Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Drought

1. Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005 Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Drought Dr. Muhammad Akram KahlownChairman Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources

2. Resource Base (Water) Surface Water: 175 Bm3 Total Available Storage: 20 Bm3 Sedimentation in Storage: 0.2 Bm3 Canal Diversions: 130 Bm3 Groundwater Availability: 82 Bm3 Groundwater Withdrawal: 62 Bm3 Irrigated Area: 18 Mha Available for Additional Cultivation: 12 Mha

3. Water Availability and Demands (Bm3) In 2025 Shortfall up to 50% (PWP, 2000)

4. Drought Hit Areas in Pakistan

5. Droughts in Pakistan

6. Major Socio-Economic Activities in Drought Hit Areas • Livestock herds • Cultivation of Orchards • Growing of Agricultural Crops

7. Livestock Production in Balochistan

8. Cropped Area Reduction in Balochistan Base Year: 1995-96

9. Crops Production Reduction in Balochistan Base Year: 1995-96

10. Orchards Yield Reduction in Balochistan Base Year: 1995-96

11. Impact on Cropped Area in Sindh Base Year: 1995-96

12. Impact on Crops Yield in Sindh Base Year: 1995-96

13. Economic Sector Drought Damages • Agricultural production ready to be harvested • Crops • Orchards • Vegetables • Losses in animal stock • Livestock • Poultry • Losses to rangelands • Reduced yields in future crops • Not planting of future crops • Losses to water sources • Loss of employment in various sectors (agriculture, industrial and tourism)

14. Social Sector Drought Damages • Food cost and temporary shelter for affectees during migration • Destruction and repair costs of housing appliances • Losses of “Backyard economy” assets: • Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) • Small species cattle • Vegetable gardens • Informally raised crops • Repair of damaged housing, schooling and health infrastructure • Rehabilitation costs of communication and water supply systems

15. Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought • Identify organizations and personnel active in the affected area • Identify the priority zones through • Preliminary reports • Meteorological data • Remote sensing or aerial photography • Interviews of persons working in the areas • Determine the areas to be assessed Continued …………..

16. Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought • Conduct the drought assessment through: • An over flight of the project area • Ground surveys to collect data on extent of drought and pattern of damages • Series of interviews of the affectees, relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc. Continued …………..

17. Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought • Conduct random sampling of health and nutritional status including: • Mortality • Morbidity • Pregnant and lactating women • Children under five • Small farmers • Families of herdsmen • Low income village dwellers • Conduct post-field assessment interviews

18. Strategies to Reduce Drought Risk • Development of national drought policy • Establishment of national climate monitoring system • Post drought audits of response efforts • Establishment of regional drought forums • Development of national drought mitigation plans

19. Drought Management in Pakistan • Monitoring activities • Impact assessment efforts • Mitigation measures • R&D endeavors

20. Agencies Involved in Drought Monitoring • Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) • Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) • Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs) • District governments

21. Role of PMD in Drought Monitoring • Establishment of a drought and environmental monitoring center (DEMC): Four provincial meteorological centers • Exploration of drought characteristics like intensity, magnitude and extent (spatial and temporal) • Issuance of drought forecasts and warnings to various user agencies • Although forecasting accuracy is satisfactory, warning system is weak and underdeveloped • The information does not reach the people in rural areas who are likely to be affected by drought

22. Role of WAPDA in Drought Monitoring • Collection & analyses of data on the following parameters to determine the impacts of climatic changes: • Rivers flows • Storage reservoirs levels • Groundwater levels • Dissemination of information to concerned federal/provincial agencies

23. Role of PIDAs in Drought Monitoring • Monitoring of canal diversions and distributing water within the canal network • Management of canal supplies through the following interventions: • Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basis • Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stages • Operate canals on revised rotations

24. Role of District Govts. In Drought Monitoring • Coordination of information with provincial administration on unusual changes in water availability provided by the following line departments: • Agriculture • Livestock • Public health • Revenue • Etc.

25. Limitation in Drought Monitoring No single institution is responsible for drought monitoring in the country

26. Drought Mitigation Measures in Pakistan • Promulgation of National Calamity Act, 1958 • Establishment of Federal Level Institutions • Emergency Relief Cell • Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Assistance (DERA) Unit • Establishment of Provincial Level Institutions • Relief Commission Office • Drought Crisis Control Centre • Drought Management Committees • DERA Unit

27. Hindrances in Drought Impact Assessment • Lack of reliable and authentic drought data • Absence of drought mitigation infrastructure and strategy • Lack of National Drought Policy • Complexity of drought assessment in various sectors • Non-existence of drought monitoring and assessment criteria

28. Recommendations • Formulation of a National Drought Policy/Plan • Implementation of the National Drought Policy • Initiation of R&D Program for drought management • Adoption of criteria for drought impact assessment: • vulnerability indicators • economic threshold • income of people

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