Unit #2 Political Behaviors & Beliefs

1. Unit #2 Political Behaviors & Beliefs In Class Lecture & Activities

2. Political Culture:The widely shared beliefs, values and norms that citizens share about government. • Characteristics • Liberty (rights-cannot infringe on the rights of others) • Equality • Of opportunity more than equality of result • Political equality more than economic equality • “American Dream” – reverence for property/capitalism/acquisition of wealth Conflict between liberty (associated with capitalism) and equality (associated with democracy) led to federal action: • In Progressive Era to bring corporations under control; In 1960s Great Society Programs • Democracy • Civic Duty • Individual Responsibility (as opposed to collectivism)

3. Sources of Political Culture • Constitution: developed in an “adversarial spirit” • Distrust of government • Religious beliefs • Negative view of human nature • Protestant work ethic • The family • Absence of class consciousness • Culture War: orthodox and progressive views of moral issues (abortion, prayer in schools, gay marriage, drugs, etc.)

4. Mistrust of government • Distrust of Government has grown, esp. since the 1960s (Vietnam, Watergate, inflation-70s, Clinton, Bush) • Political Efficacy: the sense that one can both understand & influence public policy (Internal) or that the government will respond to the citizenry (External) • Political tolerance-more in the abstract than in the concrete

6. Trust in Government

7. BOWLING ALONE Robert Putnam- Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. Putnam uses an observation about the decline in bowling leagues in the US as a metaphor to describe the increasing alienation of Americans from their families and communities, and the political process. One crucial factor leading to the social isolation is television. Says Putnam, "People watch Friends on TV -- they don't have them.” Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community is published by Simon & Schuster, 2000. Read handout in your groups & be prepared to discuss the following questions: • What is Social Capital? • According to Putnam, there is a connection between the strength of social capital and political awareness & involvement. Describe this connection & explain if you believe social capital is important to democracy. • What activities do you and your family participate in that contribute to the social capital in your community /in our nation? • Do you believe that technology has created new & equally valuable avenues for creating a strong social fabric for our society? (Think instagram, facebook, tumblr, blogs, tweeting, cellphones, etc.)

8. Types Public Opinion:Ch. 7, 155-158 • Types of Publics • Elites: Those with disproportionate amount of political resources • Raise issues and help set the national agenda • Influence the resolution of issues, setting the norm for policy options • Attentive: those with an active interest in gov and politics (activists) • Mass: those with little interest in gov and politics • Types of Opinions • Stable: change very little (e.g. death penalty) • Fluid: change frequently (e.g. presidential popularity) • Latent: dormant, but may be aroused (e.g. military draft) • Salient: have some personal importance to individuals (e.g. Brady and gun control) • Consensus: shared by 75% of the people or more (e.g. having a balanced budget) • Polarized: shared by less than 75% (e.g. gun control, ERA)

9. measurements of Public Opinion • By elections (deceiving-don’t know WHY people voted as they did) • Straw (informal) polls-inaccuracies • Scientific polls – Validity of polls must consider: • Definition of universe: population to be measured (must be representative) • Selection of sampling • Random means-each person in universe has same chance of being selected • Representative sample - National polls typically require ~1500-2000 respondents • Sampling error: +/- results (low margin of error) • writing the questions to avoid bias • Uses of polls: Informs public, candidates, office-holders, and provides projections on election night via exit polls • Can influence how politicians vote – due to duty to constituents and goal to get re-elected • However, politicians want to avoid “flip-flopping,” “pandering,” and must consider “party position” in voting as well

10. measurements of Public Opinion Abuses of polls: • “Horse-race” mentality emphasized during campaigns at expense of issues • Pandering to whims of public by candidates and office-holders • Projections-may discourage voter turnout, especially in West • Election of 2000 as example Public Awareness & Interest in politics: • Surveys show a substantial lack of political knowledge: public unable to identify political figures or key issues • Secondary in importance to mass public

11. Who are these people? Who cares?

12. Who are these people? Who cares?

13. Political Socialization: process by which people acquire their political beliefs. • Race/Ethnicity • Whites: more conservative, greater support for Republicans • Blacks: more liberal, strongest & most loyal supporters of Democratic Party • Hispanics • Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans more liberal and supportive of Democrats • Cubans more conservative and supportive of Republicans • Asians: won by Democrats in last 3 presidential elections • Income/Social Class: • higher income more conservative & supportive of Republicans • lower income more liberal & supportive of Democrats • Family: Strongest. Stronger correlation between parent’s party affiliation than specific policy issues • Schools: Impart basic values (civic duty, patriotism). HS Gov classes tend to not change political orientation, but attending college tends to liberalize • Religion • Protestant - more conservative, esp Evangelicals • Catholic - tend to be more liberal, more accepted into mainstream Greater degree of conservativism on social issues (abortion, gay rights) Jewish - Liberal influence, strong support of Democratic Party

14. Gender Gap • Women more likely than men to vote Democratic • “Year of the Woman” 1992: many more women elected to Congress • Emily’s List • “Soccer Moms” (1992 H. Clinton) • “NASCAR Dads” (blue collar conservatives) • Million Mom March 2000: stricter gun control laws • “security moms” (2004) concerns about terrorism and national security drawing women to the Republican Party • Palin’s “Hockey Moms” (2008), “Mama Grizzlies” (2010) • 2012: Democrats charge the Republicans with a “War on Women” regarding reproductive rights/contraception • Sex-sensitive issues: abortion, pornography, gun control, health care, war provoke differences among the sexes • Geographic Region: • Solid South: traditionally Democratic, but increasingly now Republican • New England: traditionally Republican, but increasingly Democratic in recent years • Mass media: liberal elite • Level of political information is single best predictor of being liberal on civil rights/liberties issues • Elite opinion: • Shapes public policy and influences results, but does not define problems

16. 2012 Election http://www.morningsidecenter.org/teachable-moment/lessons/after-2012-election-exit-polls-demographics

18. Ideology: integrated set of beliefs & values that shape a person’s views. Liberalism: 18th century classical liberalism: Limited gov “That governments is best which governs least.” Gov is chief threat to liberty Role of government to protect property rights. 20th century Modern liberalism (New Deal Liberalism) Expanded role of gov Corporations seen as chief threat to liberty Role of gov to protect people’s well-being. • Smaller percentage of ideologues in our two-party system than in the multi-party systems used in Europe. • Most Americans tend to be non-ideological and more moderate in their beliefs

19. Political ideology: a consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue. Liberalism v. conservativism • Liberalism: • Strong influence of liberalism 1930s-1970s • Backlash 1980s & 1990s • Liberalism gone too far. Need to return to individualism and less reliance on big gov • Neoliberals • Less likely to rely upon gov as solution as New Deal liberals • Rise of Democratic Leadership Council with members Clintons, Harold Ford, Jr. • Obama & the return of New Deal Liberalism • Greater willingness to use the fed gov as tool to protect well-being of people

20. conservativism • Essentially Classical Liberalism • Resurgence since late 70s: • Reagan/Bush 41/ Bush 43 • 104th-109th Congresses (Gingrich “Contract with America”) • Strength in formerly “solid south,” Rocky Mtn., Great Plains • evangelical Christians • Strong support for tax cuts (Clinton, Bush 43) • Emphasis on private sector to solve problems • Neoconservatives & the “New Right” • Some emphasize social issues (school prayer, anti-abortion, anti-homosexuality) Known as the “Religious Right.” Use of faith-based initiatives by Bush 43. • Some focus on foreign policy and national security-war on terrorism & pre-emptive strikes (Iraq) • “Compassionate Conservatism”: Bush 43

21. Socialism • means of production, distribution, and exchange controlled by gov. • Western Europe • Weak in U.S. (associated with radicalism, goes against belief in individualism, American Dream, and suspicion of big gov.) • Libertarianism • Extreme emphasis on individual liberty • Extreme cutback on role of gov.-gov should only defend the nation

22. Political Spectrum Quiz1-Where are you?2-What Do these Labels Mean?3-Were the Questions Relevant, why or why not? AUTHORITARIAN LEFT RIGHT LIBERTARIAN

24. 2008 presidential candidates

25. 2012 Presidential candidates

26. VP Candidates Ideology Scores

27. Ch. 8: Voter TurnOUt • Historical Qualifications for Suffrage • Religion (eliminated by state legislatures) • Property (eliminated by state legislatures) • Race (eliminated by 15th Amendment-1870) • Supreme Court’s interpretation: denial of right to vote could not be solely on basis of race • Methods used to disenfranchise: • Literacy test, poll tax, grandfather clause, white primary • Sex (eliminated by 19th Amendment-1920) • Income (eliminated by 24th Amendment banning the poll tax-1964) • Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) • Minimum age of 21 (eliminated by 26th Amendment-1971) • Current Qualifications (set by states): • Citizenship Felons • Residency Registration (except ND)

28. B. Voter TurnOUt in u.s. compared to foreign nations • Voter turnout=number of those who voted/number of those age-eligible to vote. • V.A.P. derived from Census Bureau • Number of people 18+, but many of those are ineligible (felons, prisoners, aliens) • Indicates a sharp decline in voter turnout post 1960 • V.E.P. – an alternate measure of those eligible to vote • Does not indicate a significant decline in voter turnout • Presidential Elections US ~50%, Midterm Congressional ~30-40%, Lower state/local about 10% *Decline since 1960 but rose slightly in 2008 62.3%; 2012 - 57.5% • Comparable industrialized nations in West ~90% BUT • no compulsion penalties in U.S. • multi-party system, more choice • automatic/same day registration

29. Vep: greenvap: yellow

30. Voter turnout: federal elections 1964-2006

32. Reasons for low Voter TurnOUt • Institutional barriers • Registration: National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (Motor Voter Bill) Has not had major impact • “Ballot Fatigue” • Excessive number of elections. • General election > primary election • National election > state • Presidential elections have highest turnout compared to Congressional • Absentee Ballot difficulties • YOUNG have lowest turnout (since 26th Amendment voter turnout declined) • Political Reasons • Lack of political efficacy • Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, politics • Lack of strong 2-party competition • Weakness of parties in mobilizing voters • 19th century parties controlled elections: printed ballots (“vote early & vote often”) • 1890: Australian ballot- government printed ballot, uniform in size and shape, cast in secret

33. In the last half of the 20th century, voter turnout in federal elections has declined. During the same period, voter turnout has been higher in presidential elections than in midterm elections. • Identify two factors that have contributed to the overall decline in turnout in federal elections and explain how each factor has contributed to the overall decline. • Identify and explain two reasons why voter turnout has been higher in presidential elections than in midterm elections.

34. Who participates in politics? Six forms of participation Campaigners: vote and are active in campaigns; higher levels of education, strong party identification Communalists: engage in local political activity, non-partisan, higher education Parochial participants: do not vote, but engage in local politics • Inactive:(22%) don’t care, don’t vote • Tend to have little education, low incomes, are young, and many are African-American • Activists: (11%) participate in all forms of politics • highly educated, high incomes, middle-aged • Voting specialists: only vote; older, low levels of schooling and income

35. Who participates in politics? • Characteristics of those likely to vote: • Greatest predictor of voting EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT. • INCOME (higher) • AGE (older) • RACE/ETHNICITY (whites, then blacks, then Hispanics. BUT, blacks with same level of schooling and income tend to participate more than whites) • SEX (evening out, used to be men) • RELIGIOUS INVOLVEMENT social capital as a result of networking, increases participation • Does low voter turnout matter? • If cross section of U.S. represented then no but, • Class bias: older whites with higher incomes over-represented • Other forms of political participation: • Petitions local party meetings writing letters persuading others • Demonstrations/marches/rallies campaign contributions

36. Political participation by family income

37. Factors affecting Voter Behavior: • Geography • Solid South: Once solidly democratic, now Republican, however Demographics changing again? • Great Plains: Republican Trend • Rocky Mountain Region: Republican Trend (the “L”) • New England: Traditionally Republican but increasingly Democratic • Far West: Democratic Trend • Rust belt states: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana – swing states (55 combined electoral votes) • Sun belt states: from FL to CA; demographic changes as a result of Latino voters • http://americanpast.richmond.edu/voting/ • Political Party ID: Strongest predictor of voting behavior(7-point scale) • Straight ticket voting; decline in recent years, facilitated by party-column ballot • Split ticket voting; increase in recent years. Facilitated by office-bloc ballot. • Independents: rising number, tend to be young, college educated, above-average incomes • http://www.electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab2a_1.htm

38. Demographic Factors • Sex: Male v Female- • Race/Ethnicity: White v. Nonwhite • Social Class: Lower v. Upper • Religion: Protestant v. Catholic v. Jewish • Issues • Retrospective Voting-vote based on candidates past actions; have things gotten better or worse? • Prospective Voting: how you think the candidate will handle issues in office • Candidate Appeal: coattail effect of strong presidential candidate • Time • Maintaining elections: • Deviating elections: • Critical (“realigning” elections): long-term change in political alignment, e.g. 1860, 1896, 1932 • Midterm elections:

39. Ch. 10: Elections and campaigns Campaigns: I. Congressional Elections: Elections are regularly scheduled House: every two years Senate: every two years 1/3 of seats are up (continuous body) Fixed terms of office, no term limits Winner-take-all/single-member district system (House) (most votes wins the seat)/”at-large” (Senate) • Money, media, and polling have taken precedence over political parties as being more important in elections • Majority of campaign money spent on media buys • Two phases in elections: • Getting nominated-individual effort (compared with Europe-party nominates) • Getting elected

40. Congressional elections Factors affecting outcomes: 2. Advantages of incumbents: Franking privilege Campaign staff already in place Gerrymandered districts (“safe seats”) Committee service to district Name recognition Casework done for constituents Pork barrel projects for district (“earmarks”) Money (incumbents outspent challengers by 3:1 ratio) • Incumbency: greatest influence • Scope of incumbency advantage: • ~90% of congressmen who run are reelected; ~80% of senators • Lack of competitiveness: charges of “permanent Congress” and the call for term limits (overturned by SCOTUS)

41. http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php (Re-election rates 1964-2012)

42. Congressional elections Type of election: Other Factors Coattail effect in decline; elections are largely independent and evidence of decline in party power Party affiliation is still a strong predictor of voter behavior Media, especially important in Senate elections Issues, especially the economy Campaign consultants: increasing importance of and decreasing importance of political parties technology • Incumbent campaigns less competitive (safe seats) • Weak challenger campaigns uncompetitive, but more so than incumbents • Strong challenger campaigns more competitive than both • Open seat campaigns: the most competitive • House or Senate: • Midterm elections: loss of congressional seats for party of president • In House every year 1938-1994, exceptions: 1998, 2002 • 2006: President’s party lost seats and control of both Houses; 2010 President’s party lost control of House

46. Nomination Phase: II. Presidential elections: path to the presidency • Prior to nomination phase, there is the “invisible primary” or “The Great Mentioner” • Time and money to build a campaign • Individual can give $2,500 (adjusted for inflation 2011-12 election cycle); PACs $5,000 • Federal matching grants to pay for primary: must raise $5,000 in 20 states to qualify • Organization of large paid staff, volunteers, advisers on issues • Strategy and themes: • Incumbent vs. challenger • Tone • Theme • Timing • Target voter

47. Primary Elections Part of the Progressive reform of the early 20th century designed to weaken parties Types: Closed Used in most states Only registered party members can vote for partisan offices, no crossing of party lines Open: Any voter may get ballot of any party they choose Blanket: Voters can “mix and match” their votes. Voters are not required to affiliate with a political party and may vote for any candidate on the ballot. The candidate from each political party who receives the most votes in the primary advances to the general election. In CA: top two candidates proceed to the general election regardless of party affiliation (effective 2012 – Prop 14) Similar to a run-off election

48. III. Primary vs. general ELECTIONS A. Caucuses: B. Primaries: Other states use presidential primaries as method of sending delegates to national convention. Use of primaries has increased in the last 30 years. “Beauty contest primary:” states holding primaries or straw polls that have no bearing on the allocation of delegates to convention Delegate selection primary: voters vote for delegates to attend convention – no candidate preference listed OR some indicate preferences (not binding) OR Binding pres preference (voters indicate candidate choice) Importance of NEW HAMPSHIRE: the 1st state to hold primary each election year Dems use “superdelegates” (party leaders/office holders) to restore prominence at convention • Some states use conventions method of sending delegates to the national convention • Local caucuses—district convention—state convention—national convention. Each level selects delegates to attend higher level. • Importance of IOWA: 1st state to hold caucuses each presidential election year; gives candidates chance to build momentum for succeeding caucuses and primaries (contributions, media coverage)

49. National Convention: C. Nominating system • Selection of presidential nominee: a mere formality since the winner is known well ahead of time; emphasis on image and “ratification” rather than nomination • Selection of VP nominee • Chosen by pres nominee and rubber stamped by convention • “balance the ticket” • Development of party platform • Reconciliation and unification of party by end of convention

50. D. Analysis of nominating system: Pro: • Highly participatory: caucuses, primaries, conventions • Testing ground-weeds out the weaker candidates Con: • Low turnout rates • Too lengthy • Does not test candidates for qualities necessary as president; media game • Front-loading adversely affects states with later primaries • Voters in primaries tend to be better educated and more affluent than those in general elections • Delegates at caucuses and convention tend to be unrepresentative: more ideological, more activist, more education, less moderate, much more wealthy