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Purpose. Broad overview of water resource situation ADWR planning benchmark for management goals Public/media information requests Linked to development of hydrologic models. Characteristics. Budgets are complex Based on best available data Part of long-term view

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Presentation Transcript
purpose
Purpose
  • Broad overview of water resource situation
  • ADWR planning benchmark for management goals
  • Public/media information requests
  • Linked to development of hydrologic models
characteristics
Characteristics
  • Budgets are complex
  • Based on best available data
  • Part of long-term view
  • Combination of hydrology, policy & art
limitations
Limitations
  • AMA-wide calculations
  • Multiple assumptions
  • Some factors are directly measured, some are estimated, and some are long-term averages
budget components
Supplies:

Natural recharge

mountain front, streambed

Incidental recharge

Groundwater inflow

CAP & surface water use

Effluent use

“Cuts to the aquifer”

Demands:

Agriculture

Municipal

Industrial

Riparian transpiration

Groundwater outflow

Other:

Direct recharge

In-lieu recharge

Allowable Pumping

Budget Components
projection components
Projection Components

Typical factors used in projections

  • Municipal
      • population
      • gpcd
  • Industrial
      • population
      • specific users (power plants, dairies, mines, etc.)
  • Agricultural
      • acreage
      • application rate
      • efficiency
      • utilization rate

“Benchmarked” to Dept. of Economic Security totals

Based on water provider trends & targets

Trends and consultation with sector representatives and others

Trends and consultation with other agencies, irrigation districts and growers

process
Process

Projections developed as part of a process (TMP, SYTF, etc.)

  • Outside input (TACs, public comment, etc.)
  • Consensus based
    • Some differences among AMAs as to how conservative individual assumptions are
  • Professional judgement
testing
Testing
  • Scenarios
      • Impact of varying a range of factors at once
  • Sensitivity analysis
      • Impact of varying a single factor, while holding others constant
  • Interactive planning budgets
      • Instantaneous scenarios
      • Ability to easily update projections and assumptions
conclusions
Conclusions
  • ADWR planning budgets are most useful for examining trends and progress towards meeting management goals at a macro (AMA-wide) level
  • Sub-basin conditions are not reflected in water budgets
  • Budgets include a myriad of assumptions, some of which may be proved wrong in the long term
  • Budgets are a powerful tool for testing impacts of programs over time