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Systems Change Modeling

This document outlines the modeling of client movement within the Sonoma County Continuum of Care, utilizing HMIS data and 2011 count data to simulate outcomes for homelessness services. It presents a systems change model based on exercises from the April 2011 CCPG meeting, standardizing exit rates and identifying the impact of introducing various housing options such as Permanent Supportive Housing, Transitional Housing, Emergency Shelter, and Rapid Re-Housing. The model aims to illustrate pathways for homeless clients toward permanent housing while addressing the limitations of simplification and the absence of client preferences.

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Systems Change Modeling

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  1. Systems Change Modeling Scenarios for System-Wide Change For Consideration in HEARTH Performance Measure Goal-Setting Jenny Helbraun Abramson Sonoma County Continuum of Care Coordinator

  2. How the modeling was done • The slides that follow use Sonoma County HMIS data, its housing inventory, and 2011 Count data to simulate client movement through, and out of, the Sonoma County Continuum of Care. • This model uses systems change options provided in the simulation exercise used at the April 2011 CCPG meeting. For the sake of this experiment, we have standardized known average exit rates per month and destinations for the existing system, in a database model. • Changes were introduced to this model one at a time. The charts that follow show the numbers of homeless clients moving into permanent housing over 6 months (in blue) and the number left un-served over 6 months (in red).

  3. Adding units PSH = Permanent Supportive Housing TH = Transitional Housing ES = Emergency Shelter RRH = Rapid Re-Housing

  4. Increasing exit rates PSH = Permanent Supportive Housing TH = Transitional Housing ES = Emergency Shelter RRH = Rapid Re-Housing

  5. Re-purposing existing services PSH = Permanent Supportive Housing TH = Transitional Housing ES = Emergency Shelter RRH = Rapid Re-Housing

  6. Limitations & Considerations • As with any modeling, this is very simplified. Actual client pathways probably take longer and would result in fewer placed in permanent housing, and more waiting for (or giving up on) services. • Client preference is not reflected in this model at all. • What other changes should we test with this model? • ????

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