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Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA. Objectives:

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Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System

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  1. Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA

  2. Objectives: • Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget • Synthesize information from: • ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses • Oceanographic obs • Terrestrial obs • Satellite obs • Land surface models • Coupled ice-ocean models

  3. Some Products …(all 2007) Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic J Geophys Res, 112 Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysissubmitted toGeophys Res Lett Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th century submitted toGeophys Res Lett Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast Geophys Res Lett, 34 Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer state EOS, this week

  4. Linkages to explore • SASS I: • Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming • Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends • Miles: climate modes’ role in warming • Walker: marine warming  terrestrial ecosystem response? SASS II: • Zhang: ocean warming  plankton response? (modeling) • Matrai: ocean warming  plankton response? (obs) probably others we’ve missed…

  5. The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic (annual mean, seasonal cycle) Serreze, Barrett, Slater, Steele (2007) FTOA EA/t Atmospheric Column • ERA40 • NCEP re-analysis • ERBE -FA Fsfc Ice/Ocean/Land Column -(FO – FI) • Vinje obs. • J. Zhang model • Climatology (PHC) EIOL/t

  6. Seasonal Energy Budget (ERA-40) down …too much? up LWtop too big Net Annual Surface Heat Flux (ERA-40) W/m2

  7. Observed Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, Serreze (2007) Compiled by NSIDC 2007 4.13

  8. Observed Temperature Anomalies (NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999) winter winter summer It’s starting to happen! The Emergence of Arctic Amplification Serreze, Barrett, Stroeve, Holland (2007) Modeled Future SAT ice thinning  winter surface warming

  9. Beaufort-W summer (Jul-Aug-Sep)Arctic Seas Ocean Surface Warmingover the 20th century Steele, Ermold, Zhang (GRL submitted ’07) summer (JAS) Sea Surface Temp (0-10 m) World Ocean Database ’05 (in situ data)

  10. SST trends & the AO 1965-95 Ice AO  diverg Ocean AtlW Warming influenced by ocean & ice advection

  11. recent warming recent warming recent warming 1930 1995 1965 1930 1965 1995 insitu WOD’05 SST trends:regional anomaly time series satellite Reynolds et al smoothed SST (C) (a) Beaufort-E (b) Beaufort-W SST (C) (c) Bering St (d) ESS+ Laptev SST (C) (f) Chukchi (e) Kara

  12. 2007: What a year! Max Anom  5°C Temperature Anomaly (C) July-AugSSTanomalies(rel to 1982-2007) 2000 2001 2002 ehh 2005 2004 2003 2006 2007

  13. Thank You

  14. Energy Transports across 70 deg N

  15. Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content 70-90 degN Jan 365633 Feb 295006 Mar 301168 Apr 292278 May 349785 Jun 490397 Jul 620166 Aug 725292 Sep 733829 Oct 701069 Nov 652471 Dec 366975 MJ * 1015 M M A A M J S N J J F O D Months Annual mean Courtesy M Steele 1000 MJ/m2

  16. The Emergence of Arctic Amplification Oct-Dec Temperature Anomalies in NCEP, Relative to 1979-1999 The Signature in CCSM3

  17. recent warming recent warming recent warming 1930 1995 1965 1930 1965 1995 insitu WOD’05 SST trends:regional anomaly time series satellite Reynolds et al smoothed SST (C) (a) Beaufort-E (b) Beaufort-W ice advection influence SST (C) (c) Bering St (d) ESS+ Laptev decadal osc? SST (C) (f) Chukchi (e) Kara

  18. PacW sub- surface 1930-65 1965-95 converg AO  AO  AtlW • Ocean advection influence • Ice advection influence SST trends & the AO diverg cooling warming

  19. down …too much? up weak strong Net Surface Heat Flux from ERA-40 January Annual July W/m2 W/m2

  20. LWtop too big Seasonal Arctic Ocean Energy Budget (ERA-40)

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