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CHG rainfall products. Make best possible rainfall products for monitoring crop stress in areas of rain fed agriculture. Objectives:. CHG rainfall products. Make best possible rainfall products for monitoring crop stress in areas of rain fed agriculture. Objectives:. Results:.

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Chg rainfall products

CHG rainfall products

Make best possible rainfall products for monitoring crop stress in areas of rain fed agriculture.

Objectives:


Chg rainfall products1

CHG rainfall products

Make best possible rainfall products for monitoring crop stress in areas of rain fed agriculture.

Objectives:

Results:

CHIRP (1981 - present) and FTIP (2000 - present)

Global unbiased 0.05 degree pentads

available with 2 day lag

tinyurl.com/chg-products


Chg rainfall products2

CHG rainfall products

Make best possible rainfall products for monitoring crop stress in areas of rain fed agriculture.

Objectives:

Results:

CHIRP (1981 - present) and FTIP (2000 - present)

Global unbiased 0.05 degree pentads

available with 2 day lag

tinyurl.com/chg-products

Improved

Results:

CHIRP/FTIP blended with station data, 1 pentad lag


Quick overview of how we get there
Quick overview of how we get there…

  • Start with long term monthly average rainfall maps FCLIM

  • Aside: build monthly models of rainfall trained on TRMM-V7

    • derive coefficients a and b, such that rain rate = a * CCD + b (IRP)

    • where CCD is the percentage of observation where IR temp < threshold

  • Calculate IRP pentads from CPC IR data (2000 - present) and B1 IR data (1981 - 2008)

  • CHIRP (1981-present) = FCLIM * (IRP %normal)

  • Use TRMM-RT7 data (2000 - present)

  • FTIP (2000-present) = FCLIM * (IRP %normal + TRMM-RT7 %normal)/2

  • SPACE TIME


Chirp 2012 09 6

CHIRP 2012.09.6

0.05º, global, unbiased, rainfall pentad [mm] with 2 day lag.


Ftip 2012 09 6

FTIP 2012.09.6

0.05º, global, unbiased, rainfall pentad [mm] with 2 day lag.


Fclim derived wet season
FCLIM derived wet season

JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF


Validation analysis
Validation analysis

Season time series (2001 – 2011)

JFM [J1+F1, J1+M1, F1+M1, …, J11+F11, J11+M11, F11+M11]

. . .

JAS [J1+A1, J1+S1, A1+S1, …, J11+A11, J11+S11, A11+S11]

. . .

NDJ [N1+D1, N1+J2, D1+J2, …, N11+D11, N11+nan, D11+nan]

  • for each data set to validate, CHIRP, FTIP, TRMM, ECMWF…

  • build cubes of 2 month totals based on growing season.

time series

time series

FTIP

‘True’

latitude

latitude

longitude

longitude

correlation

bias ratio

mean absolute error

misses


Correlation with interpolated stations

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Correlation with interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

-0.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0


Bias ratio to interpolated stations

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Bias ratio to interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 >1.5


Mean absolute error with interpolated stations

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Mean Absolute Error with interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0 40 60 100 >100


Misses compared to interpolated stations

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Misses compared to interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0 1 4 9 >9


Chg station climate database
CHG Station Climate Database ECMWF

  • Daily rainfall observations from many public and private sources going back to the 1800’s

  • Currently ~950,000 records in db

  • Used to create spatially interpolated fields

  • Challenge identifying duplicates, non-zero zeroes

  • Constantly topping off db from available sources

  • Blended into satellite rainfall products




B1 fails 2
B1 fails 2 ECMWF


B1 fails 3
B1 fails 3 ECMWF


Summary
Summary ECMWF

  • 2 rainfall products, CHIRP (1981-present) & FTIP (2000-present)

  • Global, 0.05º, unbiased, pentads with 2 day lag.

  • Compare very well with existing rainfall products.

  • Developing an extensive station rainfall database

  • Used to blend station data with CHIRP and FTIP


Thank you
Thank You … ECMWF

  • Chris Funk

  • Greg Husak

  • Joel Michaelsen

  • Diego Pedreros

  • Andrew Verdin

  • Marty Landsfeld

  • Boleslo Romero

  • FEWS NET

  • Data available via anonymous ftp: tinyurl.com/chg-products


Chg rainfall product paths
CHG Rainfall Product Paths ECMWF

CHG Stations database

FCLIMS, 1920 present, 5Km, 5days

FCLIM

FTIPS

2005-prst,

5Km, 5days

FTIP

CHIRPS

1980-present, 5Km, 5days

CHIRP

IRP

2000-prnt

Join 80-prst

BIRP

1980-2008

CCD model


Some data issues
Some data issues. ECMWF

  • B1 glitches

  • Station zeroes not zero




How to make fat clims
How to make FAT clims blue

CHIRP clim 09.6

pentad,

pixel,

= 2176 points/year

p-3 p-2 p-1 p p+1 p+2 p+3


Fclim derived wet season1
FCLIM derived wet season blue

JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF


Validation africa correlations

CMORPH CPC-Unified PERSIANN

Validation - Africa correlations

TRMM-V6 TRMM-V7 TRMM-RT7

CHIRP FTIP-V7 FTIP-RT7


Validation correlations red

CMORPH ECMWF

Validation - Correlations red

TRMM-RT7 FTIP-RT7

-1.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0


Validation correlations 2 red

PERSIANN TRMM-V6

Validation - Correlations 2 red

TRMM-V7 CHIRP-V7

-1.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0


Validation correlations 2 blue

PERSIANN TRMM-V6

Validation - Correlations 2 blue

TRMM-V7 CHIRP-V7

-1.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0


Validation mean absolute error 2

PERSIANN TRMM-V6

Validation - Mean Absolute Error 2

TRMM-V7 CHIRP-V7

0 40 60 100 >100


Validation bias ratio 2

PERSIANN TRMM-V6

Validation - Bias ratio 2

TRMM-V7 CHIRP-V7

0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 >1.5


Validation misses 2

PERSIANN TRMM-V6

Validation - Misses 2

TRMM-V7 CHIRP-V7

0 1 4 9 >9


Correlation with interpolated stations1

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Correlation with interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

-1.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0


Bias ratio to interpolated stations1

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Bias ratio to interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 >1.5


Mean absolute error with interpolated stations1

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Mean Absolute Error with interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0 40 60 100 >100


Misses compared to interpolated stations1

TRMM-RT7 ECMWF

Misses compared to interpolated stations

CHIRP FTIP

0 1 4 9 >9


B1 fails
B1 fails ECMWF


B1 fails 4
B1 fails 4 ECMWF