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Problem 13-20 Yacht Construction Project

Problem 13-20 Yacht Construction Project. Expected completion time is 21 months Project variance is 4 Standard deviation is 2 (square root of 4) Total project completion time follows a normal probability distribution, so can be graphed as an area under a bell-shaped curve.

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Problem 13-20 Yacht Construction Project

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  1. Problem 13-20Yacht Construction Project • Expected completion time is 21 months • Project variance is 4 • Standard deviation is 2 (square root of 4) • Total project completion time follows a normal probability distribution, so can be graphed as an area under a bell-shaped curve Jan White, BUS340

  2. A. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months or less? • z = (due date - expected date) divided by the standard deviation • z = (17-21)/4 = -4/2 = -2 (two standard deviations to the left of the mean) • z = 1-.97725(from Appendix A) = 0.0227, or 2.27% probability Jan White, BUS340

  3. B. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 months or less? • z = (20 - 21)/2 • z = -1/2 (one-half of the deviation to the left of the mean) • z = 1 - .69146 = 0.3085, or 30.85% probability Jan White, BUS340

  4. C. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months or less? • z = (23 - 21)/2 • z = 2/2 (one standard deviation to the right of the mean) • z = 0.84134, or 84.13% probability Jan White, BUS340

  5. D. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months or less? • z = (25-21)/2 • z = 4/2 (two standard deviations to the right of the mean) • z = 0.97725, or 97.73% probability Jan White, BUS340

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