K.-J. Chao1, M. Garcia-Hernandez1, J. Silva, E. Honorio, I. Huamantupa, A. Peña Cruz, H. Ramirez, R. Salomão, N. Salinas, M. Schwarz, A. Sota, H. terSteege, J. Stropp, G. van der Heijden1, H. Keeling1, C. Kuebler6, S. Laurance7,8, H. Nascimento7,8, J. Olivier18, W. Palacios21 1. University of Leeds, UK. 2. University of Oxford, U.K. 3. Museo Noel Kempff Mercado, Santa Cruz, Bolivia. 4. Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis MO, USA. 5. Instituto National de PesquisasAmazônicas, Manaus, Brazil. 6. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, Washington DC, USA. 7. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama. 8. Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Program, Manaus, Brazil. 9. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK. 10. Herbario Vargas, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru. 11. Proyecto Flora del Perú, JardinBotanico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Perú. 12. CIFOR, Tapajos, Brazil. 13. EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental, Belém, Brazil. 14. Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham NC, USA. 15. New York Botanical Garden, Bronx NY, USA. 16. MuseuParaense Emilio Goeldi, Belem, Brazil. 17. Winrock International, Arlington VA, USA. 18. Laboratoire Evolution et DiversitéBiologique, CNRS/UPS Toulouse, France. 19. Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC, USA. 20. Department of Anthropology, New York University NY, USA. 21. FundacionJatunSacha, Quito, Ecuador. 22. Alexander von Humboldt Biological Research Institute, Bogotá, Colombia. 23. Departamento de Ecología, Universidade de Brasilia, Brazil. 24. INDEFOR, Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela. 25. International Plant Genetic Resources Institute, Rome, Italy. 26. Equipo de Gestión Ambiental, Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. ISA., Medellín, Colombia 27. Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.

26. CO2 vertical profiles over Amazon supported by GEOCARBON 2 sites currently funded by GEOCARBON: - Tabatinga, Amazonas state - Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso state

27. Recent results for Amazonia • Amazonian intact forests were/are a carbon sink • This sink is vulnerable to climate change! • Fires, high temperature and drought can neutralize it! GEO IX PLENARY – European Commission side event. Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 21-23 November

28. Component 5 Integrated CO2 budgets and uncertainties GEOCARBON + Global carbon budget presented at UNFCCC COP 18, Doha 2012 Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012 Global Carbon Project 2012

29. Carbon Budget Contributors 35 people from 10 countries Corinne Le Quéré(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom) Glen Peters (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway) Robbie Andrew (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway) Bob Andres (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States) Tom Boden(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States) Thomas Conway (National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Colorado, United States) Skee Houghton (Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), United States) Jo House (Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, United Kingdom) Gregg Marland (Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, North Carolina, United States) Guido van der Werf (VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands) Anders Ahlström (Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden) Laurent Bopp (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France) Pep Canadell(Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia) Philippe Ciais(Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France) Scott Doney(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), United States) C. Enright (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom) Pierre Friedlingstein(University of Exeter, United Kingdom) Chris Huntingford (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom) Atul Jain (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, United States) Charlotte Jourdain(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom) Etsushi Kato (Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan) Ralph Keeling (University of California - San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, California, United States) Kees Klein Goldewijk(Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands) Samuel Levis (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado, United States) Peter Levy (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), United Kingdom) Mark Lomas (Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD), Sheffield University, United Kingdom) Ben Poulter (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France) Mike Raupach(Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia) Jörg Schwinger (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway) Stephen Sitch(University of Exeter, United Kingdom) Benjamin Stocker (Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) Nicolas Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France) Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom) Soenke Zaehle (Max-Planck-InstitutfürBiogeochemie, Jena, Germany) Ning Zeng (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, United States) www.globalcarbonproject.org Now also GEOCARBON!

30. Observed Emissions and Emission Scenarios The current emissions’ trend is along the worse IPCC scenario! SA90 (1990-1992, not shown), IS92 (1992-2000), SRES (2000-2012), RCPs (2012+) Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

31. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions(2002-2011 average) Not all the emissions remain into the atmosphere: ocean & land sinks “discount” 8.3±0.4 PgC/yr 4.3±0.1 PgC/yr 46% 2.6±0.8 PgC/yr 28% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components + 1.0±0.5 PgC/yr >50% discount! 26% 2.5±0.5 PgC/yr

32. Changes in the GlobalC-Budget over Time Averaged sinks over 50 years: 44% atmosphere, 28% land, 29% ocean The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions It is uncertain how efficient the sinks will be in the future! Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012 We cannot rely forever on this 50% discount!

33. GEO-Carbon-Office (GCO) • Both for GEOCARBON and CL-02 • Interface with EC • Liaise with GEO Secretariat and GFOI • Strengthen the effectiveness of the global carbon community participation in GEO • Enhance the communication flow among the different communities • Support the Carbon Community of Practice • Mediate between science and policy • Outreach Component 8 Dissemination and exploitation of the results. Turn the results into policy relevant information. Liaise with relevant partners and decision makers. COORDINATION WITH GFOI UNDER DEVELOPMENT Currently: sustained and coordinated by the GEOCARBON Project, with a global perspective (not Europe only!) Ambition: engage a wider community and become an international coordinating office sustained by an international organization or partnership, after the project’s end (from 2015 onwards).

34. GEO Conference “Towards a global Carbon Observing and Analysis System: Progresses and Challenges” • Geneva, 1-2 October 2013 • Tropical C-budget and hotspots • Observations from space • In situ observations • Global CH4 cycle • Model data fusion at global and regional scale • Carbon and policy Please circulate the announcement • GEO CL-02 "Global Carbon Observation and Analysis" Task meeting • Geneva, 3-4 October 2013 • To revamp the work of the CL-02 task • Consolidate and enlarge the GEO community contributing to the “carbon” task • Improve the global coordination • Ensure commitment • Plan the next activities • Establish the new GEO Carbon Community of Practice Short declaration / list of recommendations for the Ministerial Summit?

35. THANKS! GEO CARBON antonio.bombelli@cmcc.it www.cmcc.it