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Developing Rural Scotland

Developing Rural Scotland. Alan Renwick. COMMISSIONED BY. PARTNER INSTITUTES. Research Challenges. Soil, Water, Biodiversity all functions of our choice of land use. Land use determined by complex and uncertain interaction of technical, economic, environmental, social factors

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Developing Rural Scotland

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  1. Developing Rural Scotland Alan Renwick COMMISSIONED BY PARTNER INSTITUTES

  2. Research Challenges Soil, Water, Biodiversity all functions of our choice of land use. Land use determined by complex and uncertain interaction of technical, economic, environmental, social factors Key issue is understanding interaction between people and environment (in widest sense)

  3. Research Themes

  4. Climate Change An example – Climate Change Mitigation – responses to limit the magnitude/rate of change Adaptation - “Adjustments in ecological-social-economic systems in response to expected climatic stimuli, their effects and impacts” (Smit 2000) Identifiable need: Integrated Responses Mtc

  5. Mitigation • Targets for UK • Agriculture Accounts for: • 12% of all greenhouse gases in Scotland (overall rural contribution greater) • 68% of Scottish methane emissions and 83% of Scottish nitrous oxide emissions • Options to mitigate • Changes in practice • Changes in land-use MtC

  6. Land Use - Bio-energy • Biofuels • Wheat/Sugar (Bio-ethanol) • Oilseeds (Bio-diesel) • Heat and Power • Miscanthus • Short rotation coppice • Forestry (particularly in uplands and margins) • Prospective increased change in lowlands to energy crops

  7. Feasible • Previous work shows: • Suitability for some energy crops • Estimates of carbon balances for different crops • ‘assume 350,000 hectares become available in the UK for biomass crops’ UK Biomass Strategy May 2007 • Which 350,000 hectares are these?? SRC Willow

  8. Viable • Economics of energy crops • are at best marginal. • Improve? • Technology • Value Added • Opportunity Cost • A need to understand how they • fit into farming systems • Marketing Issues • Cultural Issues Feed Wheat Price

  9. Acceptability • Landscape • Biodiversity – • monocultures • marginal areas (LFA) • Aesthetics – neighbourhood, • recreation and tourism • A fundamental question: • Must we choose between • food and fuel? Now I am sure I saw some sheep on a hill somewhere

  10. Adaptation Changes to Seasonality of Precipitation (winter minus summer) • 60% reduction in UK CO2 • emissions – stabilising at global • levels (550ppm CO2 limit) still • means 2OC+ for Scotland • Significant changes • increased rainfall intensity, • seasonality, • storm activity, • extreme events. • Are there positive and negative impacts?

  11. Risk of Colorado Beetle - current Negative

  12. Risk of Colorado Beetle - 2050

  13. Landscape & Biodiversity Example issues: Is the suitable "climate-space" for plants and animals northwards and uphill? What and where are the barriers and ‘bottlenecks’? What will resultant habitats be like? A landscape-scale approach can aid understanding of issues of connectivity and character Climate Space "chequered skippers" Bottle-neck in Central Belt

  14. Adaptation - Feasibility Landscape Planning Challenges Better targeted knowledge on change/trends Major implications for policy (eg SSSIs and Tier III LMC) Dynamic rather than static designations Co-ordination and co-operation between managers and other stakeholders Incentivised through Agri-Environment schemes? Bottle-neck in the Central Belt?

  15. Adaptation - Viability • Challenge for Agri-Environment Schemes • Understanding Value • Ownership • Regional/local objectives? • Adaptive management • Acceptable land use change • Recreation, amenity, aesthetics • Perceptions and Use (Rural-Urban) • Cultural factors (e.g. historic environment) Photographs courtesy of FWAG Scotland

  16. Adaptation - Acceptability Stakeholder and public acceptability of landscape adaptation requires: Understanding and awareness of what changes will occur and why Evidence of consideration of alternative options Participation and engagement in decision-making process Picture to be replaced Public participation in planning future land uses in the Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park

  17. Integrated Responses • Delivering Integrated Responses • Interdisciplinary research • Valuation • Trade-offs inherent in • sustainable development • Science and society • Governance • Participation AG2 F2 E1-2

  18. Sustainable development Lisbon Agenda recognises that “competitiveness" is underpinned by quality-of-life which in turn depends on the environment

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