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GFE strengths and opportunities

GFE strengths and opportunities. Direct use of NWP models Systematic and algorithmic forecast process Temporal and spatial detail Can verify everything...and improve Efficiency gains Many new services. Basic Forecasting : …..No “best model for Today”.

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GFE strengths and opportunities

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  1. GFE strengths and opportunities • Direct use of NWP models • Systematic and algorithmic forecast process • Temporal and spatial detail • Can verify everything...and improve • Efficiency gains • Many new services

  2. Basic Forecasting : …..No “best model for Today”

  3. 48 hour max T forecasts & obs for Black Saturday How good is it? : LAPS GOCF GFE MSAS

  4. Basic Forecasting : Weather Elements... Temp PoP Precip Dewpoint Sky

  5. Tools and Processes Weather Type...

  6. Tools and Processes Haines Mix Ht Time of Change

  7. Tools and Processes Topography...

  8. Fire Weather Drought Index... Fire Danger...

  9. Fire Weather Time of Max Fire Danger... Time when thresholds are exceeded ….

  10. Products Fire weather Products...

  11. Building on GFE for FireWx : GFE as a delivery vehicle Ensemble Products...confidence, chance of exceeding thresholds, OCF.... wind, dewpoint, spatial and temporal downscaling, Cloud-layers, Indices and decision support… ROS (insolation, aspect, slope, better fuel..) / extreme event Develop product suite... collaboration

  12. Building on GFE for FireWx : GFE as a delivery vehicle • Fuel state from the 1950’s... • New Service Types... Nowcasts (sat data), Fire spread, Prescriptions, Scenarios, • Home for new algorithms / techniques… some exists… resources to build in.

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