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  1. Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in (AIACC) Neil Leary Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment July 29 - August 7, 2002

  2. Implementing, Executing & Collaborating Agencies • UN Environment Programme (UNEP) • Global SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) • Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  3. AIACC Funding Sources • Global Environment Facility (GEF) • Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) • US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)

  4. AIACC Objectives • Advance scientific understanding • Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions. • Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity • In developing countries to investigate I, A & V and participate in international scientific assessments. • Generate and communicate information • Useful for adaptation planning and action and for preparation of National Communications under UNFCCC.

  5. AIACC Activities • Peer reviewed grants for regional studies • Project development & training workshops • Regional workshops • Thematic workshops • Ongoing technical support & mentoring • Facilitation of peer review publication • Synthesis

  6. AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa

  7. AIACC Regional Studies in Southern Africa

  8. AIACC Regional Studies in Asia

  9. AIACC Regional Studies in Latin America

  10. AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands

  11. AIACC Regional Studies Highly Heterogeneous • Not a research program with specific objectives, approaches, scenarios, models dictated from above • Different objectives determine relative emphases of I, A, & V in the regional studies • Objectives drive choices of approaches, methods, models, scenarios • Choices are made by the regional study PIs and their teams

  12. Commonalities among regional studies • All studies contribute to broad objectives of AIACC • Advance scientific understanding of I,A, & V • Build scientific/technical capacity • Generate & communicate information for adaptation • Each study addresses adaptation • Was a requirement in grant review & approval • Most studies incorporate stakeholder participation

  13. Vulnerability vs. impact assessment • Priority given to adaptation in AIACC, leading to emphasis on vulnerability in many of the studies • Vulnerability: capacity to be harmed by a hazard (e.g. climate change)

  14. Two aspects of vulnerability • Exposure to a hazard or set of hazards • Capacity of exposed individual, community, system to • Anticipate • Cope with, • Resist and • Recover from impacts of the hazard(s)

  15. Impact Assessment • Tends to focus on exposure • Careful attention to scenarios of climate change that characterize the hazards to which people/systems will be exposed. • Capacities of people/systems not emphasized • Often simplistic, ad hoc treatment • Impact studies beginning to use multiple socioeconomic scenarios to address

  16. Vulnerability Assessment • Focuses on capacities of people, communities, systems that determine impacts of exposures • identify factors, processes that enhance or degrade capacities • Shed light on effective adaptation • Hazard exposure often characterized by incremental scenarios • Informed by GCM, RCM projections

  17. Common Ground for V & I Analyses • VA needed to provide more sophisticated understanding & representation of • Capacities of people, communities, systems • Adaptation processes and effectiveness • Dimensions of the hazard that matter most • Impact models can integrate info about capacities with “predicted” exposures • Quantitative estimates of impacts for different scenarios of capacities and exposures • Quantitative risk analysis

  18. AIACC Synthesis • Regional studies are expected to be completed by end of 2004. • How can we synthesize work of 23 studies that • Ask different questions • Use different conceptual frameworks • Use different scenarios for climate, socioeconomic etc • Use different methods and models?

  19. Mechanisms for synthesis • Regional workshops • Thematic synthesis workshops • Public web-based information network

  20. AIACC Regional Workshops • Two rounds of regional workshops planned • Feb-Apr 2003 • Aug-Sept 2004 • Opportunity for study teams to • Present & discuss preliminary results with other researchers in their region • Share expertise, collaborate to solve common problems • Lay groundwork for synthesis

  21. AIACC Regional Workshops • Develop broad cross-cutting questions on issues common to many individual studies • Distribute before 1st round of workshops, refine via list-serve discussion • Ask teams to address the questions in their presentations • Discuss commonalities, differences • Plan next steps • Repeat process for 2nd round of workshops • Same questions?

  22. Thematic Synthesis Workshops* • Series of 3 or 4 small workshops in 2005 • Each to be focused on a cross-cutting question or theme • Price of admission: a paper on the theme • Objectives of each workshop • Present, discuss, revise individual papers • Write a joint synthesis paper • Publish individual & synthesis papers as package *Seeking financial support for these.

  23. Web-based Information Network • AIACC regional study database • Ready access to information, data, results from each regional study • Electronic working paper series • Guided Web discussions • Develop, refine cross-cutting questions • Discussion of cross-cutting questions • Discussion of other issues (working papers, methods, models, data, training opportunities etc)

  24. Illustrative cross-cutting questions • Are there spatial, demographic or other patterns to who is vulnerable? • What are the critical determinants of vulnerability to climate hazards now? Are they the same determinants for vulnerability to climate change in the future?

  25. Illustrative cross-cutting questions • What trends are likely to diminish (enhance) future vulnerability to climatic hazards and climate change? • What policies or adaptation strategies can lessen long-term vulnerability to climate change and near-term vulnerability to climatic hazards?