Mitigation and Shared Vision—Review of the Science and Stakes in the Climate Negotiations Workshop of the Lead Coordinators of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change UNCC/UNECA Addis Ababa 13 to 15 August 2012 Mariama Williams Global Governance for Development Programme South Centre Geneva, Switzerland All statements are personal to the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the South Centre or its Member States. Updated: 23/01/08
Outline- Shared Vision & Mitigation • Africa: Situation & Context vis-à-vis CC • Shared Vision & Mitigation state of play : • Long-term global reductions goal • Peaking Year • Equitable Access to sustainable development and Africa • Observations
Mitigation State of Play • According to Hansen and others: • Earth is out of energy balance • Global warming is somewhere between 0.7-0.8C • More warming in the pipeline • Highly intensive carbon intensive sources can push climate science beyond tipping point
Since IPCC AR 4: evidence of urgency • Summer sea ice cover in the artic is decreasing (2007 and 2001) to an area 40% less than a few decades earlier • Artic sea ice thickness reduce (faster than IPCC climate model predicted) • The Greenland and Antarctic ice –shedding ice at a rate now several hundred cubic Kilo a year. Mountain glaciers are receding rapidly all around the world fresh water availability of major rivers
Projected regional impacts in developing country regions (IPCC AR4, 2007)
Africa and climate change • With current 0.74 C of warming, Africa: • Severe rain • Progressive drying of soils • Threats to food production • Increase in sea surface temperature->Sahel drought (1980s) & drought in Horn of Africa (2000s)
Africa and climate change • With increase warming ( 1.5C) by 2050: Average production losses in African maize, 22% Yield losses in other crops: sorghum (17%), millet (17%), groundnut (17%) and cassava (8%)
Emission reduction is needed to restore earth energy balance • Science calls for: 350 PPM ( 450 ppm CO2eq represents upper limit on concentration of heat-trapping emissions.) Temp. 1, 1.5-2C • A 6%/year decrease of fossil fuel emission (2013); 15% (2020) • About 100 GT reforestation • Clean energy
Within the context of UNFCCC the need for reducing global emissions has been recognized… The convention argues for the stabilization of the climate system
Shared Vision • Article 2 The Ultimate Objective…is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Shared Vision… • The Bali Action Plan 1. (a) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention… 1 (b) (i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them… 1 (b) (ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner; (shared vision with CBDR,RC, equity, historical responsibiliteis)
Cancun & Durban • 2 degree C: limiting average global temp blow 2C above pre-industrial level (review 2013-2015). • Work towards global goal for substantially reducing emissions • Global emissions or carbon budget (the overall amount of carbon that can be released into the atmosphere… • (1CP.16 para 5 & 6)
SHARED VISION • Long term emissions reductions goal • Peaking year Context: Mitigation I(b)(i); 1 (b) (ii) Adaptation Finance $30b/$100b -2020/??? Technology transfer (modalities and targets) Capacity building • EASD
Share vision cont • global long term emissions reductions goal/equitable burden sharing based on Historical emissions • In near future Africa will be developing more rapidly emitting more so implication of Shared vision is important for Africa—mitigation (low carbon-methane, finance (now for adaptation, TT and Capacity building). • Capacity building important for Africa
The equity approach has implications for the various topics under LCA. • Of the cumulative global emissions Annex I countries accounted for 72% of the total compared to their share of population of about 25%. Developing countries accounted 28% of the total. The overutilization by Annex I was 568 Gt, the same as the under-utilisation by developing countries.
Long term global reduction goals Long term global emission reduction goal: a) temperature, 1,1.5, 2 degree C b) Concentration (ppm)--(2 degree consistent with 400-450 ppm) c) Lt.Global Emission Reduction Goal (1990, 2050) d) Aggregate Lt. ER G for Annex I (1990, 2050)
Lt Global Emission reductions goal by 2050* At least 50% from 1990 levels 50% from 1990 levels 85% from 1990 levels (AOSIS) 95 % from 1990 levels (Africa) More than 100% from 1990 levels (Boliva et al) *draft shared vision in FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/Inf. 29 Oct.2010
Aggregate Lt. Emissions reduction goal by 2050 for Annex I parties 75-85% from 1990 levels Around 80% from 1990 levels 80% from 1990 levels (EU) At least 80-95% from 1990 levels (AOSIS) More than 95% from 1990 levels (Africa)
Global Peaking Year • Global peaking year should also be discussed in the context of equity and to be preceded by a paradigm for the equitable sharing of the atmospheric space or resource. Like the global goals for temperature and emissions reduction, global peaking year have implications for the responsibilities of developing countries or for their options in their emissions and thus their economic pathways.
non-Annex 1 paths for three Annex 1 reduction levels (for 2015 global peak)
Observations • As can be expected, the required mitigation in non-Annex1 a countries is greater: • if the global path peaks earlier. • If Annex 1 reductions are less ambitious.
Conclusions Maintaining a reasonable chance of keeping warming below 2°C requires rapid global reductions. If peaking is not well before 2020, warming will not be “likely” to remain below 2°C. Weak mitigation in Annex 1 countries will imply dramatic reductions in non-Annex 1 countries, for any of these global pathways. Ambitious mitigation in Annex 1 countries (i.e., -40% by 2020) will also imply less dramatic reductions (by ~5 GtCO2eq in 2020) …
Conclusion shared vision • Shift from developed countries effort to developing countires. This will keep developing countries poor. • So shared vision boils down to a political discussion it is not simply a scientific numbers only decision. So cannot have the numbers until you have a clear understanding of: Finance, technolgy and capacity building deliverables in the context of CBDR and Equity
Bottom line on Shared Vision • Options: give figure say 50% by 2050 and no context • Give figure and context: AI peaking, $ finance, tech for NAI. • So ultimately there are at least 5 numbers that must be taken account of not simply 2-3, as advocate by developed parties: • Global cut, say 50% by 2050 • X cut for AI, 80-100%
Implied residual cut for NAI • How much finance and technology for NAI • Possible seven figure:
Equitable Access to sustainable development & Africa • In the final analysis shared visions is ultimately about how do you burden sharing of the remaining carbon space? • Hence the context for the numbers is the entire BAP and the convention.
EASD • Since Tanjin, the Africa group has been projecting this strategy. Calling for clear ideas about adaptation, finance, TT (beyond what is now in the tech mechanisms; targets); capacity building in addition to overall mitigation approach . All of these things impacts how development takes place now and into the future. • Since Cancun focus on equitable access to sustainable development
EASD • EASD is how to divide up the remaining atmospheric space (how do you divide up the Long term emissions reducion goal and the peaking year issues between AI and NAI • (Implies: Carbon budget) • EASD is an integrated approach form long term emission.
… The balance in the UNFCCC … Common commitments Differentiated commitments All countries Mitigation (voluntary for developing countries) Information provision and exchange Cooperation in technology transfer, R&D, adaptation, education and training, GHG sink and reservoir conservation and management Developed countries Common commitments + Mitigation (mandatory) Financing UNFCCC implementation Financing adaptation Technology transfer Provide detailed information Balance of commitments Respective capabilities Intra- and inter-generational equity Sustainable development, in particular of developing countries, within an enabling international economic system
Meeting the E-D-E imperatives Emission reductions Finance and Technology Adaptation Global carbon budget (2010-2050) GHG concentra-tions in the atmosphere Global temperature increase Regional temperature increase Annex I carbon share Developed countries to take the lead in cutting emissions (existing UNFCCC obligation) Non-Annex I carbon share Bending emissions growth downward while keeping economic growth curve upward Adaptation impacts, costs and actions in developing countries in context of sustainable development Mitigation costs and actions in developing countries in context of sustainable development Developed countries provide finance, technology transfer to developing countries to support mitigation and adaptation actions in context of sustainable development (existing UNFCCC obligations) Finance Finance Technology Technology Equity and Sustainable Development in the Context of Climate Change
EASD • Issue: numbers first or Context first? • Partners and some developing countries want to set LTGoal and peak year before all the others are decided (offering the GCF, TM/TEC ).
The Africa group and many other developing countries, including the BASICs would like to see clear understanding and agreement of all aspects, including targts, operationalization in the framework of EASD. • Important link between GNP and emission so decoupling have strong implication for development • TT must go beyond trading arrangmetn to skills building and absorbitve capacity and development.
Let’s be clear … The climate negotiations are not an environmental negotiations. These are essentially negotiations over the development future of developing countries; over how global economic relationships and national economic futures will be shaped as a result of addressing and adapting to the inevitable impacts of climate change Our countries’ industrialization and development future are at stake. Africa has a significant role to play in highlighting the economic, trade and development implications of the possible results from the climate change negotiations
Mariama Williams firstname.lastname@example.org www.southcentre.org Tel: +41 22 791 80 50Fax: +41 22 798 85 31 17-19 Chemin du Champ d'Anier1209 Petit Saconnex, Geneva Thank you