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  1. Heikki Oksanen* Pensions in International Perspective: European Union and China 养老金的国际视野:欧盟和中国 The Third China International Senior Service Expo, CISSE 2014第 三届中国国际养老服务业博览会 Forum on Financial Services for the Elderly, 5 May 2014, Beijing 2014年5月5日,北京 *Adjunct Professor, University of Helsinki 赫尔辛基大学 Former Research Adviser at European Commission, 前欧洲理事会研究主管 Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels. 经济和金融司 (05.04.2014)

  2. Demographic challenge 人口挑战 • Public expenditure projections made at EU level 欧盟的公共支出预测 • Degree of funding (choosing between PAYG and partial funding) 积累制的程度(现收现付vs部分积累制) • Reform scenarios for China from model simulations 基于模拟模型的中国改革方案

  3. 1. Demographic challenge 人口挑战 In the EU it is not only post WW II baby boom, but a persistent change! 在欧盟,这不仅仅是二战后的“婴儿潮”,更是持续的变化! Longevity is increasing one year per decade – in China 7 years over 5 decades. 每10年寿命增加1年-中国50年增加7年。 In EU fertility has declined to (below) 1.7 – this means that births decline by 20% in every 30 years (as about 2.1 is required for constant birth rate). 欧盟的生育率已降至1.7-这意味着每30年减少20%(2.1被认为是恒定生育率) In China according to UN projection fertility rate currently 1.6 and reaches 1.85 by 2060. Chinese projections probably lower. Effects of recent policy changes to be studied.根据联合国预测,中国目前生育率为1.6,将在2060年增加到1.85。国内的预测可能较低。最近的政策影响待研究。

  4. Old-age dependency ratio in main regions globally 全球主要地区老年赡养率 The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the population 65+/15-64, %. Source: UN medium variant projections 2010.

  5. 2. Public expenditure projections made at EU level 欧盟的公共支出预测 Economic Policy Committee and European Commission (DG ECFIN) reports on ageing-related public expenditures 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2012 (projections to 2060) cover pensions, health care and long-term care. 欧盟经济政策理事会和欧洲理事会(经济和金融司)关于老龄公共支出的预测2001,2006,2009,2012(直到2060)覆盖养老,医疗和长期护理。 Based on currently prevailing rules. No assessment of political sustainability thereof. No reform options. 根据现行制度,没有政治持续性评估,也没有改革方案。 Projections might be biased downwards. 预测可能偏低

  6. Public pension expenditure 公共养老支出 Average 2010: 2010年平均 EU-27 11.3 % of GDP 欧盟-27国 GDP的11.3% Euro area 12.2 % of GDP 欧元区 GDP的12.2% Large variation: extremes 6.8 % in the Netherlands (toped up by occupational pensions that are classified outside government accounts) and 15.3 % in Italy. 显著差异:荷兰6.8% (额外有不属于政府预算的职业年金),意大利15.3%。 Projected increase 2010-2060: 2010-2060预测增加 EU-27 1.5 p.p. (percentage points) of GDP 欧盟27国GDP1.5% euro area 2.0 p.p. of GDP 欧元区2%

  7. Change in gross public pension expenditure 2010-2060 (p.p. of GDP)2010-2060 总公共养老支出变化(占GDP比例)

  8. Conclusions from the projections (1) 预测结论(1) • 1. Two types of problems with sustainability of pensions: 养老金可持续性的两种问题 • countries with high expenditure growth, 高支出增长国家 • countries with negative or low expenditure growth but may not be political sustainable. 负或低支出增长国家,但政治可能不稳定 • 2. Other ageing related expenditures increase even more than pensions: total ageing related expenditure by 2060 • EU-27 +4.1 p.p. of GDP 其他与老龄相关的支出可能比养老还多:到2060年总老龄相关的支出 欧盟-27国 GDP的4.1% • euro area +4.5 p.p. of GDP 欧元区 GDP的4.5% • (and these might rather be biased downwards). (这些预测可能偏低)

  9. Conclusions from the projections (2) 预测结论(2) 3. GDPis not the tax base ! The projected increase in ageing related public expenditures corresponds to 7-8per cent of private consumption ! GDP不是税基!预测的老龄公共支出增加约为私人消费的7-%% 4. Is such an increase in tax rates feasible? Gross tax rate is already now 40% of GDP in EU on average! 税率的增加可行吗?欧盟的总税率目前已为GDP的40% We have seen a positive correlation between social security spending and economic growth in the past, but are we reaching the limits? 我们注意到过去社保支出和经济增长的正相关,但是已到极限?

  10. 3. Degree of funding in EU and CN 欧盟和中国积累制的程度 While pensions are largely unfunded in most EU countries, some exceptions: the Netherlands, Denmark, the United Kingdom and Finland (reserves invested in financial markets). 欧盟的大多数国家为非积累制,除了荷兰,丹麦,英国和芬兰(基金投资于金融市场) Broadly speaking, in Western Europe: 一般来讲,在西欧: Working age population from 1945-early 1970s saved and invested both collectively and privately. Invested also in children (number and education). 1945-1970早期的就业人口,或总体或个体,都储蓄和投资。也投资于子女。 They established public pension systems, mostly PAYG. Extracting benefits during retirement. Quite fair! 他们建立以现收现付制为主的公共养老制度。然后退休时享受待遇。挺公平!

  11. Working age population since 1970s reduced fertility and live longer, and reduced collective and private saving. 1970年之后的就业人口降低生育率并寿命增加,减少总体和个体储蓄。 Without significant reforms the next generation would have to bear a drastically increased burden (not feasible). 如果没有大的改革,下一代需要承受的负担将极大提高(不可行) As reduction of benefit levels may not be acceptable and pension contributions (or taxes in general) will not be significantly increased, increasing retirement age is necessary. 降低待遇不可行,养老缴费(或税收)也不会提高很多,增加退休年龄成为必要的。 An adjustment according to increase in longevity from now onwards is insufficient, but an incremental increase is called for (in the next 10 years or so). 从现在开始,根据长寿的调整是不够的,但是渐进式的增加已经开始(在未来10年左右)

  12. Implications for China’s urban system 对中国城镇养老制度的影响) In the CN urban system (from 1990s) individual accounts were originally supposed to be fully funded but became largely empty. 中国城镇制度(从90年代开始)中的个人账户本应该为实账,但基本为空账 This can be accepted as public pension system without reserves may be justified in China: over the past 3 decades people have contributed to the wealth of the nation in many other ways outside the public pension system (like in Europe 1945-1975). 这可以被接受,因为没有积累的公共养老制度在中国也许是合理的。在过去的30年中,人们已经以不同形式为国家财富的积累做出了贡献,包括养老制度(如同欧洲1945-1975) Targeted degree of funding should be set in the light of total saving (> link to global imbalances). High degree of funding may not be the best choice for China for the next couple of decades. However, demographic ageing is significant in China, and therefore a partially funded system might become advisable. 目标积累制程度应以整体储蓄为准(并且与全球失衡联系)。在未来20年,高积累程度对中国也许不是最好的选择。但是,人口老龄化在中国是显著的,因此部分积累制也是更合理。

  13. 4. Reform scenarios for China 中国改革方案 CN Pension-System Simulation Model (first version published, extended version under preparation) 中国养老制度模拟模型 Wide range of pension reform options 多种改革方案 Social pool pensions can be accompanied by individual accounts (accumulating assets placed on the financial market), and flat-rate pensions; 社会统筹可以和个人账户并存 (后者基金投资于金融市场),统一养老金 Any changes in the retirement age can be simulated; 可以模拟任何退休年龄的变化 Urban – migrants – rural separate systems (can be made similar or converge) 城镇-农民工-农村不同制度 By age, gender and employment status. 按年龄,性别和雇佣情况 The model gives results for combinations regarding demographic and economic variables and pension system parameters. 模型可以模拟,人口,经济和养老制度不同变量的不同组合

  14. Urbanisation and migrants 城镇化和农民工 • Urbanisation: 城镇化 • Half-official Chinese projection: 70% by 2050 or earlier. 中国官方预测的一半:2050年之前达到70% • In model projection it is 66% in 2030 and reaches 70% in 2045. 2030年66%,2045年70% • Migration to cities: 移居到城市: • Employment share of migrants in urban areas in 2010 one third. 城市农民工2010年就业比例1/3. • In the model it increases to over 40% in 2025 and then declines. 2025年增加到40%,然后减少 • Pension system coverage of migrants 农民工养老制度覆盖率 • estimated at 20% in 2010. 2010年20% • staying constant in baseline; in reform scenarios increases to close to full coverage by 2040. 在基准方案中保持不变;在改革方案中,直到2040年增加到接近全覆盖

  15. China’s population: urban hukou – migrants – rural Model projection, million people 中国人口:城镇户口-农民工-农村; 百万

  16. Main results for urban pension system (1) 主要结论(1) • Under the current rules, the urban system goes into deficit. 目前制度,城镇制度将出现赤字 • Reform: retirement age up by 5 years by 2020 and then by 2060 +2 for men and +4 for women. 改革:退休年龄2020年前增加5岁,2060年,男性再2岁,女性4岁 • Second pillar contributions 8% 第二支柱 缴费率8% • First pillar contributions in 2014 down to 16% for urban proper, • for migrants to 12%, gradually increasing to 16% by 2040. 第一支柱缴费率2014年降至16%,但农民工可为12%,然后在2040年前逐步增加到16% • Coverage of migrants assumed to increase. 农民工覆盖率假定提高 • Subsidy of 1% of GDP from government to first pillar required until 2050. - Second pillar surplus roughly the same. So, not impossible over one generation. 2050前,第一支柱需要相当于GDP1%的政府补贴;第二支柱结余保持不变。所以,在一代人中不是不可能。 • However, in very long run the first pillar is not sustainable. 但是,长期来看,第一支柱不可持续 • Therefore, further reforms needed for adjusting to further increase in longevity etc. 因此,进一步的改革需要与长寿同步

  17. Main results for urban pension system (2) 主要结论(2) MAIN QUESTION: IS THE ASSUMED RETIREMENT AGE INCREASE UNREALISTIC? – Crowding out younger? 主要问题:假定的退休年龄提高不现实?对年轻人的“挤出效应”? Probably not the main problem: effect of retirement age increase on aggregate numbers is smaller than migration from rural to cities. 也许不是大问题:退休年龄的提高对总数的影响比农民工的数量还小 Employment opportunities for educated labour should be created by technologically advanced production. 科技创新应该可以为受教育劳动力创造就业机会

  18. Conclusions 结论 • Pension from a financially sustainable urban system will not be generous (45% replacement rate) 一个可持续的城镇养老制度将不慷慨(45%替代率) • Should retirement age be raised even higher than assumed here (which was +5 years by 2020 and gradually more)? 退休年龄应该比假设的提高更多? • Targeted new rural pensions (2009) and urban citizens’ pensions (2011) are not generous. 目标新农保(2009)和城镇居民养老(2011)不慷慨 • Should they be increased? From which financial sources? Transfers from central government? Revenue base of the government to be strengthened in general? 应该提高吗?资金来源?中央政府转移?政府收入应该提高? • A broader issue concerning social security expenditure in general: a large part of revenues of local governments currently come from selling land – wider revenue base needed. 一个关于社保支出的问题:地方政府的很大一部分收入是土地收入

  19. Already published (1) 已经发表(1) Oksanen, Heikki (2012), ‘China: Pension Reform for an Aging Economy’, Chapter 7 in Robert Holzmann, Edward Palmer, and David Robalino (eds), 2012. Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World: Volume I—Progress, Lessons, and Implementation. Washington, DC: World Bank, available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9378 In the same volume Chapter 6: Zheng Bingwen (CASS): ‘China: An InnovativeHybrid Pension Design Proposal’ .

  20. Already published (2) 已经发表(2) Previous Working paper version of 2010: Oksanen, Heikki (2010), ‘The Chinese pension system: First results on assessing the reform options’, European Economy, Economic Papers, No 412. Published in Chinese in Social Security Studies, Issue 2010:2, pp. 3-38; 中国养老保险制度 -- 改革方案的初步测评 (欧盟) Heikki Oksanen (translated by LI Yue), publisher the Center of Social Security Studies of Renmin University, Beijing, China. It is available from a Chinese academic journal database at http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-SHBB201002004.htm(needs a username and password).

  21. Thank you for your attention! 谢谢您的聆听! Comments and suggestions highly welcome. 欢迎指正 hkk.oksanen@gmail.com