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Effective State Awareness Information is Enabling for System Prognosis. Mark M. Derriso Advanced Structures Branch Air Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory. Workshop on Prognosis of Aircraft and Space Devices, Components, and Systems February 19-20, 2008 – Cincinnati, OH.

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effective state awareness information is enabling for system prognosis

Effective State Awareness Information isEnabling for System Prognosis

Mark M. Derriso

Advanced Structures Branch

Air Vehicles Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

Workshop on Prognosis of Aircraft and Space

Devices, Components, and Systems

February 19-20, 2008 – Cincinnati, OH

overview
Overview

Workshop Topics:

  • “…In the future, the USAF would like to develop state awareness monitoring capabilities that could enable accurate prediction of the remaining service life and future performance capability of critical components as well as be used to take specific corrective actions to assure mission completion and minimize operating cost and risk.”

This is Integrated Systems Health Management!

slide3

Determine Ability to Perform Mission

Determine Ability to Perform Mission

Assess Damage

Assess Damage

Detect Damage

Detect Damage

critical components
Critical Components

Damage

Data Analysis

Sub-systems

Measurands

Multiple 0.02 inch

Cracks in

fuselage

HM Data

Structural Health Management

Flight Control

Actuator

Frozen at 20 degrees

HM Data

Controls Health Management

Bearing Spalling

HM Data

Engine Health Management

LRU is Malfunctioning

HM Data

Electronics Health Management

system performance

CL max

T max

Altitude

q max

Mach

System Performance

System Performance Bounds

Multiple 0.02 inch

Cracks in

fuselage

Vehicle-Level Health Status

Data Analysis

Flight Control

Actuator

Frozen at 20 degrees

Bearing Spalling

LRU is Malfunctioning

airframe design
Airframe Design

(Device, Component, or System)

STRUCTURE

MATERIAL

Materials Processing

Manufacturing

Loads, Boundary Conditions, Operational Environment

Materials Properties

Uncertainty_Total = U_material + U_manufacturing + U_operational

UNCERTAINTY

associated with each of these areas that propagates through to the system level

design for uncertainty
Design for Uncertainty
  • Damage-tolerant design
    • Damage-tolerant is the property that enables a system to continue operating properly in the event of the failure of (or one or more faults within) some of its components. If its operating quality decreases at all, the decrease is proportional to the severity of the failure
  • Safe-life design
    • The Safe-life design technique is employed in critical systems which are either very difficult to repair or may cause severe damage to life and property. These systems are designed to work for years without requirement of any repairs.

F-4

F-16

failure mode effects criticality analysis fmeca
Failure Mode, Effects, & Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
  • FMECA
    • The objective of FMECA is to identify the components of products and systems most likely to cause failure, so that these potential failures can then be designed out.
    • FMECA allows the identification early in the product development process of potential problems or safety hazards which are inherent in a product design.
v v of airframe design

Closure Spar

F-15 Wing

Rear Spar

Main Spar

Front Spar

Conduit Hole

(hot spot)

V&V of Airframe Design

Structural Design

Problem Areas Identified

Airframe Prognosis: No Failures Throughout Design Life

Full- Scale Fatigue Testing

Inspection Schedule Constructed

airframe prognosis
Airframe Prognosis
  • However, requirements changes
    • Vehicles asked to perform different missions
    • Vehicles modified to fulfill new purposes
    • Vehicles asked to serve past original design life
  • What is the prognosis then?
  • Vehicle prognosis based on airframe prognosis
operational uncertainty
Operational Uncertainty
  • External Loading
    • maneuvers, gusts, taxi-loads
  • Internal Loading
    • bending, torsion, shear
  • Environmental Conditions
    • temperature, humidity

All are Factors the Effects Fatigue Life

state awareness
State Awareness
  • State awareness refers to knowledge regarding the current condition or capability
  • For airframe subsystems, state awareness is from the diagnostic portions of the structural health monitoring (SHM) system which detect, localize and assess any damage
  • State awareness allows subsystem prognosis which enables overall system prognosis
definition of shm
Definition of SHM
  • SHM refers to automated methods for determining adverse changes in the integrity of mechanical systems
  • SHM system capability is typically broken into the following levels of increasing difficulty:
    • damage detection
    • damage localization
    • damage assessment
    • life prediction

diagnosis

prognosis

slide15

Damage detection sensor

Ultrasonic wave propagation model

Requirements and knowledge of structural behavior and loads

Sensing technology and sensing system design

+

SHM System Design

Maintenance Benefit

SHM Development Framework

state awareness architecture
State Awareness Architecture

Based on Col Boyd’s OODA Loop

Predictions

(physics-based models, trending)

The Real World

Experience

&

Knowledge

Reasoning

Process

Data Analysis

Measurands

Loads, damage, etc..

Current State Information

the ishm goal
The ISHM Goal

“I don't care about what anything was DESIGNED to do, I care about what it CAN do”.