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World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035. William J Cosgrove & Gilberto Gallopin Chicago 17 July 2009. Overview. World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025 Why new scenarios? Proposed new scenarios Questions, suggestions and expressions of interest in participating.

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world water scenarios 2012 2035

World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035

William J Cosgrove & Gilberto Gallopin

Chicago 17 July 2009

overview
Overview
  • World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025
  • Why new scenarios?
  • Proposed new scenarios
  • Questions, suggestions and expressions
  • of interest in participating
slide4

How?

  • Scenario Development Panel
  • Drivers: demographics; economic; technological; social; governance; environmental
  • Focus Groups on Drivers - energy
  • - information and communications
  • - biotechnology
  • - institutions, society and economy
  • Models
core elements in the vision approach
core elements in the Vision approach
  • participatory approach with extensive consultation: open and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to contribute to the Vision and make it their own.
  • “out-of-the-box” thinking: emphasis on getting people to think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of reference – stimulated through qualitative global scenarios to kick off consultations.
  • global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination: scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to provide a coherent basis for the global vision.
  • Emphasis oncommunication: information available not just for the project team but for many outside it through as many channels as possible.
resulting in
Resulting in
  • Increasing the consistency and “feasibility check” on the scenarios
  • Providing higher credibility through the intersection of different independent approaches
  • Providing quantitative estimates of some thresholds and requirements
anatomy of scenarios

Current situation

  • Critical dimensions
  • Driving forces
  • Strategic invariants (predetermined elements)
  • Critical uncertainties
  • Plots (logics of the scenarios)
  • Image of the future
Anatomy of scenarios
slide9

Outcomes:

  • Scenarios:
        • Business-as-Usual
        • Technology, Economics and Private Sector
        • Values and Lifestyles
  • World Water Vision (backcast)
why new scenarios real time delphi exercise november 2007
Why new scenarios?Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007
  • Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be
  • useful in WWDR3.
  • Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios
  • seems warranted.
  • New scenarios should not be started from scratch but
  • include new drivers that have now become apparent.
  • Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be
  • based on new information available.
  • A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing
  • these new scenarios, but
  • Scientific and empirical observations should be used as
  • the starting point.
slide11

Drivers in WWDR3:

  • Demographic, economic and social
  • Technological
  • Policies, laws and finance
  • Climate change
  • Possible futures
survey of 200 decision makers may 2009
Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009

Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding

resources required & avoiding duplication

proposed new scenarios
Proposed new scenarios

Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by

narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined,

for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization,

with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models.

Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the

qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging

experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise

and encouraging communication and dialogue between

these different actors.

global scenarios
Global Scenarios
  • In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios,
  • followed by the development of qualitative
  • “storylines” by a group of stakeholders and experts:
  • understandable and transparent basis for understanding scenario assumptions
  • attractive method for communicating the substance of the scenarios to non-technical people
  • distill the combined views of the stakeholders and experts
global scenarios16
Global Scenarios

In parallel, modelers produce quantitative

scenarios which provide numerical data,

and make possible a consistency check

of the storylines.

scenarios at national and sub national scales
Scenarios at national and sub-national scales

Scenario construction process and scenario findings more

directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers.

Global scenarios give general direction and provide

perspective and a set of functional constraints for the

national and sub-national scenarios.

More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to

exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations

involved in water issues.

slide18

Products:

  • set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and
  • their documentation;
  • document discussing the main strategic
  • implications of the global scenarios, the
  • identified critical nodes for action, and the
  • insights obtained from the scenario exercise;
  • set of local water scenarios;
  • tool-box for local scenario-building; and
  • improvement in the scenario-building capacity of
  • local groups.
slide19

Your questions?

Suggestions re the approach?

Are you interested in participating

- at the global level?

- at the local level?