Overview of the Texas Environmental Research Consortium s Air Quality Program

1. Overview of the Texas Environmental Research Consortium�s Air Quality Program Jay Olaguer Houston Advanced Research Center December 16, 2003

2. Background on TERC Consortium established in February 2002. Stakeholders include the Greater Houston Partnership, Environmental Defense, and Texas local government entities. Initial funding from NOAA Coastal Impact Assistance Program of $4Million/yr x 2 yrs. HARC hired by TERC as Research Management Organization (RMO).

3. TERC Goals To coordinate with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to develop and implement an air quality research agenda that augments the TCEQ's research efforts and leads to improved understanding of ozone science and air modeling in East Texas. To support and facilitate the development of sound air quality policies in the State of Texas during the mid-course review of the SIP in 2004 and beyond.

4. TERC Board of Directors R. Bruce LaBoon, Chairman - Partner, Locke Liddell & Sapp LLP The Honorable Lee Brown - Mayor, City of Houston The Honorable Robert Eckels - County Judge, Harris County The Honorable Carl Griffith - County Judge, Jefferson County The Honorable Ron Harris - Texas Clean Air Working Group, County Judge, Collin County The Honorable Margaret Keliher - County Judge, Dallas County Tom Leppert - Chairman, Greater Dallas Chamber of Commerce Jim Marston - Director, Environmental Defense - Texas Dr. John Stobo - President, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston

5. Science Advisory Committee Dr. Gerald North - Texas A&M University Dr. David Allen - The University of Texas at Austin Dr. Sam Atkinson - University of North Texas Dr. Daewon Byun - University of Houston Dr. Peter Daum - Brookhaven National Laboratory, U.S. DOE Dr. Harvey Jeffries - University of North Carolina Dr. Jim Meagher - NOAA Dr. Richard McNider - University of Alabama in Huntsville Dr. Spyros Pandis - Carnegie Mellon University Dr. Melanie Sattler - University of Texas at Arlington Jim Thomas - Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

6. Strategic Research Plan Delivered under Project H4 along with status reports on particulate matter (PM) research and transport issues in Texas. Used to guide selection of TERC projects with input from Science Advisory Committee. Improvement of emissions inventories identified as most pressing need.

7. Project Distribution Science Synthesis: 1 project Point and Area Emissions: 10 projects Mobile & Non-Road Emissions: 7 projects Air Modeling & Monitoring: 7 projects Policy Guidance: 3 projects

8. Research Highlights: Point and Area Emissions Quantified emissions from fires (H3). Demonstrated use of CO2 laser in screening method for leak detection (H5). Use of �top-down� methods to reconcile emissions with ambient observations (H6, H13). Collected survey data from HGA plant sites to better quantify emissions from flares, cooling towers and fugitives (H7A). Small-scale diesel generators found to be much more numerous (>10,000) than was previously estimated (<1000) in Houston region (H10).

9. Research Highlights: Mobile and Non-Road Emissions Projects H8 & H18 looked at cars, trucks, agricultural equipment, ships, and trains. Mileage rates in Harris County similar to MOBILE6 defaults for vehicles >11 years. High emitter fraction based on local data twice as high as MOBILE6 default. Agricultural emissions based on census data much higher than EPA model default.

10. Research Highlights: Air Modeling Project H1 helped explain and alleviate problem of simulating the depth of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Project H13 will develop efficient methods for modeling highly intermittent emissions of very reactive VOCs and predicting their air impacts. NOx problem discovered due to MOBILE6. Project H17 improves simulation of the Urban Heat Island effect. Project H19 provides TCEQ with better tools for computing back-trajectories of polluted air.

11. Research Highlights: Policy Guidance Project H9 analyzed survey data to assess incentives for alternative transportation. Project H13 identifies potential bright line in highly reactive VOC (HRVOC) ambient concentrations (e.g., 100 ppbC ethylene). Projected H14 estimated impact of non-compliance at $24-36B NPV over 10 yrs. Project H20 evaluates ways to better implement TERP and meet HGA�s NOx reduction goal using better diesel technology.

12. Overall Project Status 8 fully completed (H3, H4, H5, H7, H8B.MOD, H8B.SPA, H8C.AGR, H14) 5 with add-on work (H1, H6B, H6E, H8B.T/H, H8C.MAR) 10 additional active 5 new (H22, H23, H24, H25, H26) TOTAL of 28 projects

13. New Project Requests from TCEQ TCEQ staff generated a list of desirable research projects. TCEQ�s Science Coordinating Committee (SCC) evaluated suggested projects. Several SCC members are also on SAC. TCEQ asked TERC to fund several most highly rated projects (quality rank 5). HARC chose 5 projects from TCEQ list with SAC consultation.

14. New Project H22:Permit Data for VOC/NOx Need more accurate data beyond annual average emissions. State permits can yield info on maximum allowed release levels for VOC/NOx. Data typically inaccessible to emissions modelers. Project will convert data from hardcopy to digital format.

15. New Project H23:Model Use of Satellite Data Met models have difficulty in simulating surface heating and moisture. This deficiency has major adverse impacts on wind flow and pollutant dispersion. Incorporation of GOES satellite data significantly improves model performance. Project will continue testing and evaluation of new data assimilation technique.

16. New Project H24:Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Basic problem of deciding best model representations and parameter values. Data assimilation uses observations to drive models toward correct behavior. EnKF is a rigorous data assimilation technique used in global change research. Project will apply EnKF in a novel way to MM5 model with simple chemistry added. Project will also use EnKF to identify optimal timing and location of adaptive (e.g. aircraft) measurements (useful for TxAQS 2005-2006).

17. New Project H25:Nighttime Reservoirs of NOx Air quality models have difficulty in simulating cycling of NOx involving temporary reservoirs such as HNO3, HONO, HO2NO2, and N2O5.. Nighttime chemistry can influence daytime NOx availability. Total reactive nitrogen = NOx + reservoirs Export of total reactive nitrogen (NOy) at all hours can influence NOx in remote areas. Project will use novel analytical technique (ion drift chemical ionization mass spectrometry) to measure nitrogen reservoirs at night.

18. New Project H26:Modeling of Industrial Plumes Extension of on-going work involving perfluorocarbon tracers (H6A). Project will make use of 2001-2002 Baylor aircraft data for highly reactive olefins. Project will use two different dispersion/ chemistry models (LES-chem & LRPM) to model industrial plumes in the HGB area.

19. Other Immediate Priorities Dallas Fort-Worth Area Projects Role of transport NOx abatement technologies for Ellis County Emissions from small scale diesel generators and locomotives Diesel technology assessment for TERP Air Research Information Infrastructure to support 2005-2006 TxAQS field study

20. Future Research Funding Expect funding from Texas Legislature of $2-3 Million/yr x 2 yrs RFQ identified Research Team University of Texas at Austin Texas A&M University University of Houston University of Alabama at Huntsville University of North Carolina Battelle PNL To be supplemented by RfPs and sole-source