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DHP Re-Calibration. Moving to Uo -based Calibration (away from Thermostat-based Calibration) Regional Technical Forum May 13, 2014. Phase I Adjustment to SEEM Output to Match Bills (for Houses with “well-known” Heating Energy Use). Background: DHP Calibration.

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DHP Re-Calibration

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    1. DHP Re-Calibration Moving to Uo-based Calibration (away from Thermostat-based Calibration) Regional Technical Forum May 13, 2014

    2. Phase IAdjustment to SEEM Output to Match Bills(for Houses with “well-known” Heating Energy Use)

    3. Background: DHP Calibration • Existing DHP Phase I Calibration, approved in July 2013, is based on the old Thermostat Setting calibration method:

    4. Goal: Determine Uo-based Phase I Calibration Factors for DHPs

    5. Methodology • Use DHP Metering Study data (n=95 pre billing, post metering) to interpolate between the Zonal/eFAF and HP/gFAF calibration factors. • See the following for more details: • “DHPphaseIcalibrationMemo” document • “DHP_SEEM_calibration_PhaseI” workbook • Two equally legitimate methods of interpolating, both give slightly different answers • Average of Interpolations (=0.60) • Interpolation of Averages (=0.55)

    6. Comparison “Interpolation of Averages”, or =0.55, was selected since it results in overall savings closer to the original for the DHP UES measures.

    7. Proposed Calibration Factors(DHP in Green)

    8. Decision • “I _____ move that the RTF adopt the revised Uo-based Phase I calibration adjustment factors for DHP’s.”

    9. Phase IIAdjustment to Electric Energy Use for Non-electric Fuel usage, Unoccupied Houses, and houses with otherwise misbehaved bills

    10. Background • Phase II Adjustments: • For program-like houses (permanent electric heat, no non-electric FAF or boiler), the adjustments address: • Non-utility heating sources, • Program-permitted gas heat sources (e.g., gas fireplaces), and • Other SEEM Phase I calibration filters • See September 2013 RTF meeting presentation for more details Today’s Goal: Determine values for DHP.

    11. Available Data Source: DHP Pilot Study, R2≥0.45 Source: RBSA SF, Zonal Electric Source: SEEM runs, Phase I applied

    12. Two UES Analysis Methods • The next two slides show the two methods in detail. • The difference between the two methods (in words): • S1 uses the ratio of savings from the average house to non-supplemental fuel houses. • S2 uses the ratio of energy use from the average house to non-supplemental fuel houses. • Q: Which one’s better, correct? • Theyseem to offer the same correctness. • S2 aligns better with our guidelines: Determines baseline and efficient case consumptions separately. • The S2 Method will allow us to generate Phase II calibration factors for DHP’s (The S1 Method will not). • The S2 Method aligns with our need to assign a separate “wood heat” adjustment factor to DHP’s. • But they give different answers (especially in HZ3): • Whether we should revisit the DHP UES is out of scope for this presentation.

    13. Background: DHP UES Savings Methodology

    14. Background: DHP UES Alternative Methodology

    15. Proposed Methodology We continue to have no fully satisfying solution. Supplemental fuels use has been a difficult thing to pin down; it still requires a fair amount of judgment for DHP’s.

    16. Step 1 – Apply implied adjustment to DHP • Remember there’s a component of the adjustments that represents unoccupied houses and houses with otherwise misbehaved bills. • We’ll assume DHP houses, on average, have the same results as other heating systems (which are based on RBSA data).

    17. Step 2 – Re-state Known Adjustments • The DHP Pilot data and UES savings methodology does not make adjustments for unoccupied houses or houses with misbehaved bills • We’ll re-calculate the “eFAF, Zonal, HP, or Gas FAF” electric heating adjustments without the implied adjustment: • This is R2.Z from the alternative method above (S2 method), but using RBSA specific data, rather than DHP Pilot data.

    18. Step 3 – Find R2.D(RBSA) by using S2 from the DHP UES alternate analysis. Solve for R2.D(RBSA)

    19. Step 4 – Work backward to fill in the blanks. Negative value doesn’t make sense, we’ll need to fix that.

    20. Step 5 – Re-assign negative value in HZ3. Again, not a completely satisfying solution, but it doesn’t affect savings too much: S2 for HZ3 changes from 970 kWh/yr to 1,043 kWh/yr with this “tweak”.

    21. Decision • “I _____ move that the RTF adopt the Phase II calibration adjustment factors for DHP’s.”