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Evidence on and lessons from short-term socio-economic impacts of HPAI

Evidence on and lessons from short-term socio-economic impacts of HPAI. Anni McLeod FAO

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Evidence on and lessons from short-term socio-economic impacts of HPAI

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  1. Evidence on and lessons from short-term socio-economic impacts of HPAI Anni McLeod FAO ECTAD Socio-economics and production team: Lise Albrechtsen, Jacques Conforti, John Curry, Nicoline de Haan, Frands Dolberg, Ellen Geerlings, Fallou Gueye, Emmanuelle Guerne-Bleich, Jim Hancock, Jan Hinrichs, Marina Maiero, Sabrina Mayoufi, Anni McLeod, Uswege Minga, Emanuele Moncada, Nancy Morgan, Ana Riviere-Cinnamond, Jonathan Rushton.

  2. Market shock Disease intelligence Culling and compensation Recovery Vaccination Needing more attention Topics covered

  3. Market shocks

  4. What do we know? Internationally 2004-5, 8% decline in global poultry trade. World prices rose and then fell. FMD in Brazil plus HPAI in Asia pushed up all meat prices.

  5. National market shock Hanoi and Ha Tay, Viet Nam (CIRAD). Consumers consider AI a food-related risk Immediate drop in demand >70%. 6.5% of consumers no longer consume poultry • Red River and Mekong Delta, Viet Nam. Sector 3, small traders lost market share Sector 2 was better able to adapt Tangerang District, Indonesia. 3 market shocks since January 2007. Sector 3 farmers in debt, unable to recover Egypt Market shock started before the outbreak in the country

  6. What has been successful, what has not? • International poultry market is recovering fast largely through private sector actions • There has been no way to prevent market shocks • Well designed communication efforts (e.g. Thailand and Turkey) seem to reduce impact Recommendations • Analyse successful communication and build on it • Work on safety nets for sector 3

  7. Disease intelligence

  8. What do we know? Finding disease fast and responding fast is the best way to minimise economic damage but...there are many reasons not to report disease Thai x-ray survey Helped to reduce culling “If you see birds going to market at lower weight than normal the farmer probably thinks the flock is sick” Indonesia PDS/PDR A way to find the extent of disease Not expected to be permanent

  9. What has been successful, what has not? • It’s possible to find and report disease with intense/participatory activity at field level • There are several models available, none has been fully evaluated • Many animal health information systems are not “joined up” Recommendations • Evaluate existing systems, estimate recurrent costs • Think “out of the box” about reporting • Predict where disease will be

  10. Culling and compensation

  11. What do we know? A well designed compensation scheme reduces livelihoods damage from stamping out but does not remove it. compensation doesn’t cover market shocks $$$ 2-20 per bird to cull and compensate “Women own birds, men get compensation” Culling causes distress to owners and compensation teams

  12. What has been successful, what has not? • Advance planning is essential • Payment customised by system is needed Recommendations • Establish a strong compensation plan • Find ways to share cost and risk • Focus on reducing culling

  13. Recovery

  14. Recommendations • Consider the recovery phase when making an outbreak contingency plan • how and when will people restock? • will they be able to make a living from poultry? • is the restocking phase an opportunity to make production and marketing safer?

  15. Vaccination

  16. What do we know? Ring vaccination can reduce culling costs Preventive vaccination as insurance – cost can be shared Cost effectiveness cost per needle in bird? 7-16c cost per bird protected? cost per bird at risk?

  17. What has been successful, what has not? • Reduction of outbreaks in Viet Nam, ?China • Private sector already pays for vaccination • Need vigilance over changes in strains • Little incentive to vaccinate broilers • Little interest for sector 4 owners to vaccinate Recommendations • Improve availability and user-friendliness of vaccine • Improve monitoring systems otherwise cost effectiveness goes down

  18. Needing more attention

  19. “Hidden” people: widows, disabled, refugees, migrants Genetic resources Gender Evaluating disease control packages Early warning signs Recovery “Informal” trade Planning with the private sector Sub-Saharan Africa

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