1 / 18

Drought Monitor Primer

Drought Monitor Primer. Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA NIDIS ACF Workshop, Albany, Georgia November 18, 2010. The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS).

devlin
Download Presentation

Drought Monitor Primer

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA NIDIS ACF Workshop, Albany, Georgia November 18, 2010

  2. The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) • Allows for early drought detection • Improves response (proactive) • Data and tools for decision support • “Triggers” actions within a drought plan • A critical mitigation action • Foundation of a drought plan

  3. Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) • Monitoring AND Forecasting • Access to timely data • Synthesis/analysis of data used to “trigger” set actions within a drought plan • Tools for decision makers • Efficient dissemination/communication (WWW, media, extension, etc.) • Drought risk planning • Education and Awareness

  4. The Drought Monitor Concept • A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map • “Convergence of evidence” approach • Trying to capture these characteristics: • the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) • spatial extent • probability of occurrence • Impacts • Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

  5. Objectives • “Fujita-like”scale • NOT a forecast! • NOT a drought declaration! • Identify impacts (A, H) • Assessment of current conditions • Incorporate local expertinput • Be as objective as possible

  6. U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile)

  7. Essential Tools!

  8. U.S. Drought Monitor • Integrates Key • Drought Indicators: • - Palmer Drought Index • - SPI • - KBDI • Modeled Soil Moisture • - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow • - Precipitation Anomalies • Growing Season: • - Crop Moisture Index • - Sat. Veg. Health Index • Soil Moisture • Mesonet data • In The West: • - SWSI • - Reservoir levels • Snowpack (SNOTEL) • SWE • Streamflow • Created in ArcGIS

  9. The Importance of Local Expert Input • The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth” • Listserver (270 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

  10. The Drought Monitor is Widely Used • Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers • ~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year • Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc. • Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefings • NIDISportal/portlet • A model of interagency collaboration

  11. ACF DEWS:Where to from here? • Input into DM from GA SCO • Input into DM from FL Team (SCO Coordinates) • Input into DM from AL MAG/DIG (SCO Coordinates) • Monitoring of impacts is virtually non-existent • Many indicators/indices/models don’t reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s)……or for both! • Early warning/monitoring just one key: THENWHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptation • NIDIS Portal/Engaging Preparedness Community

  12. http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/DRC.htm

More Related