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http://met.no/english/topics/nomek_2005/. http://www.comet.ucar.edu/. http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat.php. … Meteorology … an Art and a Science. Phil the Forecaster Chadwick The Meteorological Service of Canada. #0177  "Rideau Deformation Zone". #0594 "Deformation". The Forecaster’s Friend.

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meted.ucar/norlat.php

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  1. http://met.no/english/topics/nomek_2005/ http://www.comet.ucar.edu/ http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat.php

  2. … Meteorology …an Art and a Science Phil the Forecaster Chadwick The Meteorological Service of Canada

  3. #0177  "Rideau Deformation Zone"

  4. #0594 "Deformation"

  5. The Forecaster’s Friend NOMEK April 2005

  6. Analysis and Diagnosis

  7. Tempest in a Horse Trough X X X N

  8. Looking Upward at the deformation zone

  9. The Deformation Zone: Shape Season: All Year Phenomena: Air Mass and Circulation Sheaths Tools: GOES water vapor Forecast Challenges: • Locate the axis of maximum winds • Identify and predict the shortwave troughs and jet maxima in order to predict the location of the lift and energy conversions • Identify Comma and Anticomma patterns • Identify paired vorticity centers • Identify Conveyor Belts

  10. DZ Satellite Signature – Conceptual Model • Deformation Zone pattern with a • Col or Saddle Point in the Circulation • Confluent Asymptotes along the axis of dilatation • Pairs of vorticity maxima and vorticity minima • Pairs of Commas and Anticommas

  11. Key Features of the Deformation Zone X N Dry Surge

  12. Deformation Zone Conceptual Model X N COL X N

  13. DZ Shape Forecast Challenges • Identify and predict the location, orientation and shape of the deformation zone • Relate this information to the vorticity center intensity as well as the curvature of the related axis of maximum wind and the strength of the related wind maxima

  14. Circulation Centre and Relative Intensity from the Deformation Zone N X X N X N N X

  15. Circulation Centre and Relative Intensity from the Deformation Zone N X N X

  16. Circulation Centre and Relative Intensity from the Deformation Zone N X X N

  17. Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Common Bozo the Clown Pattern Very divergent, strong northerly flow pattern N X X N

  18. Straight Deformation Zone X N N X

  19. Convex Deformation Zone X N N X

  20. Convex Deformation Zone X N X N

  21. Convex Deformation Zone X N N X

  22. Concave Deformation Zone X N N X Bozo the Clown Deformation

  23. Concave Deformation Zone X N N X

  24. Concave Deformation Zone N X X N

  25. Quick Tricks to DZ Analysis From D to Z…

  26. Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Double Vorticity Maximum Pattern Analyzing any two of the features yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity minima can always be inferred. X N 4 3 N X 1 2

  27. N N N N N N N N N N X X X X X Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Double Vorticity Maximum Pattern – Strung together Analyzing any two yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity minima can always be inferred. This is a southwesterly Channeled jet pattern. A northwesterly channeled jet is more common.

  28. X N N X N N X N N N N N N X X X Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Double Vorticity Maximum Pattern – Strung together

  29. Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Double Vorticity Minimum Pattern Analyzing any two of the features yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity maxima can always be inferred. X N 4 3 N X 1 2

  30. X X X X N N N N X X X X X N N X Quick Deformation Zone Analysis The Double Vorticity Minimum Pattern – Strung together Analyzing any two yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity maxima can always be inferred. This is a northwesterly channeled jet pattern which is quite common. The Vorticity Maxima deformation zones can also be added into the conceptual model.

  31. X X X X N N N N X X X X X N N X The Associated Moisture Pattern with a Northwesterly Channeled Jet The Vorticity Maxima Comma Cloud Pattern The Vorticity Minima Anticomma Cloud Pattern

  32. Typical DZ Applications

  33. Deformation Zone Exercise W to E System DZ with N to S Def Zone Upstream… Main Jet splits. A significant amount of energy goes to the north… and a significant amount goes south. Slow moving system. Freezing Rain pattern X N N X X N X NE to SW System DZ…. Main Jet plunges south of the cloud pattern. A single upper trof and a cloud system that will translate. Note that the flow is not split. N X N

  34. X N N X X N X N X N Moisture Patterns to Features

  35. X N N X X N X N X N Features to Moisture Patterns

  36. All Kinds of Deformation Zones N X X X X X N X N X N X

  37. Using Human Artistic Strengths • Analyze and Diagnose the REAL Atmosphere first • Use all of the Conceptual Models in your Tool belt • Analyze and Diagnose the Numerical Atmosphere second • Focus and Zoom in from the Largest Scale into your Scale • Fix what needs fixing… • Remember to keep your sense of humour and have FUN, Fun, fun! • Meteorology is more than numbers… it is an art

  38. Questions? #0635 "Flash Flood"

  39. Questions? Goodbye Cruel World… Off To See the DeformationZone Margarita ville

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