Early warning systems in disaster-risk reduction

1. Early warning systems in disaster-risk reduction Rohan Samarajiva & Nuwan Waidyanatha IDRC-CIDA workshop 12 July 2007, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

2. Agenda • Disaster risk reduction: what must be done • The LIRNEasia-Sarvodaya community-based approach to early warning • Pilot project research design • Different communication technologies • ERP [Emergency Response Planning] training v no training • Organized villages vs. less organized villages • Findings • Efficacy of Hazard Info Hub at SCMDC • Reliability of technologies • Reliability of systems • Training • Organizational development • Women

3. Sri Lanka on December 26th, 2004 One in 500 died in Sri Lanka without one minute of official warning Mediated interpersonal Physical world where hazards occur Symbolic world where action originates With a few insignificant exceptions, a world without ICTs

4. How ICTs should be deployed Physical world where hazards occur Warnings Mediated interpersonal Mass media Symbolic world where action originates Warnings More time to run; more lives saved

5. Who should act? • Early warning is a classic public good • Government must supply • Early warning is based on incomplete, probabilistic information and judgment • Government must take the responsibility • 75% of tsunami warnings in the Pacific are false; false warnings can be dangerous • Community preparedness (e.g., “tsunami ready” designations in the US) is vital • But if government appears unready to act . . . • Second-best options must be explored

6. Media Citizens National early warning center First responders Early warning chain (standard form)

7. National early warning center National early warning center Villagers Villagers ERP1 ERP1 ICT Guardians ICT Guardians ERP2 ERP2 SCDMC SCDMC ERP3 ERP3 ERP4 ERP4 Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project) From domestic & international sources

8. Pilot project design, 32 villages AREA: Addressable Radio for Emergency Alerts, Class B configuration of WorldSpace System MoP: Java enabled Mobile Phone, Dialog-Microimage innovation MiDews application RAD: Remote Alarm Device, Dialog-University-of-Moratuwa Innovation FxP: CDMA Wireless Fixed Phones with 1xRTT functions, Sri Lanka Telecom VSAT: Very Small Aperture Terminals coupled with Internet Public Alerting System Innovative-Tech & Solana Networks

9. Research questions • What technology is best for reaching the community? • What emergency response plans are best for saving lives of villagers? • How important is training? • How significant is the level of organization in the village? • How does the intervention affect women? • Will the ICTs be integrated into everyday life?

10. Remote Alarm Device GSM Mobile Phone CDMA Fixed Phone Addressable Radios for Emergency Alerts Very Small Aperture Terminals ICTs used in reaching communities

11. Reliability of technologies & systems Reliability is the difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to issue the CAP message and the time the message is received by the ICT Guardian. Reliability is the difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to receive message and the time the message is received by the Community.

12. National early warning center Villagers ERP1 ICT Guardians ERP2 SCDMC ERP3 ERP4 Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project) HIH From domestic & international sources

13. Average Variance HIH Monitor Message Relay Process 0.7725 0.0609 Evaluation of Hazard Info Hub (HIH) actions Expected value = 95% Download was quick because the simulation was staged within a defined three-hour time period. Acknowledgement was rare, possibly because they knew it was a drill. Event of Interest step was time consuming (2-page form) and needs improvement. Approval was instantaneous because the SCDMC Director was on premises during drills. Issue of alert took time because Each ICT required its own interface to issue the alert.

14. What is being measured . . . • difference between the time it takesHIH Monitor to issue the CAP messageand the time the message is received by theICT Guardian

15. Reliability of technology connecting HIH to ICT Guardians (inner circle) Coupled ICTs performed better than individual ICTs with the AREA + FXP combination being most reliable. Of the stand alone devices AREA is the most reliable with 13 of 16 working; The community had difficulty in installing and maintaining the MiDews Java applet on their MOPs and 7 of 10 participating MOPs failed; RADs were not tested as stand alone devices. FXP and MOP failed in North-East due to services being deactivated due to war.

16. National early warning center Villagers ERP1 ICT Guardians ERP2 SCDMC ERP3 ERP4 Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project) From domestic & international sources

17. What is being measured. . . • difference between the time it takesHIH Monitor to receive messageand the time the message is received by theCommunity

18. Reliability of systems (outer circle) AREA alone is unidirectional. Stand-alone AREA, RAD, and VSAT score low because alerts received in English only; all other ICT configurations accommodate three languages. Using a combination of FXP or MOP coupled with one-way Satellite communication device AREA is most effective because it • Provides larger geographic coverage with Satellite covering GSM and CDMA shadow areas • Increases bi-directional capabilities of communities to report local events to the Hub • Language diversity reduces ambiguity in messages

19. Effects of training of ICT Guardians & ERP Coordinators All 28 ICT Guardians received training. Only 16 of 32 Community ERP Coordinators received ERP Training. ICT Guardians were coached during live-exercises; random events over longer period would show different results. ERP Coordinators were also coached therefore results are not accurate. Still could not reach the required level.

20. Effect of organizational level of villages Organizational capacity is unimportant in the adoption of existing technologies such as Mobile and Fixed Phones. This is also evident from the Control Villages, which used their own Mobile Phones and Fixed Phones. Organizational capacity is important when adopting new technologies such as AREA. Unfortunately RAD was not tested in less organized villages. It is easier to organize disaster preparedness activities in organized villages.

21. 72% of adult participants were female because the simulations were conducted between 0900 and 1200hrs when most men were out of the home. The women showed enthusiasm and willingness to participate in disaster management activities. High participation of children occurred because the mothers brought their children along as they could not be left at home alone.

22. Integration of ICTs into everyday life • Expected to get data from • Diaries that had been provided • From use records • Both failed because • Dairies were not maintained • Use was very low • In some cases, District Sarvodaya Offices has reclaimed the phones for use in urgent IDP activities • Appeared that people thought we did not want them to use the ICTs for other purposes and did not volunteer information such as listening to BBC on AREA sets

23. Conclusions • Critically important to get SCDMC running as a 24/7 operation and to have disaster risk-reduction embedded as a central element of the worldview of all at Sarvodaya • Need to integrate management of all disaster projects • Think beyond project horizon (has already started through strategic planning process) • Robust early warning for community-based approach (as opposed to direct-to-citizen approach) requires • Bidirectionality of media, for local reporting and acknowledgement  No stand-alone AREA sets • CAP compliance and ability to send long messages in multiple languages  AREA sets in combination with other media • Mobile has potential, after software problems solved, but script limitations make it a distinct also-ran

24. Conclusions • A community-based approach requires • Training, both for ICT Guardians and for ERP Coordinators • Higher organizational levels • No conclusive evidence, but training through periodic simulations may be more effective than conventional training • No conclusive evidence, but integration into everyday activities may not be very important in the case of AREA+ • No conclusive evidence, but women are unlikely to be marginalized from community-based approaches in Sri Lanka

25. Project-specific conclusions • Pilot projects on truly novel problems require imagination and flexibility • Example: change from strict adherence to “no-training” condition in the face of demands from villages • Substitution of ham radios by other technologies • Those closest to the action know best • Project Director and IDRC Task Managers gave the main players the freedom to run the project