Visualizing Uncertainty in High Time-Stress Christopher D. Wickens Head, Human Factors Division University of Illinois, Institute of Aviation. Terms Model of Influences Challenge and Results of Empirical Research Human Factors Guidelines for Best Display Practices.
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Christopher D. Wickens
Head, Human Factors Division
University of Illinois, Institute of Aviation
Spatial-temporal resolution (imprecision)
People relatively poor at utilizing probablistic information. Value dominates risk decisions.
Source of Uncertainty
Future Pilot Control Actions
Predicting the future
The choice may be wrong
Make credible the actuarial experience of probabilities.
If low probability events are part of the display rendering, they must be experienced by the participant.
Rendering of p=.01 event, participant must (a) experience the event, (b) experience it 1 out of 100, or (better) 2 out of 200.
Few studies exist that have:
* compared uncertainty representation vs. none.
* compared different formats of uncertainty representation
* collected objective performance data with actuarial experience
1. Levels of resolution: (Danger, Uncertain, Safe)
(2) D-S (3) D-U-C (5) D- DU U US S
More (than 2) levels help. (St. Johns and Mannes, Schinzer et al). Philosophy of “likelihood alarm”. (Sorkin & Woods). Aviation collision warnings. Why? More of the errors in a higher resolution system are not as “bad”. (This fosters greater trust in the system):
How many levels needed? (Schinzer). > 4 may be all.
How to render?
D U S
(courtesy of Jason Telner & Paul Milgram, University of Toronto)
Probability information plotted
as a density or a contour graph
TTC information plotted
as contour or density graph
Iso- TTC Plot
(TTC = Time-to-Conflict)
(Stone et al, Kirschenbaum & Aruda, Andre & Cutler, Kirlik & Nunes)
but not always (Schinzer et al)
Stone et al. Displays
Schinzer et al: Investment Decisions Displays
Expected case? Worst case?
.05 M .95
.05 M .95
Just as good?
2. Visually link uncertainty representation to uncertain element (Proximity compatibility principle): Why visual display is good.
3. Express uncertainty in the “language of action” for:
Spatial occupancy contours time windows
4. Need for standardization of contour level (95%?)
Takeoff (Unfliable airplane)
Overshoot runway end
More research needed (Echoes calls by others)
Analyze consequences of human knowing uncertainty
Displaying Information will induce specific behavior in high time-stress
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