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Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering and Operations Management for the 21 st Century. Ronald G. Askin, Professor and Director School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering Arizona State University Tempe, AZ 85287-8809 USA Ron.Askin@asu.edu. Overview.

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global challenges in industrial engineering and operations management for the 21 st century

Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering and Operations Management for the 21st Century

Ronald G. Askin, Professor and Director

School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering

Arizona State University

Tempe, AZ 85287-8809 USA

Ron.Askin@asu.edu

overview
Overview
  • On-going global manufacturing and economic activity trends
  • Where US manufacturing research and activity are headed
  • What are the implications/opportunities for IEs globally?
  • Where is IE’s future
shaping the world
Shaping the World

Environment and Nature

Politics and Cultures

Economics and Ingenuity

manufacturing trends and status today
Manufacturing Trends and Status Today
  • Global Production/Supply Networks
    • Transit costs and speeds changing slowly
    • Raw material availability, labor costs, markets vary globally
    • Information access is level; education becoming level
  • Transition from Mechanical/Physical to Electrical/Info Dominance
  • Green for Sustainability (Financial and Environmental)
  • Health applications are growing markets
  • Nanomaterials are solutions on the horizon

Manufacturing Creates Wealth!

Services fleetingly facilitate life but limit wage growth due to standardization, scalability and automation difficulty.

slide7

Intel Wafer Fab and Test/Assembly Facilities

It’s Markets, Resources and Economics

Region Revenue

Asia/Pacific 51%

Americas 20%

Europe 19%

Japan 10%

Fab

Assembly/Test

www.worldatlas.com

slide8

WTO: Peace and Prosperity Through Cooperative Commerce

WTO: A system of trading rules and forum for intergovernmental negotiation

153 Member Countries, 30 Accessions (in process) in 2009

why is us ie changing so much so fast
Why is US IE Changing So Much So Fast?
  • Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded
    • Level playing field through logistics and global connections (web)
    • American expectations for good wages, clean jobs/environment
    • High competition outsourcing, off-shoring
  • Opportunity of new science – bio, info, nano
  • Growth of service expenditures (health care, finance)
  • Dragged along by our engineering counterparts
but are we changing
But are We Changing?
  • Of Top 20 Ranked Schools
  • Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Operations Engineering
  • Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Management Science and Engineering Industrial Engineering and Management Science Operations Research and Information Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Systems Engineering
  • Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering Industrial Engineering
  • Operations Research/Industrial Engineering Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering
  • IIE Members vote Down Name Change in 2009
industrial engineering in the us past and present
Industrial Engineering in the US – Past and Present

1910

2010

New Markets Outside of Manufacturing

Logistics

Info Services

Entrepreneur

Healthcare

Homeland Security Finance

We’ve grown out but have we grown up?

the scientist engineer today
The Scientist/Engineer Today

The Doctor

The Civil Engineer

Realtime tracking

(Cameras, GPS)

CAT Scan

PET Scan

Embedded structural health monitoring/control

revolutionary change in technology
Revolutionary Change in Technology

Moore’s Law

Human

Genome Decoding

1990: $3B, 13 yrs

2009: $350k, 13 weeks

2015: $300, 13 min.

Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965

the ie today
The IE Today

http://www.strategosinc.com/value_stream_mapping1.htm

Subject to:

Methods have stagnated.

Remaining traditional Manufacturing opportunities in US are limited.

ies improve integrated systems
IEs Improve Integrated Systems

How must faster/better/cheaper can we define, model, and improve a system today than in 1979?

Today’s systems are complex and integrated. Why aren’t we flourishing most in complex environments?

Have we changed at the same rate as others over the past 30 years?

While the world became a ubiquitous information, global society, IE found better icons for flowcharts!

where could should we be
Where Could/Should We Be?
  • Virtual Reality Models of Systems – miniature Ron sits on the part and flows through the machine and plant
  • Virtual Reality Models of datasets with automated coloring, sizing for outliers
  • Automated Simulation/Optimization Models from Capital Asset files
  • Automated model decomposers, data cleaners and preprocessors
  • Full data history on shop and order status with real-time planning updates – customers manage their orders.

We’re too Cheap!

the prevailing business attitude
The Prevailing Business Attitude

Phil Knight, Founder of Nike

“There is no value in making things any more. The value is added by careful research, by innovation, and by marketing.”

Deputy Director, DARPA 7/19/2010

“To innovate we must make.”

world gross domestic product
World Gross Domestic Product

Data Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp

gdp growth rate current gdp 1970 gdp
GDP Growth Rate: Current GDP/1970 GDP

Asia Rising, Europe Falling

export dependence by region
Export Dependence by Region

Asia growing rapidly

import export growth rates
Import Export Growth Rates

Central America Gaining Net SurplusAsia Expanding Activity Rapidly

observations
Observations
  • US has room to consume more of the world’s goods
  • US spends most on services, not products
  • Central America and Europe highly dependent on trade
  • US, Japan and South America too insular?
  • Japan continuing to wane
  • Growth linked to global trade, particularly for small economies
global manufacturing growth
Global Manufacturing Growth

Europe, No. America losing ground;

Asia gaining

manufacturing importance by region
Manufacturing Importance by Region

Asia Gaining

No./So. America , Europe losing ground

World relatively constant

manufacturing production per capita
Manufacturing Production per Capita

Surprising relative growth consistency except Africa

population growth rates
Population Growth Rates

Despite problems, Africa is growing fastest

the rapidly changing landscape
The Rapidly Changing Landscape

Companies brace for end of cheap made-in-China era

By ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach, Ap Business Writer – Thu Jul 8, 12:57 pm ET

SHANGHAI – Factory workers demanding better wages and working conditions are hastening the eventual end of an era of cheap costs that helped make southern coastal China the world's factory floor. A series of strikes over the past two months have been a rude wakeup call for the many foreign companies that depend on China's low costs to compete overseas, from makers of Christmas trees to manufacturers of gadgets like the iPad. Where once low-tech factories and scant wages were welcomed in a China eager to escape isolation and poverty, workers are now demanding a bigger share of the profits. The government, meanwhile, is pushing foreign companies to make investments in areas it believes will create greater wealth for China, like high technology. shifting production to the inland areas …Massive investments in roads, railways and other infrastructure are reducing the isolation of the inland cities.

Maybe, but the growing market is still there!

us industry activity percent of gdp
US Industry Activity – Percent of GDP*

Where will these lines go from here?

* US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

us manufacturing future
US Manufacturing Future
  • Focus on design (shorter product life cycles, more customized demands as choices proliferate)
  • Focus on green manufacturing (sustainability)
  • Focus on low volume, high precision, high tech products
  • Focus on developing and using nanomaterial processes – atomic scale layered composites
  • Focus on renewable energy power sources
  • Focus on defense industry
  • High volume only when automated (low volume and product flexibility relative to labor at least for awhile longer)
world wide opportunities successful approaches business 101
World wide Opportunities –Successful Approaches (Business 101)
  • Identify competitive advantage (low cost of labor, primary materials)
  • Identify market needs and means
  • Ensure adequate infrastructure
  • Find investors – gov’t, banks, parent companies
  • Focus on a core
  • automotive parts assembly in Mexico first,
  • then build up to aerospace parts
  • Low Cost Assembly originally in Asia (Is Africa the future?)
  • Global Production  Global Wealth  Logistics Dominance
where do manufacturers build
Where Do Manufacturers Build?
  • Close to Raw Material and Parts Suppliers
  • Close to Customers
  • Adequate Labor Supply and Low Labor Rate
  • Adequate Transportation Network (Air, Rail, Shipping, Roads)
  • Favorable Community/Tax Situation
  • Access to Utilities (power, water)
  • Possible risk mitigation driven facility distribution
  • Limited cultural/political hurdles
us national academy of engineering grand challenges
US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges
  • Web page: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/
  • View video (6 min)

14 Grand Challenges for the 21st Century

  • Make solar energy economical – less than 1% today but large potential
  • Provide energy from fusion – develop scalable, envir. benign method
  • Provide access to clean water – affordable and available for all
  • Reverse engineer the brain – combining engineering and neuroscience
  • Advance personalized learning – speeds, styles, content for individual
  • Develop carbon sequestration methods – capture and store excess CO2
  • Restore and improve urban infrastructure – better design and materials for transportation, water, waste, power, etc. for livable cities
nae grand challenges cont
NAE Grand Challenges cont.
  • Engineer the tools of scientific discovery – blending of engr. & science to explain nature
  • Advance health informatics – better everyday care and preventing bio attacks/pandemics
  • Prevent nuclear terror – protect society from increasing risks and proliferation
  • Engineer better medicines – body sensing, personalized drugs, delivery methods
  • Enhance virtual reality – for training, treatment, communication, and entertainment
  • Manage the nitrogen cycle – better fertilization techniques and recapture/recycle
  • Secure cyberspace – protect essential infrastructure
iie fellows grand challenges for industrial engineering
IIE Fellows: Grand Challenges for Industrial Engineering

Fellows Report: http://www.iienet2.org/uploadedfiles/IIE/News/Grand%20Challenge%201.pdf

  • Reengineering Health Care Delivery
  • Creating a Technology Oriented Culture
  • Engineering a Sustainable Society
  • Developing Better Decision Tools
  • Mitigating and Responding to Disasters
  • Point of Use Manufacturing
  • Infrastructure
  • Food Security
1 reengineering healthcare delivery an integrated approach
1. Reengineering Healthcare Delivery: An Integrated Approach

The Problem

  • Demographics: Young and poor are fastest growing segment, U.S. and worldwide
  • Number of senior citizens growing fast (and baby boomers won’t go gently into the night)
  • Healthcare is largest U.S. industry
  • Health care inflation rate 3 times overall rate
  • Woeful under investment in info technology
  • Excessive waste
  • Medical info and treatment increasingly technology-enabled
1 reengineering health care
1. Reengineering Health Care

The IE Role

  • Individual care needed – risk analysis, modeling/mining genomic info, personalized treatment scripts, safety/quality in individual led treatment
  • System improvements needed – QC, logistics, info technology, provider collaboration hierarchically and vertically, financial system and models
  • Science advances needed – treatment protocols, data mining/bioimaging, human sensing
2 creating a technology oriented society
2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society

The Problem

  • Body of tech knowledge growing rapidly
  • System size and complexity growing rapidly
  • (U.S.) relatively wealthy – life is easy
  • Many of brightest youth pursue pursue law, business
  • U.S. youths perform poorly in math/science
2 creating a technology oriented society48
2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society
  • Get the word out about opportunities and need
  • Optimize available human resource
  • Jazz up what we do

The IE Role

3 engineering a sustainable society
3. Engineering a Sustainable Society
  • U.S. population will double this century
  • World population will more than double
  • Over 50% now live in urban areas
  • Wealth increases ecological footprint
  • Climate change will change geographic resource availability

The Problem

What’s Your Carbon Footprint?

3 sustainable society
3. Sustainable Society

The IE Role

  • Need sustainable transportation systems
  • Efficient/effective governmental services – judicial, social security, police/fire
  • Designing scalable urban environments
  • Designing efficient community structures connecting urban (production, consumption) to rural (raw materials)

Is there an optimal city size?

Can you live a healthy happy virtual life at home?

How to tradeoff privacy and security?

4 develop better decision making tools
4. Develop Better Decision Making Tools
  • Modeled entities are growing in size
  • Models are expensive to build, hard to sell
  • Models are limited in scope, life-span
  • Organizations have vertical and horizontal boundaries (multiple constituencies)

The Problem

4 better decision making tools
4. Better Decision Making Tools

The IE Role

  • Better, more fully deployed, and relevant sensors
  • Models to fuse, validate and evaluate data/information
  • Improved models of human behavior
  • Enrich “Rational” models with subjective behavior
  • Risk analysis and interaction models of tightly coupled massive technology-oriented systems and their failure modes/scenarios
  • Rapid modeling and computational tools
  • Scalable, maintainable, rapidly developable models
  • More understandable models/More valid models
  • Human embedded modeling paradigms and tools (immersion and visualization)
5 mitigating and responding to disaster
5. Mitigating and Responding to Disaster

The Problem

  • Natural and man-made disasters are happening more frequently
  • Societal expectation is for safer lives, quicker emergency care
  • Larger urban regions, tightly-coupled specialized lives, and climate change lead to more susceptible systems and larger scale impacts
5 mitigating disaster
5. Mitigating Disaster

The IE Role

  • Optimal deployment of detection technologies (natural and competitive games)
  • Optimization of emergency response resource positioning and deployment
  • Managing transition from search to rescue to recovery and care
  • Integrated communications, logistics, and decision making
  • Real-time decision making with various info levels (resilient planning and control)
  • Resilient system(s) design
  • Optimal deployment and use of sensing technology and risk assessment models
6 point of use manufacturing
6. Point of Use Manufacturing
  • Demand for Customized Products
  • Demand for Sustainable Manufacturing/Distribution

The Problem

6 point of use manufacturing56
6. Point of Use Manufacturing

The IE Role

  • Distributed (home) or neighborhood manufacturing
  • New process development for solid free form fabrication
  • Development of nano and mega technology for point of use production
  • Design of infrastructure for material delivery, user-driven design

“It’s Not Easy Being Green”

7 infrastructure construction
7. Infrastructure Construction

The Problem

  • Time to revolutionize infrastructure construction (progress has lagged)
  • Construction inefficient and quality variable
7 infrastructure construction58
7. Infrastructure Construction

The IE Role

  • Take advantage of advances in computing, robotics, materials, and management science to reduce cost, time, injuries, environmental impact
  • Design smarter structures
  • Determine optimal investments for infrastructure $
  • Allow maintainable, culturally appropriate, ergonomically safe construction methods and system designs
  • Why Can’t we manufacture structures in factories for field assembly with higher quality and productivity?
8 safe available affordable food water
8. Safe, Available, Affordable Food & Water

The Problem

  • Population growth, changing weather patterns, political strife, man-made biohazards, natural biohazards threaten worldwide
  • Current cultivation practices not sustainable and use non-renewable resources
  • Profits vs. Politics vs. Social Good
  • Standard procedures, testing and traceability needed across food supply chain
  • Procedures for local food production and security needed
8 safe available food and water
8. Safe, Available Food and Water

The IE Role

  • Develop traceable supply and distribution networks (RFID, imaging, procedures, etc.)
  • Design and deploy maintainable solutions
  • Perhaps assist in governmental planning for development
what constitutes ie
What Constitutes IE?

IE Today

IE Tomorrow

  • Manufacturing planning (process planning, tooling design/maintenance)
  • Production operations (planning, scheduling, quality assurance, material handling)
  • Engineering management (engineering economics, product services, facilities design/mgmt., distribution/logistics)
  • System modeling (information systems/flow, modeling and simulation)
  • Ergonomics/Human Factors
  • Additions?
  • Deletions?
conclusions
Conclusions
  • We are needed but we must Wander or Wither
  • We must Revolutionize on a Bigger, Broader, Faster Scale
  • We must integrate our strengths – humans, math models, computing, big picture/multiobjective comfort level, efficiency mindset
the big picture
The Big Picture

Opportunities Abound!

But We Must Broaden our Workspace!

slide65

Questions/Comments/Complaints?

Ron Askin

School of Computing, Informatics, and

Decision Systems Engineering

ron.askin@asu.edu

futurizing the bsie curriculum
Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum
  • Greater emphasis on global cultures
  • Learning to serve on multidisciplinary, multicultural, politically pressured teams
  • Must bring unique value to the team (Systems thinking, Project Management, Multiobjective Dec. Making, Dealing with Complexity & Uncertainty)
  • Dynamic, Nonlinear, Continuous Large-Scale Modeling (Not just Discrete Event Simulation and Desk Top LP)
  • Understanding Human Behavior and Preferences (Beyond HF)
  • Risk Management and Mitigation as an integral activity
  • Broader Science Knowledge (Biology, Ecology)
  • Sophisticated Information Technology Users (Sensor Capability & Network Design; Data  Information  Decision Systems)
  • Systems Modeling of Urban Environments, Infrastructure
  • Broader Mindset of Major Societal Impact and Socio-Technical Problem Solving (not just making widgets)

What’s Your Ten?