Download
1 / 18
220 likes | 464 Views
The UK economy in a global context Philip Shaw Chief Economist, Investec WMEF ‘Entrepreneurship, Innovation & Growth’ Conference 21 June 2013. Global economic trends…. Global growth: Actual & projections……. Forecasts. Annual GDP Growth. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013.
E N D
The UK economy in a global contextPhilip ShawChief Economist, InvestecWMEF ‘Entrepreneurship, Innovation & Growth’ Conference21 June 2013
Global growth: Actual & projections…… Forecasts Annual GDP Growth Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013
Shares of global growth have shifted Contributions to global growth (percentage points) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013
Key economies - GDP growth recent and forecast… Annual GDP growth Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013
A few points on global growth This is a super cycle – it is not the world ‘New Normal’
Sterling depreciation Trade weighted sterling -24% Source: Bank of England
Euro crisis hits EU17 growth outturns… Annual GDP growth Source: Datastream, Investec forecasts
UK trade export volumes weakened by Euro area crisis.. Export volumes (% change 3m yoy), trade balance (£bn) Source: ONS
Global GDP growth – weighted by UK trade shares Annual GDP growth Forecasts Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013, Bank of England, Investec calculations
UK export growth to selected countries Change between 2009 and 2012 (£ values) Source: ONS
Quarterly UK growth- contributions by sector Unwinding of Jubilee effect and Olympic boost Royal Wedding Diamond Jubilee Collapse of Lehman Brothers Source:
Various factors to watch for…. • New Euro area upturn?? • Is the eurozone financially more robust? • Are individual countries less systemic? (Probably!) • Attitudes to and UK relationship with the rest of ‘Europe’. • Referendum on the EU in the next parliament?? • New Bank of England Governor on 1 July. • More stimulus? QE? Interest rate guidance? • An upturn in the housing market? • Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme helped mortgage market. • Chancellor’s Help to Buy scheme to raise demand? • Government help to SME sector?
EU referendum opinion polls Voting to stay in the EU (net balances) Source: YouGov
Disclaimer This presentation and any attachments and related documents (including any accompanying e-mail) (together “this presentation”) is for general information only and is the property of Investec Bank plc (together with its affiliated entities, and its and their subsidiaries, "Investec"). It is of a confidential nature and all information enclosed herein should be treated accordingly. The making of this presentation should in no circumstances whatsoever be construed as an offer or solicitation to sell, buy or subscribe to any securities or any derivative instrument or any other rights pertaining thereto, nor implies the existence of a commitment or contract by or with Investec or any director, officer, representative, employee, adviser or agent of Investec (together its “Affiliates”) for any purpose. The information and opinions expressed in this presentation have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but this presentation does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all the information that you may need. There is no obligation on any kind on Investec to update this presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Investec as to, or in relation to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any information contained in this presentation and Investec (for itself and on behalf of its Affiliates) hereby expressly disclaims any and all responsibility or liability (other than in respect of a fraudulent misrepresentation) for the accuracy, reliability and completeness of such information. All projections, estimations, forecasts, budgets and the like in this presentation are illustrative exercises involving significant elements of judgement and analysis and using the assumptions described herein, which assumptions, judgements and analyses may or may not prove to be correct. The actual outcome may be materially affected by changes in e.g. economic and/or other circumstances. Therefore, in particular, but without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, no representation or warranty is given as to the achievability or reasonableness or any projection of the future, budgets, forecasts, management targets or estimates, prospects or returns. You should not do anything (including enter any transaction of any kind) or forebear to do anything on the basis of this presentation. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Before entering into any arrangement, commitment or transaction you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such a transaction. No information, representations or opinions set out or expressed in this presentation will form the basis of any contract. You will have been required to acknowledge in an engagement letter, or may be required to acknowledge in any eventual engagement letter, that you have not relied on or been induced to enter into engaging Investec by any representation or warranty, except as expressly provided in such engagement letter. Investec expressly reserves the right, without giving reasons therefore, at any time and in any respect, to amend or terminate discussions with you without prior notice and expressly disclaims any liability for any losses, costs or expenses incurred in connection with any process of engagement. The value of any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this presentation can fall as well as rise. Foreign currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivative instruments, can give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. This presentation does not have regard to the specific instrument objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this presentation. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instrument or investment strategies discussed in this presentation. Investec may, to the extent permitted by law, own or have a position in the securities or financial instruments (including derivative instruments or any other rights pertaining thereto) of any company or related company referred to herein, and may add to or dispose of any such position or may make a market or act as a principal in any transaction in such securities or financial instruments. Directors of Investec may also be directors of any of the companies mentioned in this presentation. Investec may from time to time provide or solicit investment banking, underwriting or other financial services to, for or from any company referred to herein. Investec (and its directors, officers or employees) may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or research or analysis on which they are based prior to the material being published. Investec may have issued reports or other presentations that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this presentation. Those reports and presentations reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Securities referred to in this document may not be eligible for sale in those jurisdictions where Investec is not authorised or permitted by local law to do so. In particular, Investec does not allow the redistribution of this presentation to non-professional investors and cannot be held responsible in any way for third parties who effect such redistribution. The securities or financial instruments described herein may not have been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, and may not be offered or sold in the United States of America or to US persons unless they have been registered under such Act, or except in compliance with an exemption from the registration requirements or such Act. US entities that are interested in trading securities listed in this presentation should contact a US registered broker dealer. Investec Securities (US) LLC accepts responsibility for the issuance of this presentation when distributed in the United States to US persons who meet the definition of a US major institutional investor. This presentation is not intended for use by, or distribution to, US corporations that do not meet the definition of a major US institutional investor in the United States or for use by any citizen or resident of the United States. This presentation is not intended for use by, or distribution to, US corporations that do not meet the definition of a major US institutional investor in the United States or for use by any citizen or resident of the United States. This presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Investec Bank plc.
