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Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA. Objectives:

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slide1

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System

Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater

CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado,

Boulder, CO

Michael Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA

slide2

Objectives:

  • Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget
  • Synthesize information from:
  • ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses
  • Oceanographic obs
  • Terrestrial obs
  • Satellite obs
  • Land surface models
  • Coupled ice-ocean models
slide3

Some Products

…(all 2007)

Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007)

The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic

J Geophys Res, 112

Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007)

Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysissubmitted toGeophys Res Lett

Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007)

Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th century

submitted toGeophys Res Lett

Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007)

Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

Geophys Res Lett, 34

Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007)

Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer state

EOS, this week

slide4

Linkages to explore

  • SASS I:
    • Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming
    • Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends
    • Miles: climate modes’ role in warming
    • Walker: marine warming  terrestrial ecosystem response?

SASS II:

  • Zhang: ocean warming  plankton response? (modeling)
  • Matrai: ocean warming  plankton response? (obs)

probably others we’ve missed…

slide5

The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic

(annual mean, seasonal cycle)

Serreze, Barrett, Slater, Steele (2007)

FTOA

EA/t

Atmospheric Column

  • ERA40
  • NCEP re-analysis
  • ERBE

-FA

Fsfc

Ice/Ocean/Land Column

-(FO – FI)

  • Vinje obs.
  • J. Zhang model
  • Climatology (PHC)

EIOL/t

slide6

Seasonal

Energy Budget

(ERA-40)

down

…too much?

up

LWtop too big

Net Annual Surface

Heat Flux

(ERA-40)

W/m2

slide7

Observed Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast

Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, Serreze (2007)

Compiled by NSIDC

2007

4.13

slide8

Observed Temperature

Anomalies

(NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999)

winter

winter

summer

It’s starting to happen!

The Emergence of

Arctic Amplification

Serreze, Barrett,

Stroeve, Holland (2007)

Modeled Future SAT

ice thinning 

winter surface warming

summer jul aug sep arctic seas ocean surface warming over the 20 th century

Beaufort-W

summer (Jul-Aug-Sep)Arctic Seas Ocean Surface Warmingover the 20th century

Steele, Ermold, Zhang

(GRL submitted ’07)

summer (JAS)

Sea Surface Temp

(0-10 m)

World Ocean Database ’05

(in situ data)

sst trends the ao
SST trends & the AO

1965-95

Ice

AO 

diverg

Ocean

AtlW

Warming influenced by ocean & ice advection

sst trends regional anomaly time series

recent

warming

recent

warming

recent

warming

1930

1995

1965

1930

1965

1995

insitu

WOD’05

SST trends:regional anomaly time series

satellite

Reynolds et al

smoothed

SST (C)

(a) Beaufort-E

(b) Beaufort-W

SST (C)

(c) Bering St

(d) ESS+ Laptev

SST (C)

(f) Chukchi

(e) Kara

july aug sst anomalies rel to 1982 2007

2007:

What a year!

Max Anom  5°C

Temperature Anomaly (C)

July-AugSSTanomalies(rel to 1982-2007)

2000

2001

2002

ehh

2005

2004

2003

2006

2007

slide14

Energy Transports

across 70 deg N

arctic ocean sensible heat content
Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content

70-90 degN

Jan 365633

Feb 295006

Mar 301168

Apr 292278

May 349785

Jun 490397

Jul 620166

Aug 725292

Sep 733829

Oct 701069

Nov 652471

Dec 366975

MJ * 1015

M

M

A

A

M

J

S

N

J

J

F

O

D

Months

Annual

mean

Courtesy M Steele

1000 MJ/m2

slide16

The Emergence of Arctic Amplification

Oct-Dec Temperature

Anomalies in NCEP,

Relative to 1979-1999

The Signature in CCSM3

sst trends regional anomaly time series1

recent

warming

recent

warming

recent

warming

1930

1995

1965

1930

1965

1995

insitu

WOD’05

SST trends:regional anomaly time series

satellite

Reynolds et al

smoothed

SST (C)

(a) Beaufort-E

(b) Beaufort-W

ice advection

influence

SST (C)

(c) Bering St

(d) ESS+ Laptev

decadal osc?

SST (C)

(f) Chukchi

(e) Kara

sst trends the ao1

PacW

sub-

surface

1930-65

1965-95

converg

AO 

AO 

AtlW

  • Ocean advection influence
  • Ice advection influence
SST trends & the AO

diverg

cooling

warming

slide19

down

…too much?

up

weak

strong

Net Surface Heat Flux

from ERA-40

January

Annual

July

W/m2

W/m2

slide20

LWtop too big

Seasonal

Arctic Ocean

Energy Budget

(ERA-40)