Energy, Food & Transport for the 21 st Century

1. Energy, Food & Transport for the 21st Century An introduction to the dynamics of energy, food and transport Implications for sustainable / green living in the 21st century Karim Jaufeerally Institute for Environmental and Legal Studies iels.intnet.mu

2. Energy & Modern Society Sources of energy used world wide in 2008 Oil 33.2% Coal 27% Natural Gas 21.1% Hydro-electricity 2.2% Nuclear 5.6% Combustible renewable 10% Other (sun, wind, geothermal) 0.7% Total energy used: 12,267 Mtoe IEA 2010 (International Energy Association) – BP year book 2010 – USGS (US Geological Survey) – EIA (Energy Information Administration) US

4. Energy, Transport and the Economic system • All modern economic system totally reliant on transport • Transport system requires large amounts of energy • Reduction in transport = reduction in economic activity • Critical to examine transport energy issues!!!

5. Transport Energy

6. Oil is essential for modern transports • 99% of transport system relies on internal combustion engines (ICE) • 98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels • 98% of liquid fuel is OIL • Therefore: 95% of transport energy is OIL • 60% of all oil used for transportation • Oil is vital for modern transports which are vital to economic systems

7. Oil essential for industrial agriculture • Modern Industrial agriculture totally dependant on oil • agricultural machinery • Fertilisers – pesticides – insecticides • Transport from fields to factories to supermarkets to consumers • Chain from field to consumer totally dependent on OIL

8. Oil in transport & industrial agriculture is KING!!! Economic system & Industrial Agriculture totally reliant on transport Transport totally reliant on oil Need to examine future of oil closely

9. The Future of Oil • Of fossil origin • Non renewable • Resource subject to depletion

10. Different forms of oil • Conventional Oil In liquid form – low viscosity On Shore Offshore < 500 m 2. Non – Conventional Oil Deep Sea Oil (>500 m) Polar Oil Heavy Oil / Oil Sands Oil Shale

11. Offshore Oil • Conventional Off shore < 500 m – North Sea - Mexico • Non Conventional Off Shore – Deep Sea Oil > 500m Gulf of Mexico – Brazil – Angola

12. Polar Oil Oil in the Polar regions Alaska – Siberia – Canada Antarctica: Off limits via international conventions

13. Heavy, Bituminous sands / Oil sands The sands contain naturally occurring mixtures of sand, clay, water, and a dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum technically referred to as bitumen US, Russia, Middle East But especially Canada & Venezuela

14. Oil Shale Oil shale An organic-rich sedimentary rock from which liquid hydrocarbons can be extracted US, Estonia, China, Brazil

15. State of Oil Resources (2008)

16. Conventional Oil is dominant! • 80 % of world oil production comes from conventional oil fields from which 1/2 of the resource has already been extracted. • “Crude oil (conventional) output reaches and undulating plateau of around 68 – 69 mb/d by 2020 but never regains its all time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006,” World Energy Outlook 2010 – IEA

17. What is the future of oil production? • Critical to asses the future of world oil production • Need to understand oil production profile from typical oil field • Dr Hubbert King first to study oil production profiles in the 1950’s and proposes Peak Oil Theory

18. Theory vs. Reality

19. Oil Production always Peaks! • Simmons & Co

20. Peak Oil!!! • Oil is a finite non renewable resource • Resource base declines with production • Therefore a point will be reached when resource base has declined to such an extent (1/2) that current production can no longer be sustained • Thus oil production begins its decline • Peak Oil is real!!!!

21. When Will Oil Production Peak? • Hirsch Report

22. When Will Oil Production Peak? • An analytical model of future oil supply • Dr Krumdieck 2008 • Probability that the peak will have occurred

23. Crude Oil • Aspo

24. Can we shift to Non Conventional Oils? • Deep Sea & Polar Oil: Modest resource base (150 – 250 Billion Bbls) and modest rates of production (6.7 mb/d) • Heavy & Oil Sands: Large resource base (3600 Billion Bbls) but low rates of productions (2.7 mb/d) • Oil Shale: Large resource base (2800 billion bbls), very low rates of production (11,000 bbls/day), technically difficult

25. Impacts of Peak Oil • Peak Oil will happen • Oil Demand unmet - Prices oscillate widely from very high to fairly low • Oil supplies will diminish • What Impacts?

26. Impacts of Peak Oil: The Hirsch Report 2005 PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

27. Impacts of Peak Oil • Hirsch Report

28. Impacts of Peak Oil • Shortages in oil supply = Reduction in modern transports = Reduction in economic activities • Industrial agricultural systems under stress • Threatened food security • Threatened energy security

29. Impacts of Peak Oil • Geopolitical instability • Risks of war • Revolutions, Coup d'états

30. The Energy Crisis It is mainly an oil supply crisis It is an acute crisis of liquid fuel for transportation It is also a food crisis What alternatives to oil for transportation?

32. The constraint of limited substitution in transport For many purposes, difficult to substitute one form of energy for another. Especially in transportation!!! WHY?? • Dependency on liquid fuel especially oil (95% of transport energy) (2) The volumes of oil consumed daily in that sector (60% of 86 million barrels per day!) (3) The time required to change energy infrastructure, 20 to 30 years (4) Financial capital required Oil Dependency, Volume, Time and Capital

33. The constraint of limited substitution, renewable energies and transport – very acute! • Solar: Heat – Electricity • Wind: Electricity • Biomass: Combustion energy-biofuels • Hydro: Electricity • Geothermal: Heat – Electricity • Tidal: Electricity 99% Transportation relies on internal combustion engines (ICE) 98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels 98% liquid fuel is oil 95% of transport energy is oil Thus, except for biomass, renewable energies CANNOT be used for transportation unless massive electrification occurs

34. What liquid fuels alternatives to oil for transportation exist? • BTL: Biomass to liquids • GTL: Gas to liquids • CTL: Coal to liquids • Natural Gas

35. Biomass to Liquids (BTL) • Ethanol, biodiesel mainly • 1.84 million of barrels per day – 2010 • Competes with food production • Only 1% of transport energy • Biofuels compete with food production in many cases

36. Gas to Liquids (GTL) • The transformation of methane into liquid fuel using the Fisher-Tropsch (F-T) process. • Less than 100,000 barrels per day of production

37. Gas to Liquids (GTL) • Qatar, Ras Laffan Industrial City • Integrated gas and gas-to liquids project by Shell • Investment $18 billion-$19 billion • 140,000 barrels of GTL per day • Completion date: 2010 • Time of construction: 4 – 5 years • 130,000 US $ of investment of each barrel of GTL/day of production capacity

38. Coal to Liquids (CTL) • Synthesis of liquid fuels from coal using the Fisher-Tropsch process. • Used extensively by Germany during WW2 which lacked access to sufficient oil resources • 50% of liquid fuels during wartime Germany came from CTL • In spite of abundant coal and water, German military always short of fuel. • Significant factor in Germany’s final defeat

39. Coal to Liquids (CTL) • Sasol of South Africa uses 140,000 tonnes of coal to produce 150,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil • Chinese plant produces another 20,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil • 1 ton of coal = 1 barrel of synthetic crude oil (approx) • CTL never covered more than 40% of liquid fuel demand in SA • World coal production 7 billion tonnes per year • World oil production 30 billion barrels per year

40. Natural Gas • 1.8 million barrels per day used for transportation (approx) • 3.4% of transport energy • Storage problematic • Requires new distribution and storage network • Requires large increases in NG production

41. Natural Gas In 2007, an Australian Senate Committee considered the wider use of natural gas as a transport fuel but found that there were significant problems. 1) Natural gas requires either a refrigeration system or compression and a large gas tank for storage, which limits its range. 2) The process of compression or freezing is energy-intensive and therefore detracts from the net energy available for transport. 3) In the case of commercial vehicles, the extra weight and cost of a gas conversion makes the payback period quite lengthy and the economics are thus dependant on generous tax concessions in the excise regime. 4) A nationwide lack of refuelling infrastructure appears to be another obstacle to wider use. The Senate Committee’s conclusion regarding the use of natural gas was thus ambivalent. In the medium term, gas might substitute for oil as a transport fuel but its use would be only a bridge, not a long-term fix, and ultimately gas will run out as well.

42. Lets’ add up all our alternatives • BTL: 1.84 million bbls/day • GTL: 100,000 to 240,000 bbls/day • CTL: 170,000 bbls/day • Natural Gas: 1.8 million bbls/day • Total: 4 million bbls/day (7.5% of transportation fuels) • Compare with 86 million barrels/day of oil production 61% (52.8 mb/d) of which goes to transportation

43. How about hydrogen? • Neither ready technically nor economic • Difficulties in large scale production of hydrogen • Difficulties in storing and distributing hydrogen on a wide scale • Requires a new fleet of vehicles • Colossal time and capital constraints • H2 NOT a source of energy as must be produced from a primary source of energy

44. Transition to electric power in transport • Can we transition away from liquid fuels / oil for transportation in time? • This means the electrification of land transport • Remember only 1% of transport energy comes from electricity. • Transition to electric power will require time, capital and additional renewable sources of electric power • Air and maritime transport CANNOT be electrified at present!

45. Alternatives to oil for transportation

46. The problem of scaling up supply of AF • Use of liquid fuels alternatives such as CTL, GTL, BTL or NG CANNOT be scaled up very quickly. • Scaling up requires new production facilities • In case of NG new distribution networks • Thus lots of resources, capital and time!!! Hirsch Report • 15 yrs of crash programme to substitute 25 mbbls/day of oil

47. The problem of renewing the vehicular fleet • In US average vehicle is 9 yrs old • It takes 17 to 20 years to renew fleet

48. Stuck on oil!!! • In effect, we have an oil based transportation system with few substitutes. • To make a transition away from one form of energy to another takes at least 2 to 3 decades!!! • We are stuck with an oil dependant transportation system for the foreseeable future.

49. We all look like oil junkies!!! • Oil Addiction is bad for your health!!! • Refusal to see reality • Refusal to consider changing lifestyle • Desperate search for alternatives to oil • Biofuels, Renewables, Nuclear, Coal, Natural Gas, ANYTHING!

50. To sum up • Excessive dependence on oil for transport • Excessive dependence of industrial food systems on oil • Peak Oil is INEVITABLE – only timing uncertain (2005 – 2015 – 2020) • Limited substitution for oil • Any transition away from oil takes decades • Colossal capital requirements • Scaling up of any alternatives difficult, slow & expensive • There will be shortfalls in liquid fuels for transportation