CGE Training materials - Mitigation Assessment Module A

1. CGE Training materials - Mitigation AssessmentModule A Mitigating Climate Change

2. Glossary • AI: Annex One • CDM: Clean Development Mechanism • CMP: Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol • COP: Conference of Parties • IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • JI: Joint Implementation • LCDS: Low Carbon Development Strategies • LCGCS: Low Carbon Growth Country Studies • LEDS: Low Emission Development Strategies • MRV: Measurement, Reporting and. Verification • NAI: Non Annex One • NAMA: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (unilateral, supported or credited) • NAPA: National Adaptation Programmes of Action • NC: National Communication • NCSP: National Communications Support Programme • NIS: National Inventory System • PAMs: Policies and Measures • QA/QC: Quality Assurance and Quality Control • QUELRO: Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Obligations • REDD/REDD+: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation/plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhanced forest carbon stocks. • SBSTA: Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice • TAP: Technology Action Plan • TNA: Technology Needs Assessment • UNFCCC: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

3. Module Objectives and Expectations • Objective: Provide participants with an introduction to key issues related to climate change mitigation including: • The current state of climate change science • Key sources, sinks, and sectors of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions • Mitigation actions: their potential costs and benefits, and their relationship with the broader issues of sustainability and development. • Expectations: Participants will have a broad but sound understanding of key issues related to climate change, motivating participants on the rationale and urgency of global Green House Gas (GHG) mitigation, the benefits of mitigation actions, and how these might fit with other national priorities.

4. Module Outline • State of Knowledge on Climate Change • GHG Emissions: Sources, Sinks and Sectors • Mitigation Actions, Potential Benefits and Sustainable Development

5. State of Knowledge on Climate Change Module A1

6. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007: • >2500 scientific expert reviewers, 1250 contributing and lead authors, >130 countries. • Three working groups: • WG I to assess the science of climate change • WG II to assess impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • WG III to assess mitigation of climate change

7. Key Findings of AR4 (IPCC, 2007) • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” • “Most of warming since mid-20th century from increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations” • “Continued GHG emissions... would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century” • “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change” • “There is substantial potential for… mitigation over the coming decades that could… reduce emissions below current levels”

8. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (IPCC 2007) • Global average air and ocean temperatures are increasing. • Global average sea level is rising. • Extent of snow and ice cover is decreasing. Warmest 12 years on record Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI

9. Reasons for Concern IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)

10. Updated Reasons for Concern Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)

11. Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable • Impacts are worse: • Large share of economy in climate sensitive sectors (e.g. agriculture, tourism) • Prone to natural disasters (e.g. floods and droughts) • Adds to existing water resource stresses • Multiple stresses and lower adaptive capacity: • Limited financial, institutional, technological capacity • Limited access to knowledge • Impacts disproportionately on poorest countries and poorest people: • Exacerbated human health, food security, malnutrition, clean water and other resource access concerns Slide adapted from Dr. RK Pachauri presentation, State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th January 2009.

12. Expected Impacts on Poor Regions People exposed to increased water stress by 2020: • 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia • 30% by 2080 in Latin America • 50% by 2020 in some African countries • 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia • 12 to 81 million in Latin America • 75 to 250 million in Africa Possible yield reduction in agriculture: Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa Slide adapted from Dr. R K Pachauri ‘s presentation, State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th January 2009.

13. Adaptation • Has the potential to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and can produce ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all damage • Numerous adaptation options have been identified • Greater and more rapid climate change would pose greater challenges for adaptation • Neither adaptation nor mitigation, alone, can avoid all impacts, but they can complement each other and together significantly reduce risks.

14. The Mitigation Challenge: Global Emissions Pathways Giving 67% Chance of Achieving Compliance with 2°C Guardrail Source: WGBU (2009)

15. GHG Emissions: Sources, Sinks and Sectors Module A2

16. Estimating GHG Emissions • UNFCCC accounting covers a basket of direct greenhouse gases (GHGs): • Expressed in global warming potential (GWP), which compares the radiative forcing of a tonne of a greenhouse gas over a given time period (e.g. 100 years) to a tonne of CO2 • Other climate forcers such as black carbon may be considered separately. • National GHG inventories: • Core element of national communications • Starting point for mitigation analysis.

17. Greenhouse Gases: Sources and Sinks Global anthropogenic GHG emissions (2004) *GWP = Global Warming Potential from Second Assessment Report, as used for reporting purposes under the UNFCCC Sources: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI & WGIII

18. Baseline Trends in Fossil-fuel and Industry-related CO2 Emissions • Baseline emissions growth in the coming decades will come predominantly from the developing world. • However, emissions per capita in developing countries are set to remain much lower than in the developed world. Source: Global Energy Assessment (2012, Forthcoming)

19. Regional Distribution of Emissions Per Capita and Per Dollar GDP Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII

20. Sectoral Emissions Trends CO2 only (1970-2004) All GHGs (2004) • Since 1970, increases in global CO2 emissions have been largely due to rise in fossil fuel use for electricity and transportation • Agriculture, forestry and land use change currently comprise about 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII

21. Mitigation Actions, Potential Benefits and Sustainable Development Module A3

22. Studies Show the Potential for Mitigation Actions to Greatly Reduce Global Emissions According to the IPCC (2007), “There is high agreement and much evidence that all stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialized in coming decades, assuming appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion and addressing related barriers.” Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 Synthesis Report

23. Key Mitigation Instruments,Policies and Practices • Research, development and demonstration • Appropriate energy infrastructure investments • Regulations and standards • Taxes and charges • Change in lifestyles and consumption patterns • Effective carbon price signal. Adapted from Dr. RK Pachauri’s presentation, State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th January 2009.

24. Potential Co-benefits of Mitigation • Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution • Increased energy security • More rural employment • Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems • Improved technological base • Strengthened institutions and human capacity Slide adapted from Dr. RK Pachauri’s presentation, State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th January 2009.

25. Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term Impacts of Mitigation on GDP Growth(for stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq) Schematic graph GDP Current Time 2030 Slide adapted from Dr. R. K Pachauri presentation, State of the World Symposium, Washington, 15th January 2009.

26. Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation • Possible relationships: • Complementary • Substitutable or • Independent? • Imperfect substitutes: • Because of long lag times in the climate system, no mitigation efforts will be able to prevent some amount of climate change • Conversely, reliance on adaptation alone would lead to a large magnitude of climate change, to which it would be very expensive to adapt. Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGII

27. Mitigation and Adaptation: Synergies and Trade-offs • Nature of benefits varies: • Mitigation: global and long-term • Adaptation: local and shorter term • Trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation • National level: often viewed as competing priorities • Local level: increasing recognition of overlaps, especially when natural, energy, and sequestration systems intersect • Particularly important for developing countries and LDCs relying on natural resources for energy and development • Examples emerging in bioenergy, forestry, agriculture • Both adaptation and mitigation depend on capital assets (including social capital). • Mitigation and adaptation policies can be related to sustainable development goals. Agroforestry Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII Photo source: Scitizen (2009)

28. Example: Tanzania National Agroforestry Strategy • 2004 National Agroforestry Strategy: • Goal: By 2020, 60% of resource-poor households adopt agroforestry technologies, contributing to improved livelihoods. • Complements “MKUKUTA” national development strategy (increasing household income while protecting the environment). • Crops, livestock, and trees/shrubs planted/retained on farm land create a web of resilient land use practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change, conserve biodiversity, and stop land degradation.

29. Two-Way Relationship between Climate Change and Sustainable Development Climate change influences natural and human living conditions, and social/economic development Society’s priorities on sustainable development influence GHG emissions, causing climate change and vulnerability Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII

30. Addressing Energy Poverty Source: OECD/IEA (2011)

31. Integrating Mitigation in Development Planning • Mitigation options that improve productivity of resource use (energy, water, land) generally yield sustainable development benefits. • Climate-related policies (e.g. energy efficiency) are often economically beneficial, improve energy security, reduce local pollution, and create jobs. • Opportunities for mitigation-sustainable development synergies are especially promising in waste management, transportation, and buildings (decreased energy use and reduced pollution). • Reducing deforestation can yield biodiversity, soil and water conservation benefits, but may result in economic loss and reduced agricultural (or forestry) production. • Capitalizing on synergies is especially relevant where economic and social development are the top priorities.

32. Possible Topics for Discussion • How might mitigation and adaptation policies differ in terms of implementation challenges? • Where are there opportunities to integrate climate change mitigation and sustainable development priorities in your country? • What are the challenges of addressing energy poverty? • Do you see mitigation as complementary to, or in competition with, development priorities?

33. Discussion Questions • Does the relative significance of sectors and their global/regional mitigation potential correspond to your expectations? Your national situation? • What are the pros and cons of approaching mitigation from a sectoral perspective? • Do national inventories typically provide sufficient data for mitigation analysis? What additional emissions data might be needed?