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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products

Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products. Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li U.W. Madison James Turner Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ Jeff Prestemon USDA-FS, SO. Background. U.S. forests at risk Chestnut blight, early 1900s

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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products

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  1. Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li U.W. Madison James Turner Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ Jeff Prestemon USDA-FS, SO

  2. Background • U.S. forests at risk • Chestnut blight, early 1900s • Dutch Elm Disease, mid-1900s • Balsam and Hemlock Woolly Adelgids • Sudden Oak Death • Gypsy Moth • Spruce budworm • Oak wilt • U.S. is largest producer, consumer, importer • Globalization • GATT-WTO • NAFTA • FTAA • Growing trade => growing threat • Other countries face same issues

  3. Objectives • Losses incurred by producers and consumers due to timber supply reductions caused by invasive species • Effects of regulations (phytosanitary rules and import bans) on producer and consumer welfare

  4. Global Forest Products Model • Dynamic Competitive equilibrium • Demand • Supply • Trade • 14 forest products • 180 countries

  5. Raw material Intermediate product Final product Fuelwood Fuelwood Other roundwood Other industrial roundwood Industrial roundwood Sawnwood Plywood Particleboard Fiberboard Mechanical pulp Newsprint Chemical pulp Printing & writing paper Other fiber pulp Other paper & paperboard Waste paper GFPM Product Flow

  6. GFPM dynamics P T+ 1 P T π T T +1 Q T +1 T Q T

  7. Alternative Scenarios • Status quo projections, 2002 – 2012 • Ban on global trade of logs

  8. Status quo:World plywood consumption

  9. Status quo: Net Trade of Industrial Roundwood

  10. Status quo: U.S.A

  11. Status quo: World Prices

  12. Effects on industrial roundwood

  13. Effects on Sawn wood

  14. Effects on Wood Panels

  15. Effects on Wood Pulp

  16. Effects on Paper and Paperboard

  17. Effects on prices

  18. Future Work • Finish log export ban scenario analysis • Study effects of treatment costs on trade, production, and prices • Develop timber supply sub-model to simulate effects of invasive species

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